Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
203 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 02Z. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL...GIVEN THE SLOW MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR...AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DIMINISHING A BIT AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
COLD FRONT WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHWEST. DUE TO ALREADY WET GROUND...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS OF FIVE INCHES OR MORE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS ARE ANY INDICATION...
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A BIT IN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MID DAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING. WHILE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY THEN...IT/S NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE SATURDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER IN
THE OFFING.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  81  71  81 /  60  30  50  70
CAMDEN AR         70  85  71  88 /  50  10  20  60
HARRISON AR       67  82  68  78 /  60  30  80  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  85  73  83 /  50  10  20  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  70
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  73  89 /  30  10  20  60
MOUNT IDA AR      72  84  74  83 /  50  10  30  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  82  68  81 /  60  30  80  80
NEWPORT AR        71  83  71  81 /  60  30  30  70
PINE BLUFF AR     71  85  72  85 /  30  10  20  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  83  71  81 /  50  20  50  80
SEARCY AR         70  83  70  82 /  50  20  30  70
STUTTGART AR      71  85  72  86 /  40  20  20  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
847 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
847 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BUT THE TORNADO
THREAT CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED ENTIRELY.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS...THE MOISTURE LADEN
AIR MASS COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY FINALLY ALLOWING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO
THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN. THE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF AND WILL COVER A MUCH
LARGER AREA THAN TODAY OR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
935 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FERNDALE                34.78N 92.55W
05/30/2013                   PULASKI            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            UP TO THREE FEET OF WATER WAS REPORTED OVER LOCAL
            ROADWAYS.

&&

55

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1028 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ033-034-310415-
WHITE AR-WOODRUFF AR-
1028 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WOODRUFF AND EASTERN
WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1024 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCRAE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH
OF SEARCY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEARCY...             AUGUSTA...            WEST POINT...
  PRYOR...              KENSETT...            JUDSONIA...
  HURRICANE LAKE WMA... HIGGINSON...          GEORGETOWN...
  WORDEN...             WALKER...             GRIFFITHVILLE...
  GREGORY...            TURTLE LAKE...        THREE SISTERS LAKE...
  THREE PRONG LAKE...   TAYLOR SLOUGH...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3539 9137 3516 9125 3508 9170 3524 9179
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 249DEG 23KT 3515 9173

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1029 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE     34.67N 93.00W
05/30/2013                   GARLAND            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO FEET OF WATER REPORTED ACROSS A NUMBER OF ROADWAYS.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1034 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TULL                    34.44N 92.57W
05/30/2013                   GRANT              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE FELL ONTO A VEHICLE WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED INSIDE THE
            VEHICLE.

&&

55