Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Buffalo, NY

078 
WGUS81 KBUF 211918
FLSBUF

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
218 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

NYC003-009-013-029-037-063-073-121-220200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131222T0200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGANY NY-CATTARAUGUS NY-GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-
NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-ERIE NY-
218 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST FOR SMALL
STREAMS IN ERIE...ORLEANS...NIAGARA...CHAUTAUQUA...WYOMING...
GENESEE...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

AT 213 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW 
YORK. THE RAIN MAY TAPER OFF TO MORE INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN FOR A 
FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE 
TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND RAPID SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE HIGH WATER AND FLOODING ON MANY SMALL CREEKS. LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT REPORTS A NUMBER OF FLOODED ROADS AND ROAD CLOSURES... 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF 
BUFFALO WHERE THE LARGEST SNOWMELT HAS OCCURRED. 

A HEAVIER ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL AND 
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. 
ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7977 4227 7977 4250 7936 4256 7916
      4269 7907 4279 7886 4294 7892 4300 7903
      4306 7901 4308 7908 4327 7907 4338 7854
      4338 7800 4277 7800 4251 7811 4246 7775
      4200 7776

$$

HITCHCOCK

245 
WGUS81 KBUF 212210
FLSBUF

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
510 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

NYC003-009-013-029-037-063-073-121-220200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131222T0200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGANY NY-CATTARAUGUS NY-GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-
NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-ERIE NY-
510 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST FOR SMALL
STREAMS IN ERIE...ORLEANS...NIAGARA...CHAUTAUQUA...WYOMING...
GENESEE...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A 25 MILE WIDE 
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL LIFT ACROSS 
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 5:30 AND 6:30 PM EDT...THEN THE 
NIAGARA FRONTIER BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM EDT. 

WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAIN...THE 
CONCERNING MAIN SLUG OF RAIN IS STILL OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. 
THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS NOT EXPECTED TO 
REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

WHILE A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE SNOWPACK HAS BEEN MELTED AWAY OR 
WASHED INTO TRIBUTARIES THAT ARE NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFUL...THE 
EXPECTED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THE UPCOMING OVERNIGHT WILL 
GREATLY EXACERBATE THE FLOODING CONCERNS. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 
ALREADY REPORTS A NUMBER OF FLOODED ROADS AND ROAD CLOSURES... 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF 
BUFFALO WHERE THE LARGEST SNOWMELT HAS OCCURRED. 

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE 
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7977 4227 7977 4250 7936 4256 7916
      4269 7907 4279 7886 4294 7892 4300 7903
      4306 7901 4308 7908 4327 7907 4338 7854
      4338 7800 4277 7800 4251 7811 4246 7775
      4200 7776

$$

RSH

771 
WGUS41 KBUF 220039
FLWBUF

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

NYC003-009-013-029-037-063-073-121-221400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131222T1400Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGANY NY-CATTARAUGUS NY-GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-
NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-ERIE NY-
739 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WELLSVILLE...
  CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SALAMANCA...OLEAN...
  CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DUNKIRK...JAMESTOWN...FREDONIA...
  ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AMHERST...WILLIAMSVILLE...WEST
  SENECA...TONAWANDA...LANCASTER...LACKAWANNA...KENMORE...HAMBURG...
  EAST AURORA...DEPEW...CHEEKTOWAGA...BUFFALO...
  GENESEE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BATAVIA...
  NIAGARA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NORTH TONAWANDA...NIAGARA FALLS...
  LOCKPORT...
  ORLEANS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...ALBION...
  WYOMING COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 900 AM EST SUNDAY

* AT 730 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN 
NEW YORK. THIS RAIN WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS AS A SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 8 AM 
SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIER TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.

WHILE A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE SNOWPACK HAS BEEN MELTED AWAY OR 
WASHED INTO TRIBUTARIES THAT ARE NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFUL...THE 
EXPECTED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL GREATLY 
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING CONCERNS. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ALREADY 
REPORTS A NUMBER OF FLOODED ROADS AND ROAD CLOSURES... ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF BUFFALO WHERE 
THE LARGEST SNOWMELT HAS OCCURRED. 

