Tornado Warning 8, NWS Fort Worth, TX

980 
WWUS54 KFWD 160042 RRA
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
742 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXC337-497-160115-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-130516T0115Z/
MONTAGUE TX-WISE TX-
742 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN WISE AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTIES...

AT 736 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ALVORD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  DECATUR AND FORESTBURG AROUND 800 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3344 9749 3343 9738 3313 9740 3335 9782
      3354 9771 3356 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 275DEG 12KT 3338 9767

$$


82/JLD

405 
WWUS54 KFWD 160059
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
759 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXC337-160109-
/O.CAN.KFWD.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-130516T0115Z/
MONTAGUE TX-
759 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3343 9738 3320 9739 3330 9768 3344 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 293DEG 14KT 3333 9752

$$

TXC497-160115-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-130516T0115Z/
WISE TX-
759 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY...

AT 759 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL EASTERN WISE COUNTY AT 810 PM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 9738 3320 9739 3330 9768 3344 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 293DEG 14KT 3333 9752

$$


82/JLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
THE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 161 FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. AT 630 PM...SEVERAL SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED NORTH TO SOUTH FROM BOWIE TO NORTH OF
GOLDTHWAITE. THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF BASEBALL OR
GREATER SIZED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX FROM THE
WEST. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WATCH
AND WARNING INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES IN YOUR AREA.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA IS DRIVING
STORM MOTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY. ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM TAF SITES. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WHERE GOOD INSTABILITY RESIDES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WEST OF I-35 AS A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER LOW...AND THIS ACTIVITY WOULD PROPAGATE EAST TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX.

DEVELOPMENT REMAINED ISOLATED MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
LATEST TRENDS AND BLEND OF HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
THE METRO AREA TERMINALS 01-02Z. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE VCTS
BEGINNING IN THAT TIME FRAME. MAY NEED TO STICK WITH A TEMPO GROUP
02-05Z...THOUGH LATE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE MADE DEPENDING ON RADAR
TRENDS. FOR WACO...TIMING WILL BE SIMILAR DUE TO EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE WACO
AREA...WHICH ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A VCTS DURING THE 02-05Z TIME
FRAME. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AROUND
06Z. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW.
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ON OUR SIDE OF THE RED RIVER MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

IN SUNNY AREAS FROM SAN ANGELO TO ABILENE TO WICHITA FALLS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 80S. A DRYLINE IS WELL
WEST...MAINTAINING 60+ DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS AREA. WHATEVER
MINIMAL CAP REMAINS THERE WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WELL AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WITH CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY...CYCLONIC SHEAR...AND STRONG LAPSE RATES ALOFT...
THE STORM MODE WILL FAVOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS BEING INDUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.
AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN BACKING IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND ANY
RESULTING DRYLINE BULGE. THE INCREASING EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE CYCLONIC SHEAR...PARTICULARLY IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT WESTERN ZONES BEFORE SUNSET.

THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS RACING TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA...THE FLOW
ALOFT ABOVE WESTERN ZONES WILL VEER MARKEDLY. THIS WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE...
AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FLOW MIGHT SUGGEST THE STORMS
WOULD THEN SWING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. BUT
IF THE CONVECTION CAN CONGEAL INTO AN MCS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND GENERATE A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL...IT WOULD LIKELY
CONTINUE SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD DEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...FED BY
A SOUTHERLY LLJ OF 30-40KTS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SUCH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WOULD LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL COVER BOTH THE HAIL THREAT EARLY AND
THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN TIME FRAME
FOR IMPACTS IN THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX WILL BE 9 PM TO
2 AM CDT.

THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW EXITS
THE REGION. MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY...
PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY. A DRYLINE MAY DEVELOP IN WEST TEXAS...ANY CONVECTION
ALONG WHICH MAY REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
DIVERGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FROM ENTERING THE
CWA...BUT MAINTAIN SOME LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  83  70  89  71 /  60  20  10   5  10
WACO, TX              68  85  71  90  72 /  40  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             63  76  66  82  68 /  70  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            66  83  69  89  70 /  70  20  10   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  80  68  86  69 /  70  30  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            67  83  70  89  72 /  60  20  10   5  10
TERRELL, TX           65  80  68  86  70 /  60  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         65  82  69  87  70 /  40  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            67  86  70  89  71 /  30  10  10  10   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  86  67  94  69 /  60  20  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
357 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161115-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
357 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WEST OF A LAMPASAS
TO BOWIE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...
FORT WORTH...SHERMAN LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             PRIDDY                  31.67N  98.52W
05/15/2013  E1.75 INCH       MILLS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILLSAP                 32.75N  98.02W
05/15/2013                   PARKER             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            DAMAGE TO A ROOF AND A TELEPHONE POLE DOWN IN MILLSAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             MILLSAP                 32.75N  98.02W
05/15/2013  E1.75 INCH       PARKER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGER THAN GOLFBALL HAIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     MILLSAP                 32.75N  98.02W
05/15/2013  M65 MPH          PARKER             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TORNADO          SUNSET                  33.45N  97.77W
05/15/2013                   MONTAGUE           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR 287 IN SUNSET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             4 W WEATHERFORD         32.77N  97.87W
05/15/2013  E1.75 INCH       PARKER             TX   AMATEUR RADIO