Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Kansas City, MO

123 
WWUS53 KEAX 200106
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
806 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSC107-121-MOC013-083-200116-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-130520T0115Z/
MIAMI KS-LINN KS-BATES MO-HENRY MO-
806 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LINN AND SOUTHERN MIAMI
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN HENRY AND
BATES COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3804 9424 3805 9426 3806 9461 3803 9462
      3804 9508 3847 9507 3847 9430 3845 9422
      3846 9409 3845 9407 3847 9407 3847 9405
      3803 9405 3804 9412 3805 9413 3804 9419
      3805 9421 3802 9422 3802 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 270DEG 44KT 3845 9417 3805 9441

$$

HAWBLITZEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 PM CDT Sun May 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.

Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.

Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.

Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control.  Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains.  Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Line of severe thunderstorms tracking northeast 35kts will affect the
KMCI/KMKC terminals for about 2 hours at the start of the forecast.
High probability for winds greater than 50kts and potential for large
hail with this line. KSTJ will also be affected by this same line but
convection may last for an hour or two longer. After passage of this
line the rain chances pretty much end. Will be watching for re-
development towards sunrise Monday as a couple of the short range
convective models are picking up on this.

Otherwise, VFR conditions for Monday. With the frontal boundary
still draped over west central MO through Monday there is a chance
for convection to reform from Kansas City southward with chances
increasing the further south you get away from Kansas City.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
513 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
513 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS EVENING. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...THE GREATEST THREAT AND IMPACT WILL EXIST
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE GREATER
KANSAS CITY AND ST JOSEPH AREAS. STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL ONCE GAIN BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS BY MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...GENERALLY EAST OF A
CHILLICOTHE TO CLINTON LINE.

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
MONDAY.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
715 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     HAIL             1 W DE SOTO             38.97N 94.97W
05/19/2013  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
719 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     URICH                   38.46N 94.00W
05/19/2013                   HENRY              MO   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BLOWN OVER...ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS

&&

DUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
720 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     ATCHISON                39.56N 95.12W
05/19/2013  E60 MPH          ATCHISON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

DUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
721 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E GARDNER             38.81N 94.91W
05/19/2013  E72 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEAVENWORTH             39.32N 94.92W
05/19/2013                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
724 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OSAWATOMIE              38.50N 94.95W
05/19/2013                   MIAMI              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN OVER ROADS NEAR OSAWATOMIE

&&

DUX