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE GREATLY ELEVATED 
LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN 
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND 
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7977 4227 7977 4250 7936 4256 7916
      4269 7907 4279 7886 4294 7892 4300 7903
      4306 7901 4308 7908 4327 7907 4338 7854
      4338 7800 4277 7800 4251 7811 4246 7775
      4200 7776

$$

RSH

573 
WGUS81 KBUF 220414
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
  CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
  CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC009-013-029-121-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131223T0448Z/
/GOWN6.2.ER.131221T2217Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2248Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 12.1 FEET
  SUNDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...CREEK OVERFLOWS LEFT BANK 
  0.5 TO 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FROM GOWANDA...SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD. CONTINUED FLOODING ON RIGHT BANK. FLOODING ALSO 
  POSSIBLE IN ARCADE, AT SUNSET BAY ON LAKE ERIE, AND ALONG THATCHER 
  BROOK IN GOWANDA.

$$

NYC029-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131223T0220Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.131221T1834Z.131222T0600Z.131222T2020Z.UU/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR EBENEZER
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 13.1 FEET
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS 
  POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHGATE PLAZA IN WEST SENECA. 
  CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN THE CAZENOVIA PARK AREA OF SOUTH 
  BUFFALO AND WEST SENECA.

$$

NYC029-121-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-131222T2110Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.131221T2145Z.131222T0600Z.131222T1510Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 8.1 FEET 
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG LOW
  LYING AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO CREEK...ESPECIALLY NEAR COLLINS 
  AVENUE, ELMA TOWN PARK, AND IN SOME SECTIONS OF ELMA VILLAGE NORTH 
  OF THE BOWEN ROAD BRIDGE.

$$

NYC029-121-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-131223T0438Z/
/LCSN6.2.ER.131221T2205Z.131222T1200Z.131222T2238Z.UU/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT 
  AND CREST NEAR 10.1 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING OF BACKYARDS, 
  BASEMENTS AND STREETS IN VILLAGE OF LANCASTER. SOME FLOODING OF LOW
  LYING AREAS IN ALDEN, MARILLA, AND CHEEKTOWAGA...ESPECIALLY NEAR 
  BOWEN ROAD AND TRANSIT ROAD. SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE NEAR UNION ROAD
  TOO.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.131222T1113Z-131223T2116Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T1113Z.131223T0000Z.131223T1516Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 11.2 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING OCCURS ALONG THE
  ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN THE 
  ALABAMA SWAMPS...AND PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA.

$$

NYC029-063-221014-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0006.131223T1242Z-000000T0000Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T1242Z.131224T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CREST NEAR 15.2 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...THERE ARE MANY ROAD CLOSURES
  FROM NORTH CLARENCE EAST INTO NEWSTEAD AND ROYALTON INCLUDING
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD AND RAPIDS ROAD. BACKWATER FLOODING BEGINS 
  INTO NORTH AMHERST ON SMALLER CREEKS SUCH AS RANSOM...BLACK...
  BEEMAN...AND MUD CREEKS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF FARMLAND.

$$

NYC003-051-121-221013-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0007.131222T1118Z-131223T0312Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.131222T1118Z.131222T1800Z.131222T2112Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 19.8 FEET EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE.

$$

NYC037-055-221013-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0008.131222T1648Z-131224T0900Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131222T1648Z.131223T0600Z.131224T0300Z.UU/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  SUNDAY MORNING AND CREST NEAR 6.5 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

NYC009-221013-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0009.131222T1014Z-131225T0448Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1014Z.131223T0000Z.131224T2248Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  SUNDAY MORNING AND CREST NEAR 11.9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD...WATER OVERFLOWS ONTO EAST 
  RIVERSIDE DRIVE 1 TO 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM UNION STREET BRIDGE.

