Alert archive / New York / River Flood Warnings in 2013

River Flood Warning 11, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 21, 2013Erie County, Genesee County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this river flood warning at Dec 21, 2013, 11:33 AM EST for Erie County, Genesee County, New York. It took effect at Dec 22, 2013, 2:03 AM EST. It was in force for 38 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 21, 2013, 11:33 AM EST (16:33 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 22, 2013, 2:03 AM EST
Expired
Dec 23, 2013, 3:35 PM EST
In force
38 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Ellicott Creek below Williamsville (WILN6).

Action stage
6 ft
Minor stage
8 ft
Moderate stage
10 ft
Major stage
12 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04218518, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

384 
WGUS41 KBUF 211633
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW YORK...

  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW YORK...
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW YORK...
  CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW YORK...
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW YORK...
  CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC009-013-029-121-212233-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0001.131221T2308Z-131223T0448Z/
/GOWN6.2.ER.131221T2308Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2248Z.NO/
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
* FROM THIS EVENING TO SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 10 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  EVENING AND CREST NEAR 12.1 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...CREEK OVERFLOWS LEFT BANK 
  0.5 TO 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FROM GOWANDA...SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD. CONTINUED FLOODING ON RIGHT BANK. FLOODING ALSO 
  POSSIBLE IN ARCADE, AT SUNSET BAY ON LAKE ERIE, AND ALONG THATCHER 
  BROOK IN GOWANDA.

$$

NYC029-212233-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0002.131221T1700Z-131223T0220Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.131221T1700Z.131222T0600Z.131222T2020Z.UU/
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 13.1 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS 
  POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHGATE PLAZA IN WEST SENECA. 
  CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN THE CAZENOVIA PARK AREA OF SOUTH 
  BUFFALO AND WEST SENECA.

$$

NYC029-121-212233-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0003.131221T2240Z-131222T2110Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.131221T2240Z.131222T0600Z.131222T1510Z.NO/
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 8.1 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG LOW
  LYING AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO CREEK...ESPECIALLY NEAR COLLINS 
  AVENUE, ELMA TOWN PARK, AND IN SOME SECTIONS OF ELMA VILLAGE NORTH 
  OF THE BOWEN ROAD BRIDGE.

$$

NYC029-121-212233-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0004.131221T2136Z-131223T0438Z/
/LCSN6.2.ER.131221T2136Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2238Z.UU/
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 10 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 10.1 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING OF BACKYARDS, 
  BASEMENTS AND STREETS IN VILLAGE OF LANCASTER. SOME FLOODING OF LOW
  LYING AREAS IN ALDEN, MARILLA, AND CHEEKTOWAGA...ESPECIALLY NEAR 
  BOWEN ROAD AND TRANSIT ROAD. SOME FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR UNION 
  ROAD.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-212233-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0005.131222T1113Z-131223T2116Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T1113Z.131223T0000Z.131223T1516Z.NO/
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 11.2 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 1O FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING OCCURS ALONG THE
  ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN THE 
  ALABAMA SWAMPS...AND PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA.

$$

NYC029-063-212233-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0006.131223T1242Z-000000T0000Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T1242Z.131224T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 15.2 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...THERE ARE MANY ROAD CLOSURES
  FROM NORTH CLARENCE EAST INTO NEWSTEAD AND ROYALTON INCLUDING
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD AND RAPIDS ROAD. BACKWATER FLOODING BEGINS 
  INTO NORTH AMHERST ON SMALLER CREEKS SUCH AS RANSOM...BLACK...
  BEEMAN...AND MUD CREEKS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF FARMLAND.

$$

NYC003-051-121-212233-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0007.131222T1405Z-131223T1120Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.131222T1405Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0520Z.NO/
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 11 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  SUNDAY MORNING AND CREST NEAR 20.6 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE.

$$

NYC037-055-212233-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0008.131223T0130Z-131224T1200Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1200Z.131224T0600Z.UU/
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 11 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.2 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  EVENING AND CREST NEAR 6.4 FEET MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS WITH SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE 
  AND GARBUTT.

$$

NYC009-212232-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0009.131222T0742Z-131225T1312Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T0742Z.131224T0000Z.131225T0712Z.NO/
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 10 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  TONIGHT AND CREST NEAR 12.9 FEET MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD...WATER OVERFLOWS ONTO EAST 
  RIVERSIDE DRIVE 1 TO 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM UNION STREET BRIDGE.

$$

NYC009-212232-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0010.131222T1530Z-131223T1800Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.131222T1530Z.131223T0000Z.131223T1200Z.NO/
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  SUNDAY MORNING AND CREST NEAR 13.0 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...MINOR FLOOD...MINOR FLOODING OCCURS ALONG
  THE ENTIRE REACH NEAR SALAMANCA IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-212232-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0011.131222T0703Z-131223T1948Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0703Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1348Z.NR/
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  TONIGHT AND CREST NEAR 9.8 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. AMHERST BIKE PATH NEAR THE UNIVERSITY OF BUFFALO 
  FLOODED AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA 
  POSSIBLY CLOSED. FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE HALL. 
  AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO 
  SEWER BACKUPS.

$$

HITCHCOCK
12 follow-up statements
810 
WGUS81 KBUF 212050
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
  CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER
  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC009-013-029-121-220250-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0001.131221T2325Z-131223T0448Z/
/GOWN6.2.ER.131221T2325Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2248Z.NO/
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 3 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  EVENING AND CREST NEAR 12.1 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...CREEK OVERFLOWS LEFT BANK 
  0.5 TO 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FROM GOWANDA...SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD. CONTINUED FLOODING ON RIGHT BANK. FLOODING ALSO 
  POSSIBLE IN ARCADE, AT SUNSET BAY ON LAKE ERIE, AND ALONG THATCHER 
  BROOK IN GOWANDA.

$$

NYC029-220250-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131223T0220Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.131221T1834Z.131222T0600Z.131222T2020Z.UU/
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 3 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 13.1 FEET
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS 
  POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHGATE PLAZA IN WEST SENECA. 
  CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN THE CAZENOVIA PARK AREA OF SOUTH 
  BUFFALO AND WEST SENECA.

