River Flood Warning 146, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
101 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS
AM.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NE/KS BORDER TO NORTH
CENTRAL MO BEFORE DIPPING SOUTHWARD.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FOUND
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND FURTHER UPSTREAM A BOWING LINE OF STORMS IS
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE SHORT TERM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AREAS TODAY.  THE CONVECTIVE AREAS ACROSS NE AND CENTRAL IA
WILL TRACK EASTWARD EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CWFA.  AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT SEEING THE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF  THUNDERSTORMS.  EACH THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THAT WITH REPEATED ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS SOME AREAS COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.  DROPPED THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WITH THE FOCUS MORE DEFINED TO BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
THROUGH WED NIGHT/THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

UNSETTLED AFTERNOON TO SAY THE LEAST FOR THE TERMINALS. CID...DBQ
AND MLI ALL TO GET ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND BOUTS OF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AS THEY/STORMS PASS FROM NOW THROUGH 20Z. THEN A ROUND OF
STRONG TO SVR STORMS TO IMPACT CID...DBQ AND BRL FROM 20Z-01Z OR
SO FROM THE WEST. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE IN VCNTY OF ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE STORMS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. HARD TO TIME MVFR TO VFR WINDOWS BETWEEN THE STORMS.
MORE NOCTURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AFTER A MID
EVENING LULL.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
712 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-251215-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
712 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 2 TO LOCALLY OVER 6 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY. AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS
LOW SPOTS...CREAKS...AND TRIBUTARY RIVERS.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
OTTUMWA IOWA...TO GALESBURG ILLINOIS...TO LA SALLE ILLINOIS.

SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY SURPASS SEVERE LIMITS
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL OR LARGE OR DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH
OR MORE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING
FLOODING CONCERNS OR MAY CREATE NEW ONES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH AND ANY FLOODING ISSUES
WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
230 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W MEMPHIS               40.46N 92.17W
06/24/2013                   SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWN. WINDS ESTIMATED 50 MPH. POWER
            JUST WENT OUT.

&&

DLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
235 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W MEMPHIS               40.46N 92.17W
06/24/2013                   SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN.

&&

DLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
236 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W BETTENDORF          41.56N 90.49W
06/24/2013  M3.13 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL FOR TODAY SO FAR.

&&

DLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
239 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 E CANTRIL             40.64N 91.98W
06/24/2013  E60 MPH          VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
241 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE FAIRFIELD         41.05N 91.95W
06/24/2013                   JEFFERSON          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL 3 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN OF AN ASH TREE WITH THE
            STORMS.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
248 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND GST     IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIR 41.63N 91.55W
06/24/2013  M65 MPH          JOHNSON            IA   ASOS

&&

GROSS