River Flood Warning 62, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough.  MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail.  This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.

Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.

Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM  CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Broken line of cumulus north of St. Joseph slowly becoming agitated
early this evening. General trends support the potential for minor
development north of St. Joseph, however feel that the KC terminals
will remain clear of additional convection.

Surface front remains just west of the state line at 6pm, and should
push eastward by 03Z. Into daybreak, expecting VFR conditions and a
west wind.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Dux

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
106 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
106 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO MID-MISSOURI. THESE
EVENTUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVEL EAST NORTHEAST WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. AT
THIS TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
432 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOZ045-046-202200-
COOPER MO-PETTIS MO-
432 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PETTIS AND SOUTHWESTERN COOPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEDALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREEN RIDGE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SEDALIA...OTTERVILLE...PILOT GROVE...BUNCETON AND CLIFTON CITY.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 87 AND 91.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3868 9295 3869 9305 3864 9306 3850 9338
      3851 9347 3874 9349 3893 9314 3893 9305
      3898 9304 3879 9270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 228DEG 30KT 3873 9313

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
507 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             1 S WARRENSBURG         38.75N 93.74W
05/20/2013  M1.25 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
526 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 ENE HUGHESVILLE       38.87N 93.22W
05/20/2013                   PETTIS             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAFFIC STOPPED ALONG 65 HWY.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
533 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             5 S MARSHALL            39.04N 93.20W
05/20/2013  E0.88 INCH       SALINE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MDUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             5 E MOBERLY             39.42N 92.34W
05/20/2013  E1.00 INCH       RANDOLPH           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ADOLPHSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOZ007-008-017-210030-
ADAIR MO-PUTNAM MO-SCHUYLER MO-
643 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ADAIR...SCHUYLER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NOVINGER...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KIRKSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LANCASTER...GREENTOP...QUEEN CITY...DOWNING...WORTHINGTON...LIVONIA
  AND GLENWOOD.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4058 9234 4032 9235 4019 9253 4029 9281
      4059 9268 4060 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 217DEG 39KT 4030 9262

MELL