$$

NYC029-121-220250-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0003.131221T2201Z-131222T2110Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.131221T2201Z.131222T0600Z.131222T1510Z.NO/
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 8.1 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG LOW
  LYING AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO CREEK...ESPECIALLY NEAR COLLINS 
  AVENUE, ELMA TOWN PARK, AND IN SOME SECTIONS OF ELMA VILLAGE NORTH 
  OF THE BOWEN ROAD BRIDGE.

$$

NYC029-121-220250-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0004.131221T2130Z-131223T0438Z/
/LCSN6.2.ER.131221T2130Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2238Z.UU/
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 3 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 10.1 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING OF BACKYARDS, 
  BASEMENTS AND STREETS IN VILLAGE OF LANCASTER. SOME FLOODING OF LOW
  LYING AREAS IN ALDEN, MARILLA, AND CHEEKTOWAGA...ESPECIALLY NEAR 
  BOWEN ROAD AND TRANSIT ROAD. SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE NEAR UNION ROAD
  TOO.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-220250-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.131222T1113Z-131223T2116Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T1113Z.131223T0000Z.131223T1516Z.NO/
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 11.2 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 1O FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING OCCURS ALONG THE
  ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN THE 
  ALABAMA SWAMPS...AND PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA.

$$

NYC029-063-220250-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0006.131223T1242Z-000000T0000Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T1242Z.131224T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 3 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CREST NEAR 15.2 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...THERE ARE MANY ROAD CLOSURES
  FROM NORTH CLARENCE EAST INTO NEWSTEAD AND ROYALTON INCLUDING
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD AND RAPIDS ROAD. BACKWATER FLOODING BEGINS 
  INTO NORTH AMHERST ON SMALLER CREEKS SUCH AS RANSOM...BLACK...
  BEEMAN...AND MUD CREEKS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF FARMLAND.

$$

NYC003-051-121-220250-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0007.131222T1405Z-131223T1120Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.131222T1405Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0520Z.NO/
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 3 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  SUNDAY MORNING AND CREST NEAR 20.6 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE.

$$

NYC037-055-220250-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0008.131223T0130Z-131224T1200Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1200Z.131224T0600Z.UU/
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 3 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  EVENING AND CREST NEAR 6.4 FEET MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

NYC009-220250-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0009.131222T1000Z-131224T2248Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1000Z.131222T1800Z.131224T1648Z.NO/
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 2 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  SUNDAY MORNING AND CREST NEAR 11.2 FEET EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD...WATER OVERFLOWS ONTO EAST 
  RIVERSIDE DRIVE 1 TO 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM UNION STREET BRIDGE.

$$

NYC009-220250-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0010.131223T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.NO/
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* AT 3 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE 
  REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-220249-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0011.131222T0703Z-131223T1948Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0703Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1348Z.NR/
350 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  TONIGHT AND CREST NEAR 9.4 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. AMHERST BIKE PATH NEAR UNIVERSITY OF BUFFALO FLOODED 
  AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. 
  FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST 
  FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO SEWER BACKUPS.

$$

HITCHCOCK
498 
WGUS81 KBUF 220023
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
  CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
  CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC009-013-029-121-220623-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131223T0448Z/
/GOWN6.2.ER.131221T2217Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2248Z.NO/
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 7 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  TONIGHT AND CREST NEAR 12.1 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...CREEK OVERFLOWS LEFT BANK 
  0.5 TO 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FROM GOWANDA...SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD. CONTINUED FLOODING ON RIGHT BANK. FLOODING ALSO 
  POSSIBLE IN ARCADE, AT SUNSET BAY ON LAKE ERIE, AND ALONG THATCHER 
  BROOK IN GOWANDA.

$$

NYC029-220623-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131223T0220Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.131221T1834Z.131222T0600Z.131222T2020Z.UU/
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 7 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 13.1 FEET
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS 
  POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHGATE PLAZA IN WEST SENECA. 
  CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN THE CAZENOVIA PARK AREA OF SOUTH 
  BUFFALO AND WEST SENECA.

$$

NYC029-121-220623-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-131222T2110Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.131221T2145Z.131222T0600Z.131222T1510Z.NO/
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 8.1 FEET 
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG LOW
  LYING AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO CREEK...ESPECIALLY NEAR COLLINS 
  AVENUE, ELMA TOWN PARK, AND IN SOME SECTIONS OF ELMA VILLAGE NORTH 
  OF THE BOWEN ROAD BRIDGE.

$$

NYC029-121-220623-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-131223T0438Z/
/LCSN6.2.ER.131221T2205Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2238Z.UU/
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 6 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 10.1 FEET
  SUNDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING OF BACKYARDS, 
  BASEMENTS AND STREETS IN VILLAGE OF LANCASTER. SOME FLOODING OF LOW
  LYING AREAS IN ALDEN, MARILLA, AND CHEEKTOWAGA...ESPECIALLY NEAR 
  BOWEN ROAD AND TRANSIT ROAD. SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE NEAR UNION ROAD
  TOO.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-220623-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.131222T1113Z-131223T2116Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T1113Z.131223T0000Z.131223T1516Z.NO/
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 11.2 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING OCCURS ALONG THE
  ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN THE 
  ALABAMA SWAMPS...AND PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA.

$$

NYC029-063-220623-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0006.131223T1242Z-000000T0000Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T1242Z.131224T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CREST NEAR 15.2 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...THERE ARE MANY ROAD CLOSURES
  FROM NORTH CLARENCE EAST INTO NEWSTEAD AND ROYALTON INCLUDING
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD AND RAPIDS ROAD. BACKWATER FLOODING BEGINS 
  INTO NORTH AMHERST ON SMALLER CREEKS SUCH AS RANSOM...BLACK...
  BEEMAN...AND MUD CREEKS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF FARMLAND.

