Flash Flood Warning 134, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
919 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

.UPDATE...A SEMI-ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING ALONG A SWATH FROM EUDORA ARKANSAS TOWARDS YAZOO CITY THIS
MORNING THAT HAS RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
WITH THIS COMPLEX HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES AND EVEN
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OBSERVED. THE HEAVY RAIN RISK RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20. THIS SWATH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS YAZOO COUNTY EASTWARD
INTO HOLMES/MADISON AND ATTALA AND FARTHER EASTWARD TO THE STATE
LINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR NE AREAS OF
MS. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN
ACCUMULATION SWATH OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE HIGH PRECIP RATES OCCUR WITHIN THE COMPLEX. HAVE INCREASED
RAINFALL TOTAL AMOUNTS IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND UPDATED THE
HWO/GRAPHICS ON THE MAIN HOMEPAGE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. IN
ADDITION...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH
AND EAST AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THIS COMPLEX IS BEING ADDED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE THAT OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT /PWATS ~2"/ AND MODEST S/WV TROUGH FORCING PIVOTING INTO
THE REGION. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...FORCING IS LESS AND THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL BE MORE BROKEN AND LESS ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...A
QUICK HEAVY DOWNPOUR RESULTING IN A QUICK 1-2 INCHES FROM THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION BY TONIGHT AND
EFFECTIVELY END ALL RAIN.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY. AN UPDATED AVIATION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY
BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN BAND MOVING ACROSS NORTH MS WITH CONTINUED PROGRESSION TO THE
EAST. BKN/SCT TSRA ARE ACROSS W/SW MS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS S MS
THROUGH THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HOURS. ALL SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AS THE SEMI-ORGANIZED COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL BY MID-AFTN BUT IFR CONDS LIKELY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX AND
THEN SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND. WINDS WILL BE TURBULENT INVOF STRONGER
STORMS. RAIN WILL END BY TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDS RETURN BEFORE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  68  86  64 /  90  27   7   8
MERIDIAN      84  69  86  62 /  91  51  12  10
VICKSBURG     86  61  86  60 /  95  15   8   7
HATTIESBURG   85  72  90  63 /  85  38   5   2
NATCHEZ       86  65  83  62 /  82  17   2   1
GREENVILLE    84  62  85  64 /  97  15   9   8
GREENWOOD     83  65  86  64 /  99  25   9   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
946 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-251500-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-
946 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DEVELOPING LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND WEST MISSISSIPPI WILL BRING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO THE REGION
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER PORTIONS OF THIS LINE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR.
THIS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME GROUND REPEATEDLY. RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG A NARROW SWATH ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COULD REACH AS HIGH 5-7
INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE FRINGES OF THIS SWATH. LOW SPOTS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER
ISSUES.

IN ADDITION... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE MOST
CERTAINLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONG STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-047>066-072>074-251500-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
946 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH
EAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SPOTTY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LASTING UP TO AN HOUR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRINGING A QUICK ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME GROUND REPEATEDLY THEN FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME MORE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...LOW SPOTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

MSZ035-041-042-241405-
SHARKEY MS-HUMPHREYS MS-YAZOO MS-
840 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
840 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAIN WAS LOCATED FROM BELZONI TO ROLLING FORK AT 837 AM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF 2
TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR ARE OCCURRING. IF THESE RATES PERSIST...FLASHING
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN YAZOO...SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS AND SHARKEY
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3290 9077 3308 9072 3311 9045 3307 9042
      3305 9043 3305 9041 3283 9023 3273 9049
      3271 9079 3275 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 1337Z 280DEG 7KT 3318 9048 3280 9091

CME

MSZ027-028-241430-
MONTGOMERY MS-CARROLL MS-
902 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED OVER WINONA AT 901 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. IF THE HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS...FLASH FLOODING COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CARROLL AND CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3365 8954 3336 8953 3333 8997 3363 8997
TIME...MOT...LOC 1401Z 236DEG 10KT 3348 8970

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
957 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 AM     FLASH FLOOD      YAZOO CITY              32.86N 90.41W
09/24/2013                   YAZOO              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN. WATER IS COVERING SOME
            ROADS AND SOME ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING OR ARE CLOSED.
            A FEW ROADS THAT ARE FLOODED ARE JACKSON AVENUE...12TH
            STREET...BRIDGE STREET...GRAND AVENUE...13TH AND 14TH
            STREETS...MOUND STREET AND WASHINGTON STREET. WATER IS UP
            TO 4-5 INCHES DEEP IN SPOTS.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROLLING FORK            32.91N 90.88W
09/24/2013                   SHARKEY            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF HOUSES FLOODING IN ROLLING FORK.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     FLASH FLOOD      YAZOO CITY              32.86N 90.41W
09/24/2013                   YAZOO              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS THAT CALHOUN AVENUE IS IMPASSIBLE.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1009 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GRENADA                 33.78N 89.81W
09/24/2013                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A COUPLE STREETS IN THE CITY ARE FLOODED. A SINK HOLE HAS
            DEVELOPED ON ELM ST AS WELL.

&&

CME