River Flood Warning 59, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
716 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...STRONG AND SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. MAIN RISK WILL BE FRONT DMG WINDS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THIS...A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-2 COUNTY CORRIDOR ALONG AND JUST N OF I-20.
ADJUSTED GRAPHICS TO INDICATE THE NEW RISK AREAS. THE WARM FRONT
LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE MAIN CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS RIDING ON THE PREV STORMS OUTFLOW. THE WARM FRONT IS
SITUATED ROUGHLY FROM VICKSBURG TO CRYSTAL SPRINGS TO HEIDELBURG.
THIS FITS WELL WITH THE CURRENT TOR WATCH.

OTHER MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDED REMOVING TSRA FROM
THE NW AND INCREASING POPS FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS. FURTHER UPDATES
WILL REFINE THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN AREA AND LOWERING OF POPS
WILL COINCIDE. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...COMBINATION OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS
THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE TIMING
THE CONVECTION AND THE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. THE
00Z TAF ISSUANCE WAS FOCUSED ON THE FIRST 6-10 HRS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY BEYOND 12-15 FRI. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       49  70  42  65 / 100  34  23   8
MERIDIAN      54  70  44  68 / 100  45  43  14
VICKSBURG     45  69  40  61 /  62  25  12   6
HATTIESBURG   60  70  51  71 / 100  58  55  20
NATCHEZ       48  69  43  63 /  63  39  21   8
GREENVILLE    40  57  36  55 /  49   9   9   5
GREENWOOD     42  63  36  60 /  61  13   9   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063-
222045-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE QUARTER SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY AND RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS. INTENSE WIND SHEAR AND DEVELOPING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MSZ044>046-050>052-056>058-064>066-072>074-222045-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE
QUARTER SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY AND RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS. INTENSE WIND SHEAR AND DEVELOPING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
PONDING WATER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS LOW ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS WHERE
DRAINAGE IS POOR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL
DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-222045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MERIDIAN                32.38N 88.71W
02/21/2013                   LAUDERDALE         MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLOODING IN THE BRIARWOOD SECTION OF MERIDIAN

&&

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1112 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     TORNADO          5 SSW CARSON            31.47N 89.82W
02/21/2013                   JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS TORNADO TOUCH DOWN NEAR THE
            GREENS CREEK COMMUNITY. PRELIMINARY REPORTS OF NUMEROUS
            TREES DOWN. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SUGGESTED TORNADO AS
            WELL.

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1118 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     TORNADO          5 SSW CARSON            31.47N 89.82W
02/21/2013                   JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UPDATE...TORNADO REPORTED NEAR GREENS CREEK COMMUNITY.
            PRELIMINARY REPORTS OF MOBILE HOME WITH HEAVY DAMAGE
            ALONG DAVIS LANE...TREE ACROSS HOUSE ON DYESS
            ROAD...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN NEAR GREENS CREEK ROAD. DUAL
            POLE RADAR DATA ALSO SUGGESTED TORNADO.

&&

GERARD

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