$$

NYC003-051-121-220622-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0007.131222T1405Z-131223T1120Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.131222T1405Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0520Z.NO/
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 7 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  SUNDAY MORNING AND CREST NEAR 20.6 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE.

$$

NYC037-055-220622-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0008.131223T0130Z-131224T1200Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1200Z.131224T0600Z.UU/
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 7 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  EVENING AND CREST NEAR 6.4 FEET MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

NYC009-220622-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0009.131222T1000Z-131224T2248Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1000Z.131222T1800Z.131224T1648Z.NO/
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  SUNDAY MORNING AND CREST NEAR 11.2 FEET EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD...WATER OVERFLOWS ONTO EAST 
  RIVERSIDE DRIVE 1 TO 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM UNION STREET BRIDGE.

$$

NYC009-220622-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0010.131223T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.NO/
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* AT 7 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE 
  REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-220622-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0011.131222T0703Z-131223T1948Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0703Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1348Z.NR/
723 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  TONIGHT AND CREST NEAR 9.4 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. AMHERST BIKE PATH NEAR UNIVERSITY OF BUFFALO FLOODED 
  AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. 
  FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST 
  FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO SEWER BACKUPS.

$$
573 
WGUS81 KBUF 220414
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
  CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
  CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC009-013-029-121-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131223T0448Z/
/GOWN6.2.ER.131221T2217Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2248Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 12.1 FEET
  SUNDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...CREEK OVERFLOWS LEFT BANK 
  0.5 TO 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FROM GOWANDA...SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD. CONTINUED FLOODING ON RIGHT BANK. FLOODING ALSO 
  POSSIBLE IN ARCADE, AT SUNSET BAY ON LAKE ERIE, AND ALONG THATCHER 
  BROOK IN GOWANDA.

$$

NYC029-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131223T0220Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.131221T1834Z.131222T0600Z.131222T2020Z.UU/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 13.1 FEET
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS 
  POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHGATE PLAZA IN WEST SENECA. 
  CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN THE CAZENOVIA PARK AREA OF SOUTH 
  BUFFALO AND WEST SENECA.

$$

NYC029-121-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-131222T2110Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.131221T2145Z.131222T0600Z.131222T1510Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 8.1 FEET 
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG LOW
  LYING AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO CREEK...ESPECIALLY NEAR COLLINS 
  AVENUE, ELMA TOWN PARK, AND IN SOME SECTIONS OF ELMA VILLAGE NORTH 
  OF THE BOWEN ROAD BRIDGE.

$$

NYC029-121-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-131223T0438Z/
/LCSN6.2.ER.131221T2205Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2238Z.UU/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT 
  AND CREST NEAR 10.1 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING OF BACKYARDS, 
  BASEMENTS AND STREETS IN VILLAGE OF LANCASTER. SOME FLOODING OF LOW
  LYING AREAS IN ALDEN, MARILLA, AND CHEEKTOWAGA...ESPECIALLY NEAR 
  BOWEN ROAD AND TRANSIT ROAD. SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE NEAR UNION ROAD
  TOO.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.131222T1113Z-131223T2116Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T1113Z.131223T0000Z.131223T1516Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 11.2 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING OCCURS ALONG THE
  ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN THE 
  ALABAMA SWAMPS...AND PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA.

$$

NYC029-063-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0006.131223T1242Z-000000T0000Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T1242Z.131224T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CREST NEAR 15.2 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...THERE ARE MANY ROAD CLOSURES
  FROM NORTH CLARENCE EAST INTO NEWSTEAD AND ROYALTON INCLUDING
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD AND RAPIDS ROAD. BACKWATER FLOODING BEGINS 
  INTO NORTH AMHERST ON SMALLER CREEKS SUCH AS RANSOM...BLACK...
  BEEMAN...AND MUD CREEKS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF FARMLAND.

$$

NYC003-051-121-221013-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0007.131222T1118Z-131223T0312Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.131222T1118Z.131222T1800Z.131222T2112Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 19.8 FEET EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE.

$$

NYC037-055-221013-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0008.131222T1648Z-131224T0900Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131222T1648Z.131223T0600Z.131224T0300Z.UU/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  SUNDAY MORNING AND CREST NEAR 6.5 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

NYC009-221013-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0009.131222T1014Z-131225T0448Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1014Z.131223T0000Z.131224T2248Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  SUNDAY MORNING AND CREST NEAR 11.9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD...WATER OVERFLOWS ONTO EAST 
  RIVERSIDE DRIVE 1 TO 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM UNION STREET BRIDGE.

$$

NYC009-221013-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0010.131222T2136Z-131223T1330Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.131222T2136Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0730Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 12.2 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE 
  REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-221013-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0011.131222T0703Z-131223T1948Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0703Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1348Z.NR/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  TONIGHT AND CREST NEAR 9.4 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. AMHERST BIKE PATH NEAR UNIVERSITY OF BUFFALO FLOODED 
  AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. 
  FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST 
  FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO SEWER BACKUPS.

$$
208 
WGUS81 KBUF 220940
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
  CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
  CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.

&&

NYC009-013-029-121-221540-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131223T0440Z/
/GOWN6.2.ER.131221T2217Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2240Z.NR/
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 4 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 12.4 FEET
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...CREEK OVERFLOWS LEFT BANK 
  0.5 TO 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FROM GOWANDA...SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD. CONTINUED FLOODING ON RIGHT BANK. FLOODING ALSO 
  POSSIBLE IN ARCADE, AT SUNSET BAY ON LAKE ERIE, AND ALONG THATCHER 
  BROOK IN GOWANDA.

$$

NYC029-221540-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131223T0240Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.131221T1834Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2040Z.UU/
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 4 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 12.4 FEET
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
  IN VICINITY OF SOUTHGATE PLAZA IN WEST SENECA; CONSIDERABLE 
  FLOODING IN THE CAZENOVIA PARK AREA OF SOUTH BUFFALO AND WEST 
  SENECA.

