Small Craft Advisory 124, NWS Buffalo, NY

440 
WHUS71 KBUF 211434
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
934 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

LOZ042>044-212245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.131222T0100Z-131222T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
934 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-212245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.131222T0300Z-131222T1800Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
934 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

589 
WHUS71 KBUF 212035
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

LEZ040-220445-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.131222T0300Z-131222T1100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
335 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-042>044-220445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.131222T0300Z-131222T2300Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
335 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

376 
WHUS71 KBUF 212356
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
656 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

LOZ045-220800-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.131222T0000Z-131222T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
656 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-220800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.131222T0000Z-131222T1100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
656 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-042>044-220800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.131222T0000Z-131222T2300Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
656 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR

297 
WHUS71 KBUF 220247
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

LEZ040-221100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T1100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
947 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-042>044-221100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T2300Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
947 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-221100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
947 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR

004 
WHUS71 KBUF 220838
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
338 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

SLZ022-024-221645-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T1800Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
338 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ041-221645-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.131222T1600Z-131223T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
338 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-221645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
338 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-042>044-221645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T2300Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
338 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-221500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
338 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

063 
WHUS71 KBUF 221549
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1049 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

LEZ040-230000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
1049 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-042>044-222300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T2300Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1049 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ041-230000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.131222T1600Z-131223T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1049 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-221800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T1800Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1049 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

111 
WHUS71 KBUF 221733
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1233 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

SLZ022-024-222100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T2100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1233 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-230145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
1233 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-042>044-222300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T2300Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1233 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ041-230145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1233 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

410 
WHUS71 KBUF 222054
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

LOZ030-042>044-222200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T2300Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
354 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

SLZ022-024-222200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131222T2100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
354 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

LEZ040-230500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
354 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ041-230500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
354 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH

552 
WHUS71 KBUF 230230
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
930 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

LEZ040-230600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
930 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ041-230600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
930 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR

294 
WHUS71 KBUF 230443
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

LEZ040-041-230545-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1143 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...THEREFORE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1136 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF
RAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RIVER FLOODING. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND MAY ALSO POSSIBLY
EDGE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0430Z REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED
FROM FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHWEST OHIO...WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...REGIONAL RADARS
SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THE
BULK OF THIS IS FALLING AS LIGHT RAIN GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE A MIX OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THE SURFACE WAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS
FEATURE REACHING A POSITION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NIAGARA PENINSULA
AND THE ROCHESTER AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS
FURTHER NORTHEAST...IT WILL ALSO PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO FALL MOSTLY AS PLAIN RAIN THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...WITH ANY FREEZING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY LIKELY ALSO
SHRINKING UP AND RECEDING CLOSER TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVER
TIME. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ITSELF...STEADY
WARMING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANY REMAINING SNOW/SLEET CHANGING OVER
TO ALL FREEZING PRECIP WITH TIME.

GIVEN THE BREAKS NOTED ON UPSTREAM RADARS...HAVE INDICATED THAT THE
PRECIP WILL BE MORE OCCASIONAL IN NATURE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...
WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE (ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY) AND FOG ALSO PRESENT GIVEN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES TO RANGE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE
TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY SAG A LITTLE
SOUTH LATER SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES PAST THE REGION.  THIS
WOULD DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
ABOUT MONROE COUNTY WITH LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY SUCH AS THE NIAGARA
ESCARPMENT HAVING SOME EFFECT ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
SUB-FREEZING AIR.  THE CURRENT 00Z SSEO SHOWS SOME MEMBERS WITH
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE SPECIAL 1.3 NAM FIRE WX NEST
SUPPORTING THE OWLES PROJECT KEEPS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BRINGS
FREEZING RAIN IN TOWARD THE EVENING.  09Z SREF HAS ABOUT HALF ITS
MEMBERS SPORTING FREEZING RAIN LATE SATURDAY AS WELL...JUST BEFORE
THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR
TIMING AND LOCATION.

