River Flood Warning 57, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
716 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...STRONG AND SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. MAIN RISK WILL BE FRONT DMG WINDS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THIS...A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-2 COUNTY CORRIDOR ALONG AND JUST N OF I-20.
ADJUSTED GRAPHICS TO INDICATE THE NEW RISK AREAS. THE WARM FRONT
LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE MAIN CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS RIDING ON THE PREV STORMS OUTFLOW. THE WARM FRONT IS
SITUATED ROUGHLY FROM VICKSBURG TO CRYSTAL SPRINGS TO HEIDELBURG.
THIS FITS WELL WITH THE CURRENT TOR WATCH.

OTHER MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDED REMOVING TSRA FROM
THE NW AND INCREASING POPS FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS. FURTHER UPDATES
WILL REFINE THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN AREA AND LOWERING OF POPS
WILL COINCIDE. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...COMBINATION OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS
THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE TIMING
THE CONVECTION AND THE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. THE
00Z TAF ISSUANCE WAS FOCUSED ON THE FIRST 6-10 HRS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY BEYOND 12-15 FRI. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       49  70  42  65 / 100  34  23   8
MERIDIAN      54  70  44  68 / 100  45  43  14
VICKSBURG     45  69  40  61 /  62  25  12   6
HATTIESBURG   60  70  51  71 / 100  58  55  20
NATCHEZ       48  69  43  63 /  63  39  21   8
GREENVILLE    40  57  36  55 /  49   9   9   5
GREENWOOD     42  63  36  60 /  61  13   9   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063-
222045-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE QUARTER SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY AND RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS. INTENSE WIND SHEAR AND DEVELOPING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MSZ044>046-050>052-056>058-064>066-072>074-222045-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE
QUARTER SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY AND RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS. INTENSE WIND SHEAR AND DEVELOPING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
PONDING WATER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS LOW ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS WHERE
DRAINAGE IS POOR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL
DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-222045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
843 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N CRYSTAL SPRINGS     32.02N 90.36W
02/21/2013                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON HWY 51

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
846 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     HAIL             5 NNE FLOWOOD           32.39N 90.07W
02/21/2013  E0.50 INCH       RANKIN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL OBSERVED ON THE SPILLWAY

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW CRANFIELD         31.50N 91.23W
02/21/2013                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TREES DOWN...ONE ON LIBERTY RD AND CRANFIELD RD.

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW ROXIE              31.53N 91.09W
02/21/2013                   FRANKLIN           MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PINE TREE SNAPPED ALONG HWY 84.

0510 PM     TORNADO          CLAYTON                 31.72N 91.54W
02/21/2013                   CONCORDIA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF A HOUSE ALONG HWY 65 NEAR CLAYTON.
            LIKELY TORNADO BASED OFF PHOTO.

0532 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW JACKSON            32.30N 90.23W
02/21/2013                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING AT METAIRIE ROAD AND DUANE
            STREET.

0535 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W FLOWOOD             32.31N 90.20W
02/21/2013                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING AT WEST MONUMENT STREET AND
            WEST CAPITOL STREET.

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PEARL                   32.27N 90.11W
02/21/2013                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF STREET FLOODING IN PEARL ON PEMBERTON DRIVE.
            ALSO SKYLINE DRIVE IS BEING CLOSED DUE TO STREET
            FLOODING. REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N CRYSTAL SPRINGS     32.02N 90.36W
02/21/2013                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON HWY 51

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FLORENCE                32.15N 90.13W
02/21/2013                   RANKIN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF FLOODING WITH CREEKS/DITCHES OVERFLOWING WITH
            LOTS OF STANDING WATER IN YARDS.

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FLORENCE                32.15N 90.13W
02/21/2013  E3.30 INCH       RANKIN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED AN ESTIMATED 3.30 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST 3 TO 4 HOURS.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
847 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CRYSTAL SPRINGS         31.99N 90.36W
02/21/2013  M2.60 INCH       COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0846 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NATCHEZ                 31.55N 91.39W
02/21/2013  M2.10 INCH       ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT EOC

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
908 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             FAYETTE                 31.71N 91.06W
02/21/2013  E0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
917 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW FOREST             32.33N 89.51W
02/21/2013                   SCOTT              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A COUPLE ROADS FLOODED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
            COUNTY.

&&

CME