$$

NYC009-221013-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0010.131222T2136Z-131223T1330Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.131222T2136Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0730Z.NO/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY 
  AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 12.2 FEET SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE 
  REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-221013-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0011.131222T0703Z-131223T1948Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0703Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1348Z.NR/
1114 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  TONIGHT AND CREST NEAR 9.4 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. AMHERST BIKE PATH NEAR UNIVERSITY OF BUFFALO FLOODED 
  AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. 
  FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST 
  FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO SEWER BACKUPS.

$$

216 
WGUS81 KBUF 220828
FLSBUF

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

NYC003-009-013-029-037-063-073-121-221400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131222T1400Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGANY NY-CATTARAUGUS NY-GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-
NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-ERIE NY-
328 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EST FOR SMALL
STREAMS IN ERIE...ORLEANS...NIAGARA...CHAUTAUQUA...WYOMING...
GENESEE...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWMELT HAS BROUGHT FLOODING TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW 
YORK...RESULTING IN MULTIPLE ISSUES. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS 
NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS 
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON MANY ROADS. 

IN ADDITION...MANY SMALL STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH 
DAYBREAK AS THEY RESPOND TO HEAVY RAINS WHICH FELL DURING THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS. FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ON NUMEROUS AREA CREEKS. 
IN WARSAW...OATKA CREEK WILL REMAIN STEADY...CONTINUING FLOODING ON 
SOME ROADS AND ADJACENT FIELDS. TONAWANDA CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO 
RISE IN ATTICA...AND WILL LIKELY START TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF 
PROSPECT STREET BEFORE IS CRESTS LATER THIS MORNING. THERE ALSO 
NUMEROUS CREEKS CAUSING FLOODING IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 
PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.

AT 320 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL 
BRING AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN BEFORE HEAVY RAINS 
TAPER OFF AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT FLOODING TO CONTINUE OR WORSEN 
DURING THIS TIME...WITH ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
TODAY AS FLOOD WATERS START TO GRADUALLY RECEDE.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7977 4227 7977 4250 7936 4256 7916
      4269 7907 4279 7886 4294 7892 4300 7903
      4306 7901 4308 7908 4327 7907 4338 7854
      4338 7800 4277 7800 4251 7811 4246 7775
      4200 7776

$$

APFFEL

607 
WGUS41 KBUF 221224
FLWBUF

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
724 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

NYC003-009-013-029-037-063-073-121-222000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131222T2000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGANY NY-CATTARAUGUS NY-GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-
NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-ERIE NY-
724 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
  ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WELLSVILLE...
  CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SALAMANCA...OLEAN...
  CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DUNKIRK...JAMESTOWN...FREDONIA...
  ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AMHERST...WILLIAMSVILLE...WEST
  SENECA...TONAWANDA...LANCASTER...LACKAWANNA...KENMORE...HAMBURG...
  EAST AURORA...DEPEW...CHEEKTOWAGA...BUFFALO...
  GENESEE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BATAVIA...
  NIAGARA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NORTH TONAWANDA...NIAGARA FALLS...
  LOCKPORT...
  ORLEANS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...ALBION...
  WYOMING COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 300 PM EST SUNDAY

* HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO MUCH  
  OF WESTERN NEW YORK...RESULTING IN MULTIPLE ISSUES. LOCAL LAW      
  ENFORCEMENT REPORTS NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO                 
  FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA WHERE SOME OF THE  
  HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN. WITH DEEP FLOOD WATERS ON SOME         
  ROADWAYS...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS TO RECEDE.

* IN ADDITION...MANY SMALL STREAMS ARE STILL NEAR CREST STAGE AS     
  THEY RESPOND TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH FELL DURING THE EARLY MORNING 
  HOURS. FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ON NUMEROUS AREA CREEKS.         
  TONAWANDA CREEK WILL SLOWLY RISE IN ATTICA...AND MAY IMPACT ON     
  PORTIONS OF PROSPECT STREET BEFORE IS CRESTS LATER THIS MORNING.   
  THERE ARE ALSO NUMEROUS CREEKS CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7977 4227 7977 4250 7936 4256 7916
      4269 7907 4279 7886 4294 7892 4300 7903
      4306 7901 4308 7908 4327 7907 4338 7854
      4338 7800 4277 7800 4251 7811 4246 7775
      4200 7776

$$

APFFEL

700 
WGUS81 KBUF 221517
FLSBUF

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1017 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

