Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. SHOWERS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO PUSH INTO THE ATL
AREA BY MID MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. HI RES
MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THIS INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH BUT THEN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
BEHIND IT AROUND THE ATL METRO AREA AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA. GIVEN THIS...HAVE NOT BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR OUT
THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS
LIMITED TO CENTRAL GEORGIA...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH.

INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED THIS MORNING AND THUS LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN MINIMAL IN THE LINE. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...MAIN THREAT
WITH THE LINE THIS MORNING IS DAMAGING WIND. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW
40KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME KINKS IN REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE LINE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CAREFULLY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AS THE TORNADO THREAT
IS NON-ZERO THIS MORNING. AS THE LINES PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY...INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DECREASES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE EXPECTED
AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THINK
THIS MAY BE OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. SPC HAS KEPT US OUT OF THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR TODAY...BUT WE ARE IN GENERAL THUNDER.

TEMPS ARE NEAR A BLEND BUT DO NOT FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND FOR TODAY.
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN AND COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTH AND
PARTS OF WEST GEORGIA. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THIS...BUT GIVEN BORDERLINE VALUES WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
RE-EVALUATE.

11

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET LONG TERM STILL ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE CWFA.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM
BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. THE POPS PRODUCED BY THE NAM ARE VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING WESTERN
GA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AN POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGHEST POPS SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FROPA. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LINE OF TSRA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH LINE OF
TSRA TO BEGIN WITH AND THEN A TRANSITION TO JUST RA EVENTUALLY.
WILL REACH THE ATL AREA AS EARLY AS 11Z BUT BEST CHANCES OF TS AT
ATL APPEAR TO BE BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z. WINDS ARE ALREADY SOUTHERLY
AND APPEAR THEY WILL BECOME JUST WEST OF SOUTH IN THE 10-12Z TIME
FRAME SO THE TAF IS ON THE LATER SIDE OF THAT. WITH LINE OF
TSRA...VSBYS COULD BECOME LOWER THAN ADVERTISED WITH 1-2SM
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WILL BE FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD SO TAF MENTIONS
MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...OTHERWISE MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP...CIGS
AND VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER OCCURRING AT THE AIRPORT.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  41  67  43 / 100  40   0   0
ATLANTA         65  40  65  45 / 100  20   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     63  37  62  39 / 100  10   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    63  37  65  41 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        68  42  70  45 / 100  50   0   0
GAINESVILLE     65  41  66  44 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           71  41  69  45 / 100  80   5   0
ROME            62  36  66  40 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  65  37  66  41 / 100  30   0   0
VIDALIA         83  53  69  50 /  90 100  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
519 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

GAZ001>003-011-190945-
519 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN WALKER...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA AND DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM EDT...

AT 515 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES WEST OF CHATTANOOGA TO 7 MILES
WEST OF CLOUDLAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

ISOLATED AREAS OF WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS
MOVE ACROSS WALKER...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA AND DADE COUNTIES THROUGH
545 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN...WILDWOOD...RISING FAWN...CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE
PARK...CHATTANOOGA VALLEY...CEDAR GROVE...CLOUDLAND...LAKEVIEW...
FAIRVIEW...MENLO...FORT OGLETHORPE...CHICKAMAUGA...CHATTOOGAVILLE
AND BOYNTON.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8546 3433 8548 3472 8557 3499 8541
      3499 8513
TIME...MOT...LOC 0918Z 271DEG 19KT 3504 8532 3450 8559

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
543 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

GAZ002-003-011-191015-
543 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN WALKER...CATOOSA
AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM EDT...

AT 539 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4 MILES WEST OF CENTER POST TO 5 MILES
WEST OF BERRYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS WALKER...
CATOOSA AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE JAMES H. FLOYD STATE PARK...
BERRYTON...SUMMERVILLE...CENTER POST...TRION...LAFAYETTE...LINWOOD...
WOOD STATION AND NAOMI.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 8541 3483 8513 3448 8523 3438 8548
      3439 8549 3442 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 0943Z 233DEG 44KT 3466 8538 3450 8542