Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ARCING BACK TOWARD
SOUTHERN CWA FROM CENTRAL IL. STRENGTHENING ELEVATED WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE SFC BOUNDARY AND AHEAD
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST IA RESULTING IN
EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST IA ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP INTO
CWA REST OF THIS EVE INTO OVRNGT WITH VEERING JET AND PASSING
DISTURBANCE. SHEAR IS LACKING AND SO SEVERE RISK APPEARS MINIMAL
AND MAINLY OF PULSE TYPE FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL 1-2+ INCHES GIVEN
MESO-BETA CONVECTIVE SCALE ELEMENTS MOVING AT 10-19 KTS...WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 4KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGH 12Z. SINCE THE EARLIER FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INCLUDED THE QUAD CITIES FOR WHICH MANY LOCATIONS HAVE NOT
HAD HARDLY ANY MEASURABLE RAIN PAST 8-10+ DAYS... FELT OBLIGATED
TO EXPAND IT SOUTHWARD TO CATCH THE AREAS WHERE IT IS IN FACT RAINING
OR WILL BE SOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IN ILLINOIS AND THEN BACK WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE A
MESO HIGH WAS COLLAPSING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. SYNOPTIC LOWS WERE
NEAR KDDC AND NORTH OF KAMA WITH FRONTS CONNECTING BOTH OF THEM. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA TO NEAR KFNB WHILE THE
COLD FRONT RAN FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TO NEAR KHSI. DEW POINTS WERE
IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THE QUESTION IS NOT IF STORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT/MONDAY BUT WHERE
AND WHEN.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR EAST AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS COUNTIES WERE THE OUTFLOW INITIATED CONVECTION AND POST
STRATIFORM RAIN IS LOCATED. THESE AREAS WILL BE SEEING THE RAIN END
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KANSAS INTO MISSOURI IN CONCERT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC LOWS AND FRONTS SHOULD THEN BECOME THE INITIATION POINTS
FOR NEW CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS
HAVE NOT DONE WELL TODAY...THERE IS AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INDICATING THE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR NEW CONVECTION THIS EVENING. IF THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ARE
CORRECT...A NEW UPSCALE MCS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO
THE CWFA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE CURRENT HEADLINES...THEY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE. THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA ARE MOST AT RISK BUT THE MCS SIGNALS ARE
SUGGESTING THE HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWFA. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR BACK
BUILDING TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WOULD NEED TO
OCCUR BEFORE PROBLEMS WOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...SUCH HEAVY RAIN IN
URBAN AREAS WOULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER.

MONDAY...THE MCS SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS WOULD THEN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF A RESPECTABLE COLD
POOL DEVELOPS IT MAY PRECLUDE ANY NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL FROM THE MCS.     ..08..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

MONDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AS A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN HIGH WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1
TO 1.5 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT COULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING. RISES IN RIVER LEVELS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK VORT MAX PASSES OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH DAY WITH
CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100. MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST
TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A TROF DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CHANGE WILL USHER
IN A COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY MAKING
FOR PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AREAS OF CHANNELED VORTICITY RIDES
OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PASSES NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.    ..KUHL..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON AT LEAST A SCATTERED BASIS
OVERNIGHT WITH FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH OF I-80 TOWARD AM.
ANTICIPATE SOME BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OR DECREASE IN COVERAGE
MONDAY AM AS FIRST WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES THOUGH LIKELY TO RESULT IN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS... ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
STORMS COULD BRING IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-240900-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-CLINTON
IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-HENRY
IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-
JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-
MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-
STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
445 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY. SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY SURPASS SEVERE THRESHOLDS...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND ALSO LARGE HAIL OF AT LEAST QUARTER
SIZE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE NATURE OF THESE STORMS SUGGEST ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD
MORE LIKELY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE GREATER RISK IS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES...PRODUCING PROLONGED CONVECTION LEADING TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY 4 INCHES OR MORE. THIS POSES A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING AND RENEWED RIVER FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SEE THIS AND OTHER HYDROLOGIC
PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 1 INCH AND ANY WATER ISSUES WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.

14/NICHOLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
954 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

IAZ077-087-088-098-240345-
HENRY-JEFFERSON-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON-
954 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAIN...

AT 945 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF BATAVIA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OTTUMWA...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BATAVIA AROUND 1005 PM CDT...
  ABINGDON AROUND 1015 PM CDT...
  LIBERTYVILLE AROUND 1020 PM CDT...
  MAHARISHI VEDIC CITY AROUND 1030 PM CDT...
  FAIRFIELD AROUND 1035 PM CDT...
  8 MILES SOUTH OF PLEASANT PLAIN AND 9 MILES WEST OF LOCKRIDGE
  AROUND 1045 PM CDT...

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 35 MPH AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO
2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN HOUR...WHICH WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS...AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS
AND CREEKS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STANDING WATER ON ROADS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 4096 9218 4110 9219 4121 9176 4095 9167
      4089 9219 4095 9219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 256DEG 17KT 4098 9226

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>