Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
323 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

VARIOUS HIRES AND OTHER NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE MAP FOR
TONIGHT AFTER CURRENT MCS BLOWS THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING.
BULK OF BETTER SUPPORT AND INCOMING WAVE FOCUSES OFF JUST TO THE
NORTH WITH NEW MCS DEVELOPMENT ACRS MN INTO WI AND FAR NE
IOWA...BUT FEEL REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COOL POOLS OVER THE
AREA IN WAKE OF CURRENT SYSTEM MAY BE A FOCAL POINT FOR NOCTURNAL
LLJ JET TO STREAM INTO AND INITIATE NEW CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING AFTER A MID EVENING LULL. WILL KEEP HIGHER
CHC POPS GOING CWA-WIDE WITH UNCERTAINTIES TONIGHT INTO TUE AM. PW
FEED OF 1.6-1.8+ INCHES SUGGESTS ANY MORE STORMS CAPABLE OF MORE
UNNEEDED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL EXTEND ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 12Z TUE. IF WE LUCK OUT...HEAVIER CONVECTION MAY FALL BOTH
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE HEAVY RAIN HIT AREAS OF LAST NIGHT
AND THIS MORNING BUT CAN/T TAKE THAT CHANCE AND AGAIN THE FFA
EXTENDED INTO TUE MORNING. OF COURSE WHAT LINGERS OUT OF TONIGHT
WILL EFFECT TOMORROW IN ONGOING CONVECTIVE CYCLE UNDER RING OF
FIRE...WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPS.
WARM UP DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

FORECAST FOCUS ON SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MCS GENERATION TOOL SUGGESTS A LARGE MCS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF CWA...IN AREAS THAT HAD SIGNIFICANT TO
MAJOR FLASH FLOODING LAST NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRENGTHENING
TO 50 KNOTS IN MO WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN WI. THIS SETS UP THE MCS ON
THE NOSE OF THE JET WITH STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA AND A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JUNE.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR REPEATING/BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
CERTAINLY FEASIBLE WHICH WOULD CAUSE SERIOUS/MAJOR FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AS MAJOR CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EAST/RIDGE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN OR NEAR THE CWA.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

UNSETTLED AFTERNOON TO SAY THE LEAST FOR THE TERMINALS. CID...DBQ
AND MLI ALL TO GET ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND BOUTS OF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AS THEY/STORMS PASS FROM NOW THROUGH 20Z. THEN A ROUND OF
STRONG TO SVR STORMS TO IMPACT CID...DBQ AND BRL FROM 20Z-01Z OR
SO FROM THE WEST. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE IN VCNTY OF ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE STORMS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. HARD TO TIME MVFR TO VFR WINDOWS BETWEEN THE STORMS.
MORE NOCTURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AFTER A MID
EVENING LULL.    ..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE BASINS OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS...AND
EXPECTED MORE OF 1-2 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS THROUGH TUE WILL DRIVE AREA
RIVERS UP AGAIN...BOTH ON SECTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND
INCOMING TRIBUTARIES. THE ROCK...WAPSI AND PECATONICA RIVERS
ALREADY COMING UP FAST AND HAVE NEW WARNINGS ON SOME FCST POINTS.
MORE MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. THE UPPER
MAQUOKETA RIVER ALSO EXPERIENCING RISES. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.     ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
712 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-251215-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
712 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 2 TO LOCALLY OVER 6 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY. AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS
LOW SPOTS...CREAKS...AND TRIBUTARY RIVERS.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
OTTUMWA IOWA...TO GALESBURG ILLINOIS...TO LA SALLE ILLINOIS.

SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY SURPASS SEVERE LIMITS
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL OR LARGE OR DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH
OR MORE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING
FLOODING CONCERNS OR MAY CREATE NEW ONES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH AND ANY FLOODING ISSUES
WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
323 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE WELLMAN           41.54N 91.81W
06/24/2013                   JOHNSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 FT PINE TREE BLOWN DOWN. ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS. ALSO
            OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TORNADO          N MUSCATINE             41.42N 91.07W
06/24/2013                   MUSCATINE          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND WITH SEMI TRUCK OVERTURNED ON
            HIGHWAY 61 AND INDEPENDENCE ST NEAR BLAINS FARM AND
            FLEET.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND GST     MUSCATINE MUNICIPAL AIR 41.37N 91.15W
06/24/2013  M51 MPH          MUSCATINE          IA   AWOS

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     TORNADO          3 N STANWOOD            41.94N 91.15W
06/24/2013                   CEDAR              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     TORNADO          N MUSCATINE             41.42N 91.07W
06/24/2013                   MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEMI TRUCKS FLIPPED OVER ON RT 61 NEAR THE MENARDS AND
            BLAINS FARM AND FLEET.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N STANWOOD            41.94N 91.15W
06/24/2013  E60 MPH          CEDAR              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GROSS