Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough.  MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail.  This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.

Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.

Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM  CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A rather messy afternoon forecast continues for convective chances
near the major terminals. Several outflow boundaries linger over the
CWA, with the one with the highest potential developing convection
stretching from Fort Scott eastward to Columbia. Further north, a
secondary elevated boundary continues to lift through northern
Missouri and Kansas, and as we continually destabilize this
afternoon, it too may become a focus for scattered convection.

Will also need to watch the true cold front entering NW Missouri
later today. For now, unable to pinpoint an exact time or location
for convective development in relationship to the terminals, and will
continue to advertise VCTS through the evening.

Quiet conditions do return after midnight, with VFR prevailing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Dux

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
106 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
106 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO MID-MISSOURI. THESE
EVENTUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVEL EAST NORTHEAST WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. AT
THIS TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             HARRISONVILLE           38.66N 94.35W
05/20/2013  E1.00 INCH       CASS               MO   PUBLIC

&&

ABAILEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOZ038-043>045-054-202145-
CASS MO-HENRY MO-JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-PETTIS MO-
400 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE...JOHNSON...NORTHWESTERN HENRY
AND EASTERN CASS COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINGSVILLE...OR NEAR HOLDEN...MOVING EAST AT
60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WARRENSBURG...WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE...KNOB NOSTER...CONCORDIA...
  CHILHOWEE...LEETON...GREEN RIDGE...LA MONTE...PITTSVILLE...
  CENTERVIEW...POST OAK...FAYETTEVILLE AND EMMA.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 55 AND 62.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3878 9429 3903 9350 3894 9350 3894 9345
      3859 9328 3847 9416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 250DEG 54KT 3874 9397

MELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
421 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             HOLDEN                  38.71N 93.99W
05/20/2013  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
426 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             SEDALIA                 38.70N 93.23W
05/20/2013  E0.75 INCH       PETTIS             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ABAILEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
432 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOZ045-046-202200-
COOPER MO-PETTIS MO-
432 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PETTIS AND SOUTHWESTERN COOPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEDALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREEN RIDGE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SEDALIA...OTTERVILLE...PILOT GROVE...BUNCETON AND CLIFTON CITY.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 87 AND 91.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3868 9295 3869 9305 3864 9306 3850 9338
      3851 9347 3874 9349 3893 9314 3893 9305
      3898 9304 3879 9270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 228DEG 30KT 3873 9313

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
507 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             1 S WARRENSBURG         38.75N 93.74W
05/20/2013  M1.25 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PMURRAY