$$

NYC029-121-221540-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-131222T2200Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.131221T2145Z.131222T1200Z.131222T1600Z.NO/
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 2 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 8.0 FEET 
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG LOW
  LYING AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO CREEK...ESPECIALLY NEAR COLLINS 
  AVENUE, ELMA TOWN PARK, AND IN SOME SECTIONS OF ELMA VILLAGE NORTH 
  OF THE BOWEN ROAD BRIDGE.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-221540-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.131222T0933Z-131223T1800Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0818Z.131222T1800Z.131223T1200Z.NO/
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 10.1 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE 
  REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN ALABAMA SWAMPS, 
  RAPIDS, AND NORTHERN CLARENCE AND AMHERST...AND ALSO IN CITY OF 
  BATAVIA WEST OF MAIN STREET.

$$

NYC029-063-221540-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.131223T0400Z-000000T0000Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0400Z.131224T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 4 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND CREST 
  NEAR 15.6 FEET MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC003-051-121-221539-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0007.131222T1536Z-131223T0207Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.131222T1536Z.131222T1800Z.131222T2007Z.NO/
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING.
* AT 4 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 19.6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE.

$$

NYC009-221539-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0009.131222T1128Z-131225T0448Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1128Z.131223T0000Z.131224T2248Z.NO/
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 3 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 11.9 FEET THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD...WATER OVERFLOWS ONTO EAST 
  RIVERSIDE DRIVE 1 TO 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM UNION STREET BRIDGE.

$$

NYC009-221539-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0010.131222T2136Z-131223T1330Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.131222T2136Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0730Z.NO/
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 4 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 12.2 FEET THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE 
  REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-121-221539-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-131222T1918Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.131221T2205Z.131222T1200Z.131222T1318Z.UU/
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 8.5 FEET 
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING IN LOWLYING 
  AREAS OF LANCASTER AND ALDEN.

$$

NYC029-037-221539-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T1600Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131222T1800Z.131223T1000Z.NR/
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 4 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 9.8 FEET 
  THIS AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. UB BIKE PATH FLOODED AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO 
  TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE 
  HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO 
  SEWER BACKUPS.

$$

NYC037-055-221010-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-131224T0900Z/
/GRBN6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
440 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT.
* AT 4 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 5.2 FEET THIS 
  MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND THEREFORE THE 
  WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* IMPACT...AT 5.0 FEET...ACTION STAGE...SOME MINOR OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS NEAR CONFLUENCE WITH GENESEE RIVER. NO DAMAGES.

$$

APFFEL
757 
WGUS81 KBUF 221500
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
  CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC029-037-063-121-222059-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131223T2212Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T1800Z.131223T1612Z.NO/
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 11.5 FEET
  THIS AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL AND 
  COMMERCIAL FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO 
  TONAWANDA. CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 5 IN THE
  TOWN OF BATAVIA JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA.

$$

NYC029-063-222059-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.131222T2012Z-131224T2327Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131222T2012Z.131223T1800Z.131224T1727Z.NR/
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 9 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 15.4 FEET EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC003-051-121-222059-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0007.131222T1635Z-131223T0207Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.131222T1635Z.131222T1800Z.131222T2007Z.NO/
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 9 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 19.6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE.

$$

NYC009-222059-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131225T0130Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1541Z.131224T0000Z.131224T1930Z.NO/
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 9 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 10.2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER
  IS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HAVE A SECOND
  CREST NEAR 10.4 FEET MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-222059-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0010.131223T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.NO/
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 9 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE 
  REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC009-013-029-121-222059-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131223T0440Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.131221T2217Z.131222T0700Z.131222T2240Z.NO/
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 9 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 11.4 FEET
  THIS AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...CREEK OVERFLOWS LEFT BANK 
  0.5 TO 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FROM GOWANDA...SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD. CONTINUED FLOODING ON RIGHT BANK. FLOODING ALSO 
  POSSIBLE IN ARCADE, AT SUNSET BAY ON LAKE ERIE, AND ALONG THATCHER 
  BROOK IN GOWANDA.

$$

NYC029-222059-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131223T0240Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.131221T1834Z.131222T1000Z.131222T2040Z.UU/
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 9 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
  DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...MINOR FLOOD...MINOR FLOODING CAN BE 
  EXPECTED IN LOW LYING AREAS EAST OF ORCHARD PARK AND SOUTH OF
  RIDGE ROAD IN WEST SENECA. SOME FLOODING IN CAZENOVIA PARK IN
  SOUTH BUFFALO.

$$

NYC029-121-222059-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-131222T2215Z/
/GDVN6.1.ER.131221T2145Z.131222T1215Z.131222T1615Z.NO/
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 9 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NONFLOOD FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG LOW
  LYING AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO CREEK...ESPECIALLY NEAR COLLINS 
  AVENUE, ELMA TOWN PARK, AND IN SOME SECTIONS OF ELMA VILLAGE NORTH 
  OF THE BOWEN ROAD BRIDGE.

$$

NYC029-037-222059-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T1600Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131222T1800Z.131223T1000Z.NR/
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 8 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 9.8 FEET 
  THIS AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. AMHERST BIKE PATH NEAR UNIVERSITY OF BUFFALO FLOODED 
  AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. 
  FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST 
  FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO SEWER BACKUPS.

$$

NYC029-121-221530-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-131222T1918Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.131221T2205Z.131222T1045Z.131222T1316Z.UU/
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER.
* AT 9 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND WILL 
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5.6 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

HITCHCOCK
735 
WGUS81 KBUF 221743
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1243 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC029-037-063-121-222343-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131223T2212Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T1800Z.131223T1612Z.NO/
1243 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 12 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 11.5 FEET
  THIS AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL AND 
  COMMERCIAL FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO 
  TONAWANDA. CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 5 IN THE
  TOWN OF BATAVIA JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA.

