River Flood Warning 7, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
THE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 161 FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. AT 630 PM...SEVERAL SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED NORTH TO SOUTH FROM BOWIE TO NORTH OF
GOLDTHWAITE. THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF BASEBALL OR
GREATER SIZED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX FROM THE
WEST. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WATCH
AND WARNING INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES IN YOUR AREA.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA IS DRIVING
STORM MOTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY. ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM TAF SITES. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WHERE GOOD INSTABILITY RESIDES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WEST OF I-35 AS A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER LOW...AND THIS ACTIVITY WOULD PROPAGATE EAST TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX.

DEVELOPMENT REMAINED ISOLATED MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
LATEST TRENDS AND BLEND OF HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
THE METRO AREA TERMINALS 01-02Z. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE VCTS
BEGINNING IN THAT TIME FRAME. MAY NEED TO STICK WITH A TEMPO GROUP
02-05Z...THOUGH LATE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE MADE DEPENDING ON RADAR
TRENDS. FOR WACO...TIMING WILL BE SIMILAR DUE TO EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE WACO
AREA...WHICH ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A VCTS DURING THE 02-05Z TIME
FRAME. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AROUND
06Z. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW.
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ON OUR SIDE OF THE RED RIVER MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

IN SUNNY AREAS FROM SAN ANGELO TO ABILENE TO WICHITA FALLS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 80S. A DRYLINE IS WELL
WEST...MAINTAINING 60+ DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS AREA. WHATEVER
MINIMAL CAP REMAINS THERE WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WELL AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WITH CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY...CYCLONIC SHEAR...AND STRONG LAPSE RATES ALOFT...
THE STORM MODE WILL FAVOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS BEING INDUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.
AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN BACKING IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND ANY
RESULTING DRYLINE BULGE. THE INCREASING EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE CYCLONIC SHEAR...PARTICULARLY IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT WESTERN ZONES BEFORE SUNSET.

THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS RACING TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA...THE FLOW
ALOFT ABOVE WESTERN ZONES WILL VEER MARKEDLY. THIS WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE...
AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FLOW MIGHT SUGGEST THE STORMS
WOULD THEN SWING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. BUT
IF THE CONVECTION CAN CONGEAL INTO AN MCS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND GENERATE A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL...IT WOULD LIKELY
CONTINUE SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD DEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...FED BY
A SOUTHERLY LLJ OF 30-40KTS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SUCH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WOULD LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL COVER BOTH THE HAIL THREAT EARLY AND
THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN TIME FRAME
FOR IMPACTS IN THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX WILL BE 9 PM TO
2 AM CDT.

THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW EXITS
THE REGION. MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY...
PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY. A DRYLINE MAY DEVELOP IN WEST TEXAS...ANY CONVECTION
ALONG WHICH MAY REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
DIVERGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FROM ENTERING THE
CWA...BUT MAINTAIN SOME LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  83  70  89  71 /  60  20  10   5  10
WACO, TX              68  85  71  90  72 /  40  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             63  76  66  82  68 /  70  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            66  83  69  89  70 /  70  20  10   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  80  68  86  69 /  70  30  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            67  83  70  89  72 /  60  20  10   5  10
TERRELL, TX           65  80  68  86  70 /  60  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         65  82  69  87  70 /  40  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            67  86  70  89  71 /  30  10  10  10   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  86  67  94  69 /  60  20  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
357 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161115-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
357 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WEST OF A LAMPASAS
TO BOWIE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...
FORT WORTH...SHERMAN LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXZ131-160330-
HOOD TX-
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HOOD COUNTY

AT 1007 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRANBURY...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRANBURY...LIPAN AND OAK
TRAIL SHORES.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3256 9806 3255 9762 3232 9761 3231 9779
      3224 9794 3243 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 280DEG 21KT 3235 9794

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1009 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXZ102-117-118-160345-
TARRANT TX-WISE TX-PARKER TX-
1009 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PARKER COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY
  SOUTHERN WISE COUNTY

AT 1009 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE AURORA...AZLE...BOYD...
BRIAR...EAGLE MOUNTAIN...PECAN ACRES...PELICAN BAY...RENO...
SPRINGTOWN...COTTONDALE AND POOLVILLE.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3307 9739 3300 9739 3299 9740 3299 9734
      3298 9734 3284 9739 3296 9792 3315 9782
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 286DEG 28KT 3304 9774

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1038 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXZ130-132-143-144-160415-
ERATH TX-HAMILTON TX-SOMERVELL TX-BOSQUE TX-
1038 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN BOSQUE COUNTY
  SOUTHERN ERATH COUNTY
  NORTH CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY
  SOMERVELL COUNTY

AT 1039 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GLEN ROSE...HICO...
IREDELL...MERIDIAN AND DINOSAUR VALLEY STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3224 9795 3223 9794 3232 9778 3232 9762
      3220 9761 3218 9760 3217 9757 3215 9756
      3213 9750 3210 9748 3194 9751 3186 9816
      3207 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 275DEG 28KT 3207 9789

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1043 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXZ118-160415-
TARRANT TX-
1043 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 1043 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RIVER OAKS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ARLINGTON...BENBROOK...
DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS...EDGECLIFF...EVERMAN...FOREST HILL...FORT
WORTH...HALTOM CITY...KENNEDALE...LAKE WORTH...PANTEGO...RICHLAND
HILLS...RIVER OAKS...SANSOM PARK...WESTWORTH AND WHITE SETTLEMENT.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3279 9704 3255 9704 3269 9751 3286 9744
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 287DEG 25KT 3275 9737

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1046 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     HAIL             5 N AZLE                32.97N  97.53W
05/15/2013  E1.75 INCH       TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1058 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW HAMILTON           31.68N  98.14W
05/15/2013  M59 MPH          HAMILTON           TX   AWOS