OVERALL...AFTER GENERALLY LIGHT QPF TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
CONSEQUENTLY STRENGTHENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT
ICING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR
THE NY/PA BORDER. ALOFT...A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BE HEADING NORTH TOWARD NEW YORK STATE...WHILE A POWERFUL UPPER
LEVEL JET TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE LIFT...COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF VERY
DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS FORECAST TO RISE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES) WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BASIN AVERAGE QPF SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.0
TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AN ARC
STRETCHING FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN
BY ITSELF WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. AT THE SAME
TIME...RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS
WILL RAPIDLY MELT AN ALREADY RIPE SNOWPACK. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR GENERAL FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. IN FACT...THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE
RIVERS IN THE BUFFALO RIVER BASIN COULD REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE
SUNDAY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WHERE A PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A SHALLOW LAYER OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
JEFFERSON COUNTY INTO THE NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. BASED ON THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...SIGNIFICANT ICING OF GREATER THAN A
HALF INCH IS LIKELY. IF THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS VERIFY...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERELY DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF WELL
OVER AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND FAR NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...THE ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO BE WITHOUT POWER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE INTO PARTS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE COLDER GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS CERTAINLY HINTS AT THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE LATEST
NAM GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE A BIT WARMER. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST
MAINTAIN A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS BECAUSE OF THE
CERTAINTY REGARDING HOW COLD THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GET. THIS
WILL BE AN EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT FORECAST...WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES
DIFFERENCE IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN JUST
PLAIN RAIN AND AN ICE STORM. IF TEMPERATURES HOVER RIGHT NEAR 32F...
THERE WILL BE INEFFICIENT CONVERSION OF FREEZING RAIN INTO ICE
ACCRETION...WHICH COULD KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT A LITTLE TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE STEADY PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. FOLLOWING GFS GUIDANCE...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
CWA... WHERE AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S...WHILE PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY STAY IN THE 30S. THIS TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE COULD STILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT
IN FROM THE WEST AND CHANGE ANY REMAINING PCPN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS.
EVEN COLDER AIR WILL DEEPEN ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES TUESDAY INTO PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY...BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLDER AIR BRINGS A CHANCE FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE AT ANY GIVEN SPOT DEPENDING UPON THE
LOCATION RELATIVE TO THIS BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CIGS TO PREDOMINATE...WITH FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE EXTENDING
FROM AROUND OR JUST NORTH OF KART NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGIONS...WITH PLAIN RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED OTHERWISE.

IN ADDITION...A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2-3 KFT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO SITES SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY TO MID SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE WIND SHEAR
STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH FZRA VCNTY KART. SOME
FZRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/LOCALIZED
IFR/MVFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SE OF
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY ON LAKE ERIE AND
NORTHEASTERLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER SOUTHWARD
A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BEFORE SLIPPING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ONE
FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS APPEARS AS IF IT WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN A STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE REGION WILL LIKELY GET BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...DIVIDING COOL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH
WARMER AND MOIST AIR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...THE DEEP SNOWPACK WILL TEND TO ABSORB AT LEAST SOME
OF THE RAINFALL AND KEEP RUNOFF MANAGEABLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 40S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING AN EVEN GREATER RISK OF FLOODING.

UTILIZING MMEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR NAEFS/GEFS/SREF
GUIDANCE...THE GREATEST RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING IS FOR
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND ALLEGHENY BASIN. THESE BASINS HAVE THE
GREATEST SNOWPACK AND ARE MOST LIKELY TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE RISK IS SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE GENESEE BASIN AND
BLACK RIVER BASIN...HOWEVER IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL SHIFT IN
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT FOR THE GREATEST RISK TO SHIFT TO THESE
BASINS.

THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE IF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OCCUR ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. IF THIS OCCURS...FLOODING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FORECAST POINTS TO REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.

IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WILL BRING A RISK FOR MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS...SINCE RECENT SNOWFALL MAY BLOCK STORM
DRAINS IN SOME URBAN AREAS. MANY CREEKS ALREADY HAVE SOME ICE ON
THEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR ICE JAMS FOLLOWING THE INITIAL
BREAK UP.

IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD BEGIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RISK WOULD LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY AS VARIOUS BASINS RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT.
ISSUES COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY FOR SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...JJR/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...JJR/ZAFF
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/HITCHCOCK/APFFEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

NYZ007-008-212100-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
354 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST SUNDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   ICE STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   ICE STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004>006-012>014-019>021-085-212100-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
354 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-010-011-212100-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
354 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-212100-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
354 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF