Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
SINCE LATE MORNING...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY NOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH OF I-20. WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE TOP OF BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST SOUTH
OF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES PUSHING EAST FROM TX AND THE ARKLATEX. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT (6.0+ C/KM) AND CONVECTIVE LAYER BULK WIND SHEAR (40 TO 60
KTS) HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL RANGING FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZE. THIS SITUATION IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WELL INTO THE
EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THIS CONVECTION IS DECIDEDLY ELEVATED ABOVE
THE SURFACE AND THUS SHOULD HAVE RELATIVELY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. IT IS ALSO
FORTUNATE THAT THE RECIPE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT QUITE AS
GOOD AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL
STILL BE ABLE TO FUEL HIT AND MISS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD
BE A LITTLE TROUBLESOME IF FALLING IN LOCATIONS WHERE RAINFALL WAS
PARTICULARLY HEAVY YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SHIFTING
OFF THE EAST GRADUALLY BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TOMORROW IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION HAS A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. DECENT CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLY AND CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS BRIEF QUIET WINDOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS A VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK IN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOW MUCH BETTER THAT THIS POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL SPUR LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...INSTIGATING MASSIVE ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY ENSURE ANY
INSTABILITY IS QUICKLY UTILIZED IN THE PRODUCTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE HAVING A CHANCE TO BUILD TO HIGH LEVELS. THIS FACT SHOULD
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DOWN...BUT SOME
SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WITH A TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION (ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI). THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL ALSO BE MOST-FOCUSED
IN THESE LATTER AREAS AND DEFINITELY IN LOCATIONS PICKING UP SEVERAL
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT TOWARD THE IMPACTFUL SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM
WE HAVE STARTED HIGHLIGHTING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2013/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...A DRY-OUT IS EXPECTED
BY LATE TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST KEEPING A COOL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER
OUR AREA LENDING TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL REGIONS. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. /27/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       46  64  36  69 /  77  16   3   8
MERIDIAN      49  65  35  70 /  88  25   4   7
VICKSBURG     43  61  34  67 /  65  10   2   8
HATTIESBURG   53  68  42  70 /  81  31   5  13
NATCHEZ       45  61  38  67 /  66  15   2  12
GREENVILLE    38  54  34  63 /  21   8   1   3
GREENWOOD     40  60  33  67 /  48   9   2   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/19/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

LAZ024>026-MSZ043>066-072>074-231930-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
300 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVELS
OF WIND SHEAR ARE ANTICIPATED...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOW. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO NICKEL SIZED
HAIL...ALTHOUGH A FEW QUARTER SIZED HAIL STONES ARE POSSIBLE.
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS MONDAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RETURN. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP UP TO
DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025>042-231930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
300 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS MONDAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RETURN. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP UP TO
DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC

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MSZ052-222230-
LAUDERDALE MS-
347 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF MEEHAN AT 345 PM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THE STORM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CITY OF MERIDIAN.

IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN LAUDERDALE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3257 8839 3228 8843 3222 8890 3242 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 245DEG 54KT 3231 8882

7

MSZ052-222225-
LAUDERDALE MS-
354 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 40
TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER MERIDIAN AT 353 PM CST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LAUDERDALE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3252 8839 3245 8839 3239 8840 3225 8873
      3241 8883 3258 8848 3258 8839 3253 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 242DEG 53KT 3237 8868

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TORNADO          3 NNE FERRIDAY          31.68N 91.54W
02/21/2013  F1               CONCORDIA          LA   NWS STORM SURVEY

            NWS STORM SURVEY FOUND AN EF1 TORNADO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
            OF 90MPH...MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 75YDS AND PATH LENGTH OF 2.5
            MILES. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 65 WHERE A
            ROOF WAS TORN OFF A MOBILE HOME AND AN 18 WHEELER REAR
            TRAILER WAS TURNED OVER. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EAST AND
            CAUSED ROOF DAMAGE TO A BRICK HOUSE. THE TORNADO
            CONTINUED TO TRAXLER ROAD WHERE ROOF DAMAGE OCCURRED TO A
            HOME. A SHED WAS DESTROYED AND ANOTHER SHED WAS FLIPPED.
            A TRUCK AND TRAILER WAS PUSHED AROUND 15 FEET.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
435 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     HAIL             2 NW ROXIE              31.53N 91.09W
02/22/2013  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           MS   PUBLIC

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
506 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     TORNADO          4 NNE SOCIETY HILL      31.45N 89.86W
02/21/2013  F2               JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO STARTED ALONG SMITH LANE AND MOVED NE...THE
            TORNADO PEAKED AS IT MOVED ALONG GREEN CREEK RD AND
            CARSON-BUNKER HILL RD. TWO WELL BUILT FRAME HOMES WERE
            HEAVILY DAMAGED...POWER POLES SNAPPED AND A WELL BUILT
            FARM BUILDING WAS DESTROYED. SEVERAL OTHER HOMES AND
            BUILDINGS SUSTAINED MINOR OR MODERATE DAMAGE. THE TORNADO
            DISSIPATED BEFORE IT REACHED HWY 42 WEST OF BASSFIELD.
            MANY TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG THE PATH. PATH
            LENGHT WAS 6.3 MI...400 YDS WIDE.

1100 PM     TORNADO          5 SSW COLLINS           31.57N 89.59W
02/21/2013  F0               COVINGTON          MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THIS BRIEF TORNADO MOVED ALONG MCDONALD CHAPEL RD...A
            CHICKEN HOUSE HAD PART OF THE ROOF TORN OFF...A MOBILE
            HOME HAD SOME SKIRTING BLOWN OUT AND SEVERAL TREES WERE
            SNAPPED AS WELL. PATH LENGTH WAS 1 MI...75 YDS WIDE.

&&

CME