Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. SHOWERS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO PUSH INTO THE ATL
AREA BY MID MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. HI RES
MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THIS INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH BUT THEN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
BEHIND IT AROUND THE ATL METRO AREA AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA. GIVEN THIS...HAVE NOT BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR OUT
THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS
LIMITED TO CENTRAL GEORGIA...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH.

INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED THIS MORNING AND THUS LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN MINIMAL IN THE LINE. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...MAIN THREAT
WITH THE LINE THIS MORNING IS DAMAGING WIND. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW
40KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME KINKS IN REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE LINE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CAREFULLY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AS THE TORNADO THREAT
IS NON-ZERO THIS MORNING. AS THE LINES PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY...INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DECREASES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE EXPECTED
AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THINK
THIS MAY BE OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. SPC HAS KEPT US OUT OF THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR TODAY...BUT WE ARE IN GENERAL THUNDER.

TEMPS ARE NEAR A BLEND BUT DO NOT FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND FOR TODAY.
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN AND COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTH AND
PARTS OF WEST GEORGIA. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THIS...BUT GIVEN BORDERLINE VALUES WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
RE-EVALUATE.

11

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET LONG TERM STILL ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE CWFA.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM
BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. THE POPS PRODUCED BY THE NAM ARE VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING WESTERN
GA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AN POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGHEST POPS SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FROPA. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LINE OF TSRA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH LINE OF
TSRA TO BEGIN WITH AND THEN A TRANSITION TO JUST RA EVENTUALLY.
WILL REACH THE ATL AREA AS EARLY AS 11Z BUT BEST CHANCES OF TS AT
ATL APPEAR TO BE BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z. WINDS ARE ALREADY SOUTHERLY
AND APPEAR THEY WILL BECOME JUST WEST OF SOUTH IN THE 10-12Z TIME
FRAME SO THE TAF IS ON THE LATER SIDE OF THAT. WITH LINE OF
TSRA...VSBYS COULD BECOME LOWER THAN ADVERTISED WITH 1-2SM
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WILL BE FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD SO TAF MENTIONS
MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...OTHERWISE MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP...CIGS
AND VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER OCCURRING AT THE AIRPORT.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  41  67  43 / 100  40   0   0
ATLANTA         65  40  65  45 / 100  20   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     63  37  62  39 / 100  10   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    63  37  65  41 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        68  42  70  45 / 100  50   0   0
GAINESVILLE     65  41  66  44 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           71  41  69  45 / 100  80   5   0
ROME            62  36  66  40 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  65  37  66  41 / 100  30   0   0
VIDALIA         83  53  69  50 /  90 100  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
618 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
618 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH THE MOSTLY LIKELY HAZARDS BEING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. IF GREATER
SURFACE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING IF WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTERS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT IN CASE CONDITIONS CHANGE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
543 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

GAZ002-003-011-191015-
543 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN WALKER...CATOOSA
AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM EDT...

AT 539 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4 MILES WEST OF CENTER POST TO 5 MILES
WEST OF BERRYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS WALKER...
CATOOSA AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE JAMES H. FLOYD STATE PARK...
BERRYTON...SUMMERVILLE...CENTER POST...TRION...LAFAYETTE...LINWOOD...
WOOD STATION AND NAOMI.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 8541 3483 8513 3448 8523 3438 8548
      3439 8549 3442 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 0943Z 233DEG 44KT 3466 8538 3450 8542

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
622 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW SUMMERVILLE       34.48N 85.36W
04/19/2013                   CHATTOOGA          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE DOWN ACROSS HWY 48 NEAR BACK BERRYTON RD

&&

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

GAZ004-011-012-019-191100-
627 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN WHITFIELD...
CHATTOOGA...FLOYD AND GORDON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM EDT...

AT 626 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR SUBLIGNA TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
COOSA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
WHITFIELD...CHATTOOGA...FLOYD AND GORDON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 AM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TIDINGS...
SUBLIGNA...COOSA...ROME...LAKE MARVIN...ARMUCHEE...EVERETT SPRINGS...
SUGAR VALLEY...TILTON...OOSTANAULA AND RESACA.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 8519 3459 8506 3465 8505 3471 8494
      3470 8491 3472 8492 3475 8486 3471 8486
      3469 8491 3467 8489 3468 8494 3461 8490
      3416 8521 3410 8543 3421 8545
TIME...MOT...LOC 1027Z 228DEG 42KT 3464 8512 3440 8527
          3422 8540

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
647 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

GAZ004-005-012-019-191115-
647 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN WHITFIELD...
MURRAY...FLOYD AND GORDON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EDT...

AT 640 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH OF BEAVERDALE TO NEAR DALTON TO 4
MILES WEST OF CALHOUN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
WHITFIELD...MURRAY...FLOYD AND GORDON COUNTIES THROUGH 715 AM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE EVERETT SPRINGS...
LAKE MARVIN...DALTON...BEAVERDALE...SUGAR VALLEY...DAWNVILLE...
RESACA...SUMAC...GREGORY...TENNGA...TILTON...CISCO...AUDUBON...
NICKELSVILLE AND THE NORTH GEORGIA SPEEDWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 8462 3454 8480 3449 8515 3459 8509
      3459 8506 3465 8505 3499 8486 3499 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1046Z 235DEG 31KT 3499 8479 3476 8493
          3455 8506

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
722 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

GAZ005-006-191145-
722 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN MURRAY AND
WESTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM EDT...

AT 718 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR CISCO TO THE NORTH GEORGIA SPEEDWAY
SOUTHEAST OF DALTON ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

ISOLATED AREAS OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS
MOVE ACROSS MURRAY AND FANNIN COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE NORTH GEORGIA
SPEEDWAY...CHATSWORTH...ETON...CRANDALL...CISCO...FORT MOUNTAIN
STATE PARK...CONASAUGA LAKE...COHUTTA WILDERNESS AND JONES MILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 8450 3485 8453 3485 8461 3483 8459
      3481 8459 3461 8486 3499 8473 3499 8472
      3500 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1121Z 224DEG 44KT 3494 8471 3468 8480