Flash Flood Warning 131, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

THE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS YESTERDAY HASN'T
MADE A WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LA UP ACROSS THE DELTA AND OVER TOWARD TUPELO.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH HEIGHT FALLS FROM
THE APPROACHING S/WV HAS INITIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LA/SOUTHEASTERN AR THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE DELTA AS WE HEAD FOR
DAYBREAK. THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH RESPECT TO
THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE S/WV SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND
INTERACTS WITH A PRETTY MOIST AIRMASS FOR LATE SEP (PW VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2 IN FOR MOST AREAS). A STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ENVELOPED
MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA IS GOING TO HINDER INSOLATION/
DESTABILIZATION THAT WAY TODAY (AT LEAST EARLY ON)...LEAVING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MLCAPE VALUES TO CLIMB ABOVE 1000 J/KG TO AREAS FURTHER
WEST. MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOW AT/BELOW
10K FT WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS PRETTY LIMITED...BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AND WILL KEEP THE RISKS WE'VE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS
UNCHANGED WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. WHILE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER 1 INCH...LOCALIZED
TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP THIS
HIGHLIGHTED AS WELL.

THE RAINS LOOK TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MS AS
THE S/WV LIFTS OUT AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS. THE DRIER AIR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NOSE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR WED.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE STRATUS DECK IS GOING TO MAKE THINGS TRICKY
ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY. WENT
AHEAD AND TRIMMED A BIT OFF THE GFS MOS FOR THESE AREAS...AND ALSO
TOOK A BIT OFF GLH GIVEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
/BK/

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION AS BOTH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FORECAST
AREA TO DRY OUT A BIT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION.

AFTER A FEW NIGHTS OF LOWERING GUIDANCE SUGGESTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE THIS WEEK...GUIDANCE HAS FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOOK MORE
RESPECTABLE THIS GO AROUND.  THEREFORE...I'LL STICK CLOSE WITH BOTH
GUIDANCE HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THEN HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION...LOW TO MID 80S.  LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
DAY...BUT AGAIN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOME UPPER 50S
WILL BE SEEN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SLIGHTLY COOLER
DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...A STRATUS DECK BRINGING IFR CIG TO AREAS ALONG/E OF I-55
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU 15-16Z BEFORE TRYING TO SCATTER.
FURTHER W...SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE DELTA...AND XPCT THIS ACTIVITY TO EXPAND
TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE ALL AREAS
SEE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES OF THE
REGION. SHRA/TSRA WL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO
THE EVENING...W/MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO AL
BY 06Z. GUSTY WINDS WL BE PSBL INVOF THE STORMY WEATHER LATER
THIS MORNING/THIS AFTN. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  86  64 /  87  27   7   8
MERIDIAN      84  69  86  62 /  85  51  12  10
VICKSBURG     86  61  86  60 /  77  15   8   7
HATTIESBURG   90  72  90  63 /  84  38   5   2
NATCHEZ       86  65  83  62 /  80  17   2   1
GREENVILLE    84  62  85  64 /  69  15   9   8
GREENWOOD     84  65  86  64 /  83  25   9   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BK/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
250900-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
358 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...AS WELL AS
FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD LEAD TO A FEW MINOR FLOODING ISSUES...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD OR
MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
802 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N GLEN ALLAN          33.03N 91.03W
09/24/2013                   WASHINGTON         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF FLOODING ON EASTSIDE LAKE WASHINGTON ROAD AND
            HIGHWAY 436 NEAR GLEN ALLAN.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROLLING FORK            32.91N 90.88W
09/24/2013                   SHARKEY            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF FLOODING ON CHINA STREET...NORTH 5TH STREET
            AND SIDNEY ALEXANDER STREET IN ROLLING FORK.

&&

DCOX

MSZ035-041-042-241405-
SHARKEY MS-HUMPHREYS MS-YAZOO MS-
840 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
840 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAIN WAS LOCATED FROM BELZONI TO ROLLING FORK AT 837 AM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF 2
TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR ARE OCCURRING. IF THESE RATES PERSIST...FLASHING
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN YAZOO...SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS AND SHARKEY
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3290 9077 3308 9072 3311 9045 3307 9042
      3305 9043 3305 9041 3283 9023 3273 9049
      3271 9079 3275 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 1337Z 280DEG 7KT 3318 9048 3280 9091

CME