$$

NYC029-063-222343-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.131222T2012Z-131224T2254Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131222T2012Z.131223T1800Z.131224T1654Z.NR/
1243 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 12 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 15.3 FEET EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC009-222343-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131225T0130Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131224T0000Z.131224T1930Z.NO/
1243 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 10.2 FEET
  THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER MAY FALL SOME TONIGHT...THEN IT WILL
  LIKELY HAVE A SECOND CREST OF NEAR 10.4 FEET MONDAY EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-222343-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0010.131223T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.NO/
1243 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 12 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE 
  REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC009-013-029-121-222343-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131223T0147Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.131221T2217Z.131222T0700Z.131222T1947Z.NO/
1243 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 12 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.1 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS 
  AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG RIGHT 
  BANK 0.5 TO 1.0 MILE DOWNSTREAM FROM GOWANDA, MOSTLY IN INDUSTRIAL 
  AND COMMERCIAL AREAS. WATCH FOR DEVELOPING PROBLEMS ALONG THATCHER 
  CREEK IN GOWANDA, IN TRAILER COURTS IN THE VILLAGE OF ARCADE, AND 
  AT SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH NEAR LAKE ERIE.

$$

NYC029-037-222343-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131224T0030Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1830Z.NO/
1243 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 12 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 9.5 FEET 
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. UB BIKE PATH FLOODED AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO 
  TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE 
  HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO 
  SEWER BACKUPS.

$$

NYC003-051-121-221813-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131223T0207Z/
/PRTN6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1243 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE.
* AT 12 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 18.0 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 13.4 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

NYC029-221813-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131223T0240Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.131221T1834Z.131222T1000Z.131222T1536Z.UU/
1243 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER.
* AT 12 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING AND 
  WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 6.5 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

NYC029-121-221813-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-131222T2215Z/
/GDVN6.1.ER.131221T2145Z.131222T1215Z.131222T1542Z.NO/
1243 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE.
* AT 12 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.1 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING AND 
  WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 3.7 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

HITCHCOCK
087 
WGUS81 KBUF 222039
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC029-037-063-121-230239-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131224T0000Z/
/BTVN6.3.ER.131222T0809Z.131223T0000Z.131223T1800Z.NO/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 12.0 FEET
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL AND 
  COMMERCIAL FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO 
  AMHERST. CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 5 FROM THE 
  WEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA INTO THE TOWN OF BATAVIA AND EAST
  PEMBROKE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND FEEDER 
  STREAMS ALONG TONAWANDA CREEK ESPECIALLY NEAR IROQUOIS NATIONAL
  WILDLIFE REFUGE AND THE TONAWANDA INDIAN RESERVATION.

$$

NYC029-063-230239-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1130Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0316Z.131224T0000Z.131225T0530Z.NR/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT 
  AND CREST NEAR 15.6 FEET MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC037-055-230239-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0012.131223T0000Z-131223T1452Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131223T0000Z.131223T0600Z.131223T0852Z.UU/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* FROM THIS EVENING TO MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  EVENING AND CREST NEAR 6.1 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

NYC009-230239-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1800Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0000Z.131224T1200Z.NO/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 2 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 10.7 FEET
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-230239-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0010.131223T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.NO/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE 
  REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-230239-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131224T0030Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0000Z.131223T1830Z.NR/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 9.8 FEET 
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. UB BIKE PATH FLOODED AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO 
  TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE 
  HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO 
  SEWER BACKUPS.

$$

NYC009-013-029-121-222109-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131223T0147Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.131221T2217Z.131222T0700Z.131222T1717Z.NO/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 4.7 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

HITCHCOCK
846 
WGUS81 KBUF 230036
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC029-037-063-121-230636-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131224T0000Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T2300Z.131223T1800Z.NO/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL AND 
  COMMERCIAL FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO 
  AMHERST. CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 5 FROM THE 
  WEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA INTO THE TOWN OF BATAVIA AND EAST
  PEMBROKE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND FEEDER 
  STREAMS ALONG TONAWANDA CREEK ESPECIALLY NEAR IROQUOIS NATIONAL
  WILDLIFE REFUGE AND THE TONAWANDA INDIAN RESERVATION.

$$

NYC029-063-230636-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1130Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0230Z.131224T0000Z.131225T0530Z.NR/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT 
  AND CREST NEAR 15.6 FEET MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC037-055-230636-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131224T0000Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1800Z.UU/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.2 FEET 
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

NYC009-230636-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1800Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0600Z.131224T1200Z.NO/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 10.7 FEET
  TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-230106-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
/SLMN6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11.8 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 9.9 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE 
  REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-230636-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T2100Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1500Z.NR/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 9.7 FEET 
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. UB BIKE PATH FLOODED AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO 
  TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE 
  HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO 
  SEWER BACKUPS.

$$
328 
WGUS81 KBUF 230402
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC029-037-063-121-231002-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131223T2308Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T2300Z.131223T1708Z.NO/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER AT BATAVIA HAS CRESTED AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL AND 
  COMMERCIAL FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO 
  AMHERST. CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 5 FROM THE 
  WEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA INTO THE TOWN OF BATAVIA AND EAST
  PEMBROKE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND FEEDER 
  STREAMS ALONG TONAWANDA CREEK ESPECIALLY NEAR IROQUOIS NATIONAL
  WILDLIFE REFUGE AND THE TONAWANDA INDIAN RESERVATION.

$$

NYC029-063-231002-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1030Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0220Z.131224T0600Z.131225T0430Z.NR/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.5 FEET
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC037-055-231002-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131224T1400Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T1200Z.131224T0800Z.UU/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.6 FEET 
  MONDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

NYC037-055-231002-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131224T0130Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1200Z.131223T1930Z.NO/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.5 FEET 
  MONDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MORE WIDESPREAD AGRICULTURAL 
  LAND FLOODING, SOME BACKYARD AND BASEMENT FLOODING CHURCHVILLE TO 
  CHILI BUT MINIMAL DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-231001-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1800Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0600Z.131224T1200Z.NO/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR ITS FORECAST CREST OF 10.6 FEET AND IS NOW
  FORECAST TO SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC029-037-231001-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T2046Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1446Z.NR/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED NEAR 9.7 FEET AND IS NOW FORECAST TO 
  STEADILY FALL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. UB BIKE PATH FLOODED AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO 
  TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE 
  HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO 
  SEWER BACKUPS.

