Flash Flood Warning 136, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
919 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

.UPDATE...A SEMI-ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING ALONG A SWATH FROM EUDORA ARKANSAS TOWARDS YAZOO CITY THIS
MORNING THAT HAS RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
WITH THIS COMPLEX HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES AND EVEN
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OBSERVED. THE HEAVY RAIN RISK RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20. THIS SWATH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS YAZOO COUNTY EASTWARD
INTO HOLMES/MADISON AND ATTALA AND FARTHER EASTWARD TO THE STATE
LINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR NE AREAS OF
MS. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN
ACCUMULATION SWATH OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE HIGH PRECIP RATES OCCUR WITHIN THE COMPLEX. HAVE INCREASED
RAINFALL TOTAL AMOUNTS IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND UPDATED THE
HWO/GRAPHICS ON THE MAIN HOMEPAGE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. IN
ADDITION...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH
AND EAST AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THIS COMPLEX IS BEING ADDED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE THAT OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT /PWATS ~2"/ AND MODEST S/WV TROUGH FORCING PIVOTING INTO
THE REGION. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...FORCING IS LESS AND THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL BE MORE BROKEN AND LESS ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...A
QUICK HEAVY DOWNPOUR RESULTING IN A QUICK 1-2 INCHES FROM THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION BY TONIGHT AND
EFFECTIVELY END ALL RAIN.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY. AN UPDATED AVIATION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY
BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN BAND MOVING ACROSS NORTH MS WITH CONTINUED PROGRESSION TO THE
EAST. BKN/SCT TSRA ARE ACROSS W/SW MS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS S MS
THROUGH THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HOURS. ALL SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AS THE SEMI-ORGANIZED COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL BY MID-AFTN BUT IFR CONDS LIKELY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX AND
THEN SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND. WINDS WILL BE TURBULENT INVOF STRONGER
STORMS. RAIN WILL END BY TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDS RETURN BEFORE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  68  86  64 /  90  27   7   8
MERIDIAN      84  69  86  62 /  91  51  12  10
VICKSBURG     86  61  86  60 /  95  15   8   7
HATTIESBURG   85  72  90  63 /  85  38   5   2
NATCHEZ       86  65  83  62 /  82  17   2   1
GREENVILLE    84  62  85  64 /  97  15   9   8
GREENWOOD     83  65  86  64 /  99  25   9   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
946 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-251500-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-
946 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DEVELOPING LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND WEST MISSISSIPPI WILL BRING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO THE REGION
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER PORTIONS OF THIS LINE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR.
THIS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME GROUND REPEATEDLY. RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG A NARROW SWATH ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COULD REACH AS HIGH 5-7
INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE FRINGES OF THIS SWATH. LOW SPOTS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER
ISSUES.

IN ADDITION... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE MOST
CERTAINLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONG STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-047>066-072>074-251500-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
946 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH
EAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SPOTTY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LASTING UP TO AN HOUR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRINGING A QUICK ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME GROUND REPEATEDLY THEN FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME MORE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...LOW SPOTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

MSZ042-043-241555-
MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
1024 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1024 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES EAST OF MYRLEVILLE TO 5 MILES WEST OF
FLORA AT 1024 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN YAZOO AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3268 8991 3243 9023 3243 9024 3249 9025
      3248 9041 3250 9045 3256 9045 3256 9046
      3281 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 1524Z 301DEG 21KT 3270 9015 3251 9037

CME

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1102 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW VICKSBURG         32.33N 90.88W
09/24/2013                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF FLOODING AT MARCUS BOTTOM SUBDIVISION IN
            VICKSBURG NEAR HALLS FERRY ROAD.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1104 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE VICKSBURG          32.38N 90.80W
09/24/2013                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF FLOODING AROUND THE 500 BLOCK OF FREETOWN
            ROAD.

&&

DCOX