Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1236 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. STRONGER CELLS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE VFR BUT MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WITH MUCH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 02Z. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL...GIVEN THE SLOW MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR...AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DIMINISHING A BIT AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
COLD FRONT WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHWEST. DUE TO ALREADY WET GROUND...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS OF FIVE INCHES OR MORE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS ARE ANY INDICATION...
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A BIT IN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MID DAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING. WHILE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY THEN...IT/S NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE SATURDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER IN
THE OFFING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  81  60  78 /  50  70  70  20
CAMDEN AR         71  88  66  84 /  20  60  70  40
HARRISON AR       68  78  56  75 /  80  80  50  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  83  64  82 /  20  70  70  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  84  65  82 /  20  70  70  40
MONTICELLO AR     73  89  69  85 /  20  60  70  40
MOUNT IDA AR      74  83  60  80 /  30  70  70  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  81  58  77 /  80  80  50  10
NEWPORT AR        71  81  61  79 /  30  70  70  30
PINE BLUFF AR     72  85  67  82 /  20  70  70  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  81  60  80 /  50  80  60  10
SEARCY AR         70  82  64  79 /  30  70  70  30
STUTTGART AR      72  86  66  81 /  20  70  70  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.

&&

AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
847 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
847 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BUT THE TORNADO
THREAT CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED ENTIRELY.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS...THE MOISTURE LADEN
AIR MASS COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY FINALLY ALLOWING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO
THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN. THE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF AND WILL COVER A MUCH
LARGER AREA THAN TODAY OR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/55

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1058 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ034-045>047-310445-
LONOKE AR-MONROE AR-PRAIRIE AR-WOODRUFF AR-
1058 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WOODRUFF...PRAIRIE...
NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND EXTREME EASTERN LONOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM
CDT...

AT 1053 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DES ARC TO NEAR HAZEN TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF PARKERS CORNER...AND MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HAZEN...              DE VALLS BLUFF...     CLARENDON...
  ULM...                STUTTGART MUNI ARPT...
  ROE...                PEPPERS LANDING...    PARKERS CORNER...
  HALLSVILLE...         DOBBS LANDING...      ALLENDALE...
  TOLLVILLE...          SLOVAK...             KEEVIL...
  FAIRMOUNT...          DAGMAR WMA...         COTTON PLANT...
  CHILDERS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 192 AND 213.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3501 9124 3478 9123 3456 9141 3460 9177
      3478 9159 3495 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 273DEG 15KT 3493 9153 3479 9153
          3462 9168

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1100 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CADDO GAP               34.40N 93.62W
05/30/2013                   MONTGOMERY         AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN CADDO GAP.

&&

58

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>