Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
716 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...STRONG AND SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. MAIN RISK WILL BE FRONT DMG WINDS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THIS...A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-2 COUNTY CORRIDOR ALONG AND JUST N OF I-20.
ADJUSTED GRAPHICS TO INDICATE THE NEW RISK AREAS. THE WARM FRONT
LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE MAIN CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS RIDING ON THE PREV STORMS OUTFLOW. THE WARM FRONT IS
SITUATED ROUGHLY FROM VICKSBURG TO CRYSTAL SPRINGS TO HEIDELBURG.
THIS FITS WELL WITH THE CURRENT TOR WATCH.

OTHER MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDED REMOVING TSRA FROM
THE NW AND INCREASING POPS FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS. FURTHER UPDATES
WILL REFINE THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN AREA AND LOWERING OF POPS
WILL COINCIDE. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...COMBINATION OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS
THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE TIMING
THE CONVECTION AND THE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. THE
00Z TAF ISSUANCE WAS FOCUSED ON THE FIRST 6-10 HRS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY BEYOND 12-15 FRI. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       49  70  42  65 / 100  34  23   8
MERIDIAN      54  70  44  68 / 100  45  43  14
VICKSBURG     45  69  40  61 /  62  25  12   6
HATTIESBURG   60  70  51  71 / 100  58  55  20
NATCHEZ       48  69  43  63 /  63  39  21   8
GREENVILLE    40  57  36  55 /  49   9   9   5
GREENWOOD     42  63  36  60 /  61  13   9   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063-
222045-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE QUARTER SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY AND RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS. INTENSE WIND SHEAR AND DEVELOPING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MSZ044>046-050>052-056>058-064>066-072>074-222045-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE
QUARTER SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY AND RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS. INTENSE WIND SHEAR AND DEVELOPING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
PONDING WATER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS LOW ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS WHERE
DRAINAGE IS POOR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL
DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-222045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
235 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
607 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW JACKSON            32.30N 90.23W
02/21/2013                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING AT METAIRIE ROAD AND DUANE
            STREET.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
611 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W FLOWOOD             32.31N 90.20W
02/21/2013                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING AT WEST MONUMENT STREET AND
            WEST CAPITOL STREET.

&&

DCOX

MSZ044-045-050-051-056-057-220110-
SMITH MS-SCOTT MS-NEWTON MS-NESHOBA MS-LEAKE MS-JASPER MS-
625 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
625 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...CLUSTER OF POTENTIALLY GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST DOWN
THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 45 MPH WIND
GUSTS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF STEELE TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
BURNS AT 624 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN LEAKE...SOUTHERN
NESHOBA...NEWTON...EASTERN SCOTT AND NORTHERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3230 8898 3198 8965 3263 8942 3286 8892
      3250 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 240DEG 35KT 3259 8935 3212 8952

BYB

MSZ043-048-049-054-220125-
RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-HINDS MS-COPIAH MS-
644 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
644 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...MORE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH SOME GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL MOVING
TOWARD THE JACKSON METROPOLITAN AREA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 45 MPH WIND GUSTS
WAS LOCATED FROM POCAHONTAS TO DENTVILLE AT 644 PM CST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL COPIAH...EASTERN HINDS...SOUTHERN MADISON AND
RANKIN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3187 9069 3249 9038 3273 8973 3264 8973
      3260 8978 3242 8975 3216 8988 3205 9020
      3205 9023 3203 9025
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 247DEG 48KT 3246 9028 3200 9051

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
649 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW CRANFIELD         31.50N 91.23W
02/21/2013                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TREES DOWN...ONE ON LIBERTY RD AND CRANFIELD RD.

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW ROXIE              31.53N 91.09W
02/21/2013                   FRANKLIN           MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PINE TREE SNAPPED ALONG HWY 84.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAYTON                 31.72N 91.54W
02/21/2013                   CONCORDIA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF A HOUSE ALONG HWY 65 NEAR CLAYTON.

0532 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW JACKSON            32.30N 90.23W
02/21/2013                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING AT METAIRIE ROAD AND DUANE
            STREET.

0535 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W FLOWOOD             32.31N 90.20W
02/21/2013                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING AT WEST MONUMENT STREET AND
            WEST CAPITOL STREET.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
721 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TORNADO          CLAYTON                 31.72N 91.54W
02/21/2013                   CONCORDIA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF A HOUSE ALONG HWY 65 NEAR CLAYTON.
            LIKELY TORNADO BASED OFF PHOTO.

&&

CME