$$
045 
WGUS81 KBUF 230925
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC037-055-231525-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131225T0000Z/
/GRBN6.2.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T1200Z.131224T1800Z.UU/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 4 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 7.1 FEET 
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS BELOW LEROY. SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  ALONG CREEK, ESPECIALLY IN MUMFORD, WHEATLAND, AND SCOTTSVILLE. 
  ROADWAY FLOODING BEGINS. SOME BACKWATER EFFECTS POSSIBLE FROM 
  GENESEE RIVER NEAR SCOTTSVILLE.

$$

NYC037-055-231525-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131224T0920Z/
/CHRN6.2.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1200Z.131224T0320Z.NR/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 4 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 7.7 FEET 
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH OF CREEK IN GENESEE AND MONROE COUNTIES. SERIOUS
  RESIDENTIAL FLOODING CHURCHVILLE, CHILI, TO THE VICINITY OF THE 
  ROCHESTER AIRPORT. SOME BACKWATER PROBLEMS FROM THE GENESEE RIVER 
  EAST OF CHILI.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-231524-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131224T0527Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T2300Z.131223T2327Z.NO/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 4 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
  DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL AND 
  COMMERCIAL FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO 
  AMHERST. CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 5 FROM THE 
  WEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA INTO THE TOWN OF BATAVIA AND EAST
  PEMBROKE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND FEEDER 
  STREAMS ALONG TONAWANDA CREEK ESPECIALLY NEAR IROQUOIS NATIONAL
  WILDLIFE REFUGE AND THE TONAWANDA INDIAN RESERVATION.

$$

NYC029-063-231524-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1530Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0220Z.131224T0600Z.131225T0930Z.NR/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 4 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.7 FEET
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC009-231524-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1403Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0130Z.131224T0803Z.NO/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 3 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC029-037-231524-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T2320Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0245Z.131223T1720Z.NR/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 4 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. UB BIKE PATH FLOODED AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO 
  TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE 
  HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO 
  SEWER BACKUPS.

$$

APFFEL
622 
WGUS81 KBUF 231510
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC037-055-232110-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131225T0000Z/
/GRBN6.2.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T1130Z.131224T1800Z.UU/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET AND CRESTING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS BELOW LEROY. SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  ALONG CREEK, ESPECIALLY IN MUMFORD, WHEATLAND, AND SCOTTSVILLE. 
  ROADWAY FLOODING BEGINS. SOME BACKWATER EFFECTS POSSIBLE FROM 
  GENESEE RIVER NEAR SCOTTSVILLE.

$$

NYC037-055-232110-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131224T1905Z/
/CHRN6.2.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1400Z.131224T1305Z.NR/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET AND CRESTING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH OF CREEK IN GENESEE AND MONROE COUNTIES. SERIOUS
  RESIDENTIAL FLOODING CHURCHVILLE, CHILI, TO THE VICINITY OF THE 
  ROCHESTER AIRPORT. SOME BACKWATER PROBLEMS FROM THE GENESEE RIVER 
  EAST OF CHILI.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-232110-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131224T0527Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T2300Z.131223T2327Z.NO/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
  DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE 
  REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN ALABAMA SWAMPS, 
  RAPIDS, AND NORTHERN CLARENCE AND AMHERST...AND ALSO IN CITY OF 
  BATAVIA WEST OF MAIN STREET.

$$

NYC029-063-232110-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1530Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0220Z.131224T0600Z.131225T0930Z.NR/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.7 FEET
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC009-232110-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1403Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0130Z.131224T0803Z.NO/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 10.1 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC029-037-232110-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T2328Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0245Z.131223T1728Z.NR/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NONFLOOD FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
  DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...SOME FLOODING BEGINS ALONG AERO
  DRIVE FROM HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA. ALSO SOME FLOODING 
  ALONG THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT AREA IN AMHERST SUCH AS THE BIKE 
  PATH AND GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING IN ELLICOTT CREEK PARK. LITTLE
  OR NO OVERALL DAMAGE.

$$
962 
WGUS81 KBUF 232035
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC037-055-240235-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131224T1715Z/
/CHRN6.2.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1900Z.131224T1115Z.NR/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH OF CREEK IN GENESEE AND MONROE COUNTIES. SERIOUS
  RESIDENTIAL FLOODING CHURCHVILLE, CHILI, TO THE VICINITY OF THE 
  ROCHESTER AIRPORT. SOME BACKWATER PROBLEMS FROM THE GENESEE RIVER 
  EAST OF CHILI.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-240235-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131224T0824Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T2300Z.131224T0224Z.NO/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 3 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
  DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE 
  REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN ALABAMA SWAMPS, 
  RAPIDS, AND NORTHERN CLARENCE AND AMHERST...AND ALSO IN CITY OF 
  BATAVIA WEST OF MAIN STREET.

$$

NYC029-063-240235-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1905Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0220Z.131224T0600Z.131225T1305Z.NR/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.8 FEET
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC037-055-240235-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131225T0000Z/
/GRBN6.2.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T1130Z.131224T1800Z.UU/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 3 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.9 FEET 
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS BELOW LEROY. SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  ALONG CREEK, ESPECIALLY IN MUMFORD, WHEATLAND, AND SCOTTSVILLE. 
  ROADWAY FLOODING BEGINS. SOME BACKWATER EFFECTS POSSIBLE FROM 
  GENESEE RIVER NEAR SCOTTSVILLE.

