Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Kansas City, MO

902 
WWUS53 KEAX 200120
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
820 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MOC037-047-049-200130-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-130520T0145Z/
CASS MO-CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-
820 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLINTON...EASTERN CLAY AND 
EASTERN CASS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3884 9435 3918 9416 3975 9421 3979 9377
      3920 9376 3920 9375 3884 9374 3883 9412
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 252DEG 34KT 3968 9397 3923 9389
          3887 9396

$$

MOC025-095-101-107-177-200145-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-130520T0145Z/
CALDWELL MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-RAY MO-
820 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CALDWELL
COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND RAY...WESTERN LAFAYETTE...
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON AND EASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 817 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM KINGSTON TO HENRIETTA TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
KINGSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEXINGTON...COWGILL...HARDIN...MAYVIEW...BRAYMER...BRECKENRIDGE...
RUSSELLVILLE AND FAYETTEVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 23 AND 49.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 9435 3918 9416 3975 9421 3979 9377
      3920 9376 3920 9375 3884 9374 3883 9412
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 252DEG 34KT 3968 9397 3923 9389
          3887 9396

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HAWBLITZEL

354 
WWUS53 KEAX 200139
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
839 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MOC025-095-101-107-177-200149-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-130520T0145Z/
CALDWELL MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-RAY MO-
839 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CALDWELL COUNTY IN NORTH 
CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND RAY...WESTERN LAFAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON
AND EASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT 
845 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED
OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3884 9435 3918 9416 3975 9421 3979 9377
      3920 9376 3920 9375 3884 9374 3883 9412
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 252DEG 34KT 3973 9374 3928 9367
          3892 9374

$$

HAWBLITZEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 PM CDT Sun May 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.

Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.

Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.

Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control.  Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains.  Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Line of severe thunderstorms tracking northeast 35kts will affect the
KMCI/KMKC terminals for about 2 hours at the start of the forecast.
High probability for winds greater than 50kts and potential for large
hail with this line. KSTJ will also be affected by this same line but
convection may last for an hour or two longer. After passage of this
line the rain chances pretty much end. Will be watching for re-
development towards sunrise Monday as a couple of the short range
convective models are picking up on this.

Otherwise, VFR conditions for Monday. With the frontal boundary
still draped over west central MO through Monday there is a chance
for convection to reform from Kansas City southward with chances
increasing the further south you get away from Kansas City.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
513 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
513 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS EVENING. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...THE GREATEST THREAT AND IMPACT WILL EXIST
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE GREATER
KANSAS CITY AND ST JOSEPH AREAS. STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL ONCE GAIN BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS BY MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...GENERALLY EAST OF A
CHILLICOTHE TO CLINTON LINE.

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
MONDAY.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
747 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. JOSEPH              39.77N 94.85W
05/19/2013  M59 MPH          BUCHANAN           MO   ASOS

&&

DUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
752 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N WESTON              39.46N 94.90W
05/19/2013                   PLATTE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE WESTON AREA ALONG AND BLOCKING
            45 TO BUCHANAN COUNTY LINE

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
754 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW LIBERTY            39.28N 94.47W
05/19/2013  E60.00 MPH       CLAY               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
756 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND GST     WHITEMAN AFB            38.73N 93.55W
05/19/2013  M54 MPH          JOHNSON            MO   ASOS

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
757 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     TSTM WND GST     KANSAS CITY             39.12N 94.55W
05/19/2013  M68 MPH          JACKSON            MO   ASOS

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
759 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E LEES SUMMIT         38.92N 94.33W
05/19/2013                   JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 INCH DIAMETER TREE SNAPPED

&&

ABAILEY