Flash Flood Warning 139, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
919 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

.UPDATE...A SEMI-ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING ALONG A SWATH FROM EUDORA ARKANSAS TOWARDS YAZOO CITY THIS
MORNING THAT HAS RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
WITH THIS COMPLEX HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES AND EVEN
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OBSERVED. THE HEAVY RAIN RISK RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20. THIS SWATH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS YAZOO COUNTY EASTWARD
INTO HOLMES/MADISON AND ATTALA AND FARTHER EASTWARD TO THE STATE
LINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR NE AREAS OF
MS. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN
ACCUMULATION SWATH OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE HIGH PRECIP RATES OCCUR WITHIN THE COMPLEX. HAVE INCREASED
RAINFALL TOTAL AMOUNTS IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND UPDATED THE
HWO/GRAPHICS ON THE MAIN HOMEPAGE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. IN
ADDITION...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH
AND EAST AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THIS COMPLEX IS BEING ADDED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE THAT OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT /PWATS ~2"/ AND MODEST S/WV TROUGH FORCING PIVOTING INTO
THE REGION. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...FORCING IS LESS AND THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL BE MORE BROKEN AND LESS ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...A
QUICK HEAVY DOWNPOUR RESULTING IN A QUICK 1-2 INCHES FROM THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION BY TONIGHT AND
EFFECTIVELY END ALL RAIN.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY. AN UPDATED AVIATION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY
BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN BAND MOVING ACROSS NORTH MS WITH CONTINUED PROGRESSION TO THE
EAST. BKN/SCT TSRA ARE ACROSS W/SW MS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS S MS
THROUGH THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HOURS. ALL SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AS THE SEMI-ORGANIZED COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL BY MID-AFTN BUT IFR CONDS LIKELY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX AND
THEN SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND. WINDS WILL BE TURBULENT INVOF STRONGER
STORMS. RAIN WILL END BY TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDS RETURN BEFORE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  68  86  64 /  90  27   7   8
MERIDIAN      84  69  86  62 /  91  51  12  10
VICKSBURG     86  61  86  60 /  95  15   8   7
HATTIESBURG   85  72  90  63 /  85  38   5   2
NATCHEZ       86  65  83  62 /  82  17   2   1
GREENVILLE    84  62  85  64 /  97  15   9   8
GREENWOOD     83  65  86  64 /  99  25   9   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
104 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

MSZ031-033-038-039-044>046-049>052-055>058-251815-
LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
104 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A STRONG LINE OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THIS LINE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. STRONGER PORTIONS
OF THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR. THIS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS
MOVE OVER THE SAME GROUND REPEATEDLY. RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG A NARROW
SWATH ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COULD REACH AS HIGH 2-4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOW SPOTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER ISSUES.

IN ADDITION... A FEW STRONG STORMS AND PERHAPS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN BE MOST CERTAINLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONG STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLOODING CONCERNS.

MSZ026>030-032-036-037-042-043-048-054-062>066-072>074-251815-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-CHOCTAW-HOLMES-ATTALA-
YAZOO-MADISON MS-HINDS-COPIAH-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
104 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHEAST MS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE DONE FOR THE DAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BUT SPOTTY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LASTING UP TO AN
HOUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING A QUICK ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
GROUND REPEATEDLY...THEN FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME MORE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...LOW SPOTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLOODING CONCERNS.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-047-053-059>061-251815-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-
CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
104 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N BRANDON             32.34N 90.02W
09/24/2013                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF FLOODING ON GRANTS FERRY ROAD BETWEEN HIGHWAY
            471 AND CASTLEWOODS AREA. AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF WATER WAS
            ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
115 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FLOWOOD                 32.32N 90.11W
09/24/2013                   RANKIN             MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORT OF FLOODING ON FOX HALL ROAD. ALSO WAS STANDING
            WATER AT REFUGE GOLF COURSE.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
126 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 N RALEIGH            32.18N 89.52W
09/24/2013                   SMITH              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ALONG HWY 35.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
128 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MORTON                  32.36N 89.66W
09/24/2013                   SCOTT              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF STREETS FLOODED IN MORTON. WATER BARELY
            ENTERED A FEW HOMES.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
131 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FOREST                  32.36N 89.47W
09/24/2013                   SCOTT              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING IN FOREST. SEVERAL OTHER ROADS
            WERE FLOODED IN THE COUNTY.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
152 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FLOWOOD                 32.32N 90.11W
09/24/2013                   RANKIN             MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTS OF FLOODING ON LUCKNEY ROAD IN FLOWOOD.

&&

DCOX