$$

NYC009-232105-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1403Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0130Z.131223T1415Z.NO/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN.
* AT 2 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING AND 
  WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 9.3 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC029-037-232105-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T2328Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0245Z.131223T1907Z.NR/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE.
* AT 3 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 4.5 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...SOME FLOODING BEGINS ALONG AERO
  DRIVE FROM HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA. ALSO SOME FLOODING 
  ALONG THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT AREA IN AMHERST SUCH AS THE BIKE 
  PATH AND GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING IN ELLICOTT CREEK PARK. LITTLE
  OR NO OVERALL DAMAGE.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 21, 9:53 AM EST, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 21, 9:53 AM EST, 1 hour 40 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
953 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
STREAM ALONG THE FRONT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RIVER FLOODING.
COLDER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
ICING TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...WITH LESS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT ICING EDGING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON
SUNDAY...WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE FRONT AND PROGRESSIVELY USHER IN
COLDER AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH THE
WORST OF IT TONIGHT WHEN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING RAIN
IS EXPECTED. THE MOST SEVERE ICING IS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WATERTOWN TO FORT DRUM AND HARRISVILLE...WHERE LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES LOCKED IN COMING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. LESS WIDESPREAD BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT ICING IS ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS. MEANWHILE...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A VERY SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION AT 1430Z...RUNNING FROM NEAR KBUF TO JUST SOUTH OF KROC TO
JUST SOUTH OF KART AND KGTB. TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S...AND WILL REMAIN THERE
TODAY. THE FRONT RECENTLY DROPPED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH INTO THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH ONE SPOTTER IN MONROE COUNTY REPORTING A 15
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THIS INITIAL BIG DROP
IN TEMPERATURE ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL GET TEMPS INTO THE MID
30S...WITH A VERY SLOW FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S EXPECTED AFTER THAT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TO INCREASE
ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS...AND MONROE COUNTIES AFTER 3-4PM.

TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER UP TO NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY PEAKING NOW...WITH A SLOW FALLING TREND THE
REST OF THE DAY.

PRECIP WISE...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS AFTERNOON...A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL NY WITH RAIN RATES
INCREASING.

THE REAL ACTION COMES TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FUNNEL A SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR
SOUTHWARD...AND PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS AND MOST SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT.
THIS SETS UP A NE FLOW...NORTH OF I-90 FROM THE NY/PA LINE TO
SYRACUSE. THE KEY DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RGEM/GFS SUGGEST A COLDER
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME ICING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHILE THE 06Z NAM AND 03Z SREF PRESENT A WARMER BUT CLOSE
TO FREEZING SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING
COLDER...AND NOW SHOWS SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE RGEM HAS VERIFIED MUCH BETTER THAN THE NAM
IN THIS EVENT SO FAR. GIVEN THIS...HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM
WATCH TO AN ICE STORM WARNING...GENERALLY FOCUSING NORTH OF I-90
FROM BUF-ROC. ALSO ISSUED ADVISORIES FOR ICE JUST SOUTH OF
THIS...SINCE SOME ICING IS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS. EXPECT
ICING TO VARY CONSIDERABLY...WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. SOME AREAS IN THE WARNING MAY NOT GET VERY MUCH
ICING...WHILE OTHERS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ICE ON TREES AND OTHER
VEGETATION. TERRAIN WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE...WITH ICING A BIT MORE
LIKELY ACROSS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN 10 TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF THE
LAKESHORE. THIS REMAINS A DIFFICULT FORECAST...GIVEN THAT ONLY A ONE
OR TWO DEGREE ERROR IN TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN HUGE DIFFERENCE
IN IMPACT. VARIABILITY ASIDE...ICE ON TREES CAN CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT IN TERMS OF DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES.

OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...
WHICH WILL BRING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT. GIVEN
THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMIC LIFT...MODEL QPF GUIDANCE IS RATHER CLOSELY
CLUSTERED WITH STORM TOTALS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 1.50 TO 2.50 INCH
RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL FALL TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN. RAIN COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS WHICH ARE DISCUSSED IN FURTHER
DETAIL IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN ONGOING FREEZING
RAIN/ICE STORM...WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHILE A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT AND FALLING RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE REALIZED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS
POSSIBLY OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS.

TO START SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND FROM THE BOSTON HILLS TO THE BRISTOL HILLS LIKELY STARTING THE
DAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY A MUCH
DIFFERENT STORY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. WILL BEGIN THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE...BUT
QUICKLY TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE ACROSS WNY...AND LATER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
TENTHS TO THE WEST AND UPWARDS TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION.

FOR THE ICE CONCERNS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...

A NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
POURING A SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF AIR ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. STILL FEEL THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT
CAPTURING THIS WELL...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDEST MODEL...THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN...WHICH ALSO HAS HAD A HISTORY OF DOING WELL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CENTER THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR FROM ROUGHLY MONROE COUNTY WESTWARD ACROSS
ORLEANS AND NIAGARA COUNTY...AND INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE AND
GENESEE COUNTIES. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ICING WILL CONTINUE FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMER AIR SURGES
NORTHWARD...COMBINED WITH WARMER AIR (+10C/925 HPA) BROUGHT DOWN
WITH THE FALLING RAIN. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE SCOURED OUT LATEST
FROM THE NIAGARA ESCARPMENT NORTHWARD...WITH THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT LASTING THE LONGEST HERE. THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN AS FAR INLAND AS NORTHERN WYOMING...LIVINGSTON AND
WAYNE AND ONTARIO COUNTIES.

FOR THE ICE CONCERNS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

A SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH A COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA POURING A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SUB FREEZING AIR
WILL LIKELY BE LOCKED INTO THE VALLEY...WITH THE COLD LAYER ONLY
BEING ERODED FROM TOP TO BOTTOM THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
SURFACES BELOW FREEZING ALLOWING FOR FREEZING RAIN TO LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...AND EVEN POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF QPF SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE UPWARDS TO AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICING...ON TOP
OF THE ICE ALREADY FORMING FROM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
COULD BRING TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES
WHICH WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. THE COLDER AIR WITHIN THE
VALLEY WILL MAKE FOR A MORE EFFICIENT ICE ACCUMULATION PROCESS.

