Tornado Warning 16, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
THE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 161 FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. AT 630 PM...SEVERAL SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED NORTH TO SOUTH FROM BOWIE TO NORTH OF
GOLDTHWAITE. THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF BASEBALL OR
GREATER SIZED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX FROM THE
WEST. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WATCH
AND WARNING INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES IN YOUR AREA.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA IS DRIVING
STORM MOTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY. ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM TAF SITES. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WHERE GOOD INSTABILITY RESIDES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WEST OF I-35 AS A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER LOW...AND THIS ACTIVITY WOULD PROPAGATE EAST TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX.

DEVELOPMENT REMAINED ISOLATED MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
LATEST TRENDS AND BLEND OF HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
THE METRO AREA TERMINALS 01-02Z. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE VCTS
BEGINNING IN THAT TIME FRAME. MAY NEED TO STICK WITH A TEMPO GROUP
02-05Z...THOUGH LATE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE MADE DEPENDING ON RADAR
TRENDS. FOR WACO...TIMING WILL BE SIMILAR DUE TO EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE WACO
AREA...WHICH ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A VCTS DURING THE 02-05Z TIME
FRAME. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AROUND
06Z. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW.
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ON OUR SIDE OF THE RED RIVER MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

IN SUNNY AREAS FROM SAN ANGELO TO ABILENE TO WICHITA FALLS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 80S. A DRYLINE IS WELL
WEST...MAINTAINING 60+ DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS AREA. WHATEVER
MINIMAL CAP REMAINS THERE WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WELL AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WITH CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY...CYCLONIC SHEAR...AND STRONG LAPSE RATES ALOFT...
THE STORM MODE WILL FAVOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS BEING INDUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.
AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN BACKING IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND ANY
RESULTING DRYLINE BULGE. THE INCREASING EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE CYCLONIC SHEAR...PARTICULARLY IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT WESTERN ZONES BEFORE SUNSET.

THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS RACING TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA...THE FLOW
ALOFT ABOVE WESTERN ZONES WILL VEER MARKEDLY. THIS WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE...
AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FLOW MIGHT SUGGEST THE STORMS
WOULD THEN SWING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. BUT
IF THE CONVECTION CAN CONGEAL INTO AN MCS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND GENERATE A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL...IT WOULD LIKELY
CONTINUE SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD DEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...FED BY
A SOUTHERLY LLJ OF 30-40KTS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SUCH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WOULD LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL COVER BOTH THE HAIL THREAT EARLY AND
THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN TIME FRAME
FOR IMPACTS IN THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX WILL BE 9 PM TO
2 AM CDT.

THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW EXITS
THE REGION. MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY...
PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY. A DRYLINE MAY DEVELOP IN WEST TEXAS...ANY CONVECTION
ALONG WHICH MAY REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
DIVERGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FROM ENTERING THE
CWA...BUT MAINTAIN SOME LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  83  70  89  71 /  60  20  10   5  10
WACO, TX              68  85  71  90  72 /  40  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             63  76  66  82  68 /  70  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            66  83  69  89  70 /  70  20  10   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  80  68  86  69 /  70  30  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            67  83  70  89  72 /  60  20  10   5  10
TERRELL, TX           65  80  68  86  70 /  60  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         65  82  69  87  70 /  40  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            67  86  70  89  71 /  30  10  10  10   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  86  67  94  69 /  60  20  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
357 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161115-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
357 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WEST OF A LAMPASAS
TO BOWIE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...
FORT WORTH...SHERMAN LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
816 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             9 S HAMILTON            31.57N  98.12W
05/15/2013  E1.75 INCH       HAMILTON           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
824 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     HAIL             1 SSE SHIVE             31.61N  98.22W
05/15/2013  E2.75 INCH       HAMILTON           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
850 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE GRAPEVINE         32.90N  97.07W
05/15/2013  M59 MPH          TARRANT            TX   ASOS

            DFW ASOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
857 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     HAIL             CLEBURNE                32.35N  97.40W
05/15/2013  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2100 BLOCK OF PEBBLECREEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
905 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXZ141-160230-
COMANCHE TX-
905 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN COMANCHE COUNTY

AT 905 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF COMANCHE...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

DE LEON IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3226 9855 3195 9833 3194 9833 3185 9843
      3186 9877 3208 9892
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 278DEG 24KT 3206 9870

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
921 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLEBURNE                32.35N  97.40W
05/15/2013  E80 MPH          JOHNSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT THE CLEBURNE HOSPITAL