THE OTHER MAJOR CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE RISING CREEK AND RIVER
LEVELS. THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS OF THE
GEFS/NAEFS AND SREF ALL HIGHLIGHT THE RIVERS AND CREEKS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SOME OF THE FASTER RISERS PEAKING THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. WILL DISCUSS THIS POTENTIAL MORE IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA ONLY COOL DOWN TOWARDS AROUND
-4 TO -6C BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...STILL TOO WARM TO START TO
GENERATE LAKE SNOWS. WE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN CLOUDY...AND
BRISK AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS
AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY/FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A
FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG WITH A
BRISK WIND...BUT THE TRUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BUILDS IN THE DEEPENING COLD
AIR AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES TUESDAY AND INTO PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
REGION. COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
SURFACE HIGHS ONLY INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE VERY COLD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY...BEFORE
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR BRINGS A CHANCE FOR MORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE DETERIORATING TO IFR AS A SLUG
OF RAINFALL IS CROSSING THE REGION. THIS RAINFALL IS FOUND ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE AT ANY GIVEN SPOT DEPENDING UPON
THE  LOCATION RELATIVE TO THIS BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE...WITH FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
EXTENDING FROM AROUND OR JUST NORTH OF KART NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND LOWER GENESEE VALLEY
INCLUDING THE KIAG/KBUF AND KROC AIRFIELDS. PLAIN RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE KJHW TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2-3 KFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF
CYCLE. THEN AGAIN THIS JET WILL LOWER AND BRING SOME LLWS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH FZRA VCNTY KART. SOME
FZRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/LOCALIZED
IFR/MVFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SE OF
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY ON LAKE ERIE AND
NORTHEASTERLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD A
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING NE FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD...ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. WILL HOIST THE SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS IN THE NE FLOW...AND HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR LAKE ERIE IN THE SW FLOW LATE SUNDAY. AFTER THIS...A
FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH MID-WEEK IN A GENERALLY
NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE REGION WILL LIKELY GET BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...DIVIDING COOL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH
WARMER AND MOIST AIR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...THE DEEP SNOWPACK WILL TEND TO ABSORB AT LEAST SOME
OF THE RAINFALL AND KEEP RUNOFF MANAGEABLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL INCREASE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

UTILIZING MMEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS. THE 03Z SREF IS
PARTICULARLY OMINOUS...SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST MODERATE FLOODING IN SOME BUFFALO CREEK BASINS. WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE HEADWATERS FOR BUFFALO/CAZENOVIA/CAYUGA/CATTARAUGUS
CREEKS GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES. BECAUSE THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF FORECAST...AND THAT THESE BASINS
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...HAVE ISSUED FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE BASINS. EXPECT AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING ON THESE
CREEKS...WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IF QPF EXCEEDS
FORECAST VALUES EVEN SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THESE BASINS HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL YEARS.

THE RISK IS SLIGHTLY LESS FOR THE GENESEE AND ALLEGHENY
BASINS...BUT THERE STILL IS A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FOR
THESE BASINS AS WELL. IN GENERAL...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS A BIT
LESS FOR THESE BASINS...AND QPF DROPS OFF TO THE SOUTH. THEN NORTH
ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER...WITH SOME PRECIPITATION EVEN FORECAST TO
FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THESE FACTORS WOULD SLOW RUN OFF...EVEN
SO...MMEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL ADDITIONAL FORECAST POINTS IN
THESE BASINS MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.

THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIPITATION MOSTLY FROZEN FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
STILL LIKELY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND...WITH SWE 3 TO 5 INCHES ON THE TUG HILL. IT WOULD
ONLY TAKE A SMALL SHIFT IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT FOR THE BLACK
RIVER BASIN TO FLOOD.

IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WILL BRING A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS AND IN LOW-
LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. ALSO...GAGES SUGGEST THAT ICE IS
BREAKING UP ON SOME CREEKS...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN MINOR ICE JAM
ISSUES UNTIL HIGHER FLOWS WASH OUT THE ICE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD BEGIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING. THE RISK WOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
VARIOUS BASINS RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. ISSUES COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY FOR SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ004-012>014.
     ICE STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 21, 3:44 AM EST, 7 hours 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

NYZ007-008-220845-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST SUNDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   ICE STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   ICE STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005-006-019>021-085-220845-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-012>014-220845-
WAYNE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-010-011-220845-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   ICE STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   ICE STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-220845-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

THOMAS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 21, 9:17 AM EST, 2 hours 16 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
917 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

NYZ007-211630-
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
917 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WATERTOWN TO
FORT DRUM. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 11 AM. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE
ON TREES...POWERLINES...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THIS WILL BRING TREE
BRANCHES DOWN AND RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. IN ADDITION...SLICK
ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN
AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. BE AWARE OF SLICK
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.
Special weather statement, Dec 21, 10:50 AM EST, 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1050 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

NYZ007-211815-
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
1050 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

FREEZING RAIN HAS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER WILL INTENSIFY AGAIN
THROUGH THE NOON OUR...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WATERTOWN TO FORT DRUM. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 PM. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCUMULATE ON TREES...POWERLINES...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THIS WILL
BRING TREE BRANCHES DOWN AND RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. IN
ADDITION...SLICK ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION. BE AWARE OF SLICK ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.
Local storm report, Dec 21, 11:11 AM EST, 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1111 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 AM     ICE ACCUMULATION 3 S THERESA             44.17N  75.80W
12/21/2013                   JEFFERSON          NY   COCORAHS

            0.25 INCHES OF ICE ON SURFACES

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300395

DK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 21, 3:30 AM ESTFreezing Rain AdvisoryBUFCayuga, Livingston, Ontario, Oswego, Wayne, Wyoming30 hr
Dec 21, 3:39 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF44 hr
Dec 21, 11:10 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Niagara and 2 more28 hr
Dec 21, 11:33 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFCattaraugus32 hr
Dec 21, 11:33 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFAllegany, Livingston, Wyoming25 hr
Dec 21, 11:33 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFGenesee, Monroe17 hr
Dec 21, 11:33 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFCattaraugus52 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in New York, 2013Every river flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.