NYC003-009-013-029-037-063-073-121-222000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131222T2000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGANY NY-CATTARAUGUS NY-GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-
NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-ERIE NY-
1017 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EST FOR URBAN
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN ERIE...ORLEANS...NIAGARA...CHAUTAUQUA...
WYOMING...GENESEE...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

AT 1015 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT 
RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF TO INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH RAIN 
HAS ENDED...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONTINUES IN URBAN AREAS AND NEAR 
SMALL STREAMS WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF ROAD CLOSURES STILL IN EFFECT. 
THIS INCLUDES MANY ROADS IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA.

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DRAINS OFF. WATER LEVELS IN SMALL CREEKS AND POOR 
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL DIMINISH.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7977 4227 7977 4250 7936 4256 7916
      4269 7907 4279 7886 4294 7892 4300 7903
      4306 7901 4308 7908 4327 7907 4338 7854
      4338 7800 4277 7800 4251 7811 4246 7775
      4200 7776

$$

HITCHCOCK

856 
WGUS81 KBUF 222003
FLSBUF

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
303 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

NYC003-009-013-029-037-063-073-121-222011-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131222T2000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGANY NY-CATTARAUGUS NY-GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-
NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-ERIE NY-
303 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN
ERIE...ORLEANS...NIAGARA...CHAUTAUQUA...WYOMING...GENESEE...
CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

HIGH WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO 
RECEDE EXCEPT FOR AREAS WHERE SEPARATE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN 
EFFECT.

EXTENSIVE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG TONAWANDA CREEK AND THE 
FEEDER STREAMS WHICH FLOW INTO IT. FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES ALONG 
ELLICOTT CREEK AND THE ALLEGHENY RIVER. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD 
WARNINGS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LAT...LON 4200 7977 4227 7977 4250 7936 4256 7916
      4269 7907 4279 7886 4294 7892 4300 7903
      4306 7901 4308 7908 4327 7907 4338 7854
      4338 7800 4277 7800 4251 7811 4246 7775
      4200 7776

$$

HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
953 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
STREAM ALONG THE FRONT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RIVER FLOODING.
COLDER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
ICING TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...WITH LESS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT ICING EDGING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON
SUNDAY...WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE FRONT AND PROGRESSIVELY USHER IN
COLDER AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH THE
WORST OF IT TONIGHT WHEN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING RAIN
IS EXPECTED. THE MOST SEVERE ICING IS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WATERTOWN TO FORT DRUM AND HARRISVILLE...WHERE LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES LOCKED IN COMING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. LESS WIDESPREAD BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT ICING IS ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS. MEANWHILE...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A VERY SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION AT 1430Z...RUNNING FROM NEAR KBUF TO JUST SOUTH OF KROC TO
JUST SOUTH OF KART AND KGTB. TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S...AND WILL REMAIN THERE
TODAY. THE FRONT RECENTLY DROPPED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH INTO THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH ONE SPOTTER IN MONROE COUNTY REPORTING A 15
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THIS INITIAL BIG DROP
IN TEMPERATURE ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL GET TEMPS INTO THE MID
30S...WITH A VERY SLOW FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S EXPECTED AFTER THAT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TO INCREASE
ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS...AND MONROE COUNTIES AFTER 3-4PM.

TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER UP TO NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY PEAKING NOW...WITH A SLOW FALLING TREND THE
REST OF THE DAY.

PRECIP WISE...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS AFTERNOON...A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL NY WITH RAIN RATES
INCREASING.

THE REAL ACTION COMES TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FUNNEL A SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR
SOUTHWARD...AND PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS AND MOST SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT.
THIS SETS UP A NE FLOW...NORTH OF I-90 FROM THE NY/PA LINE TO
SYRACUSE. THE KEY DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RGEM/GFS SUGGEST A COLDER
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME ICING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHILE THE 06Z NAM AND 03Z SREF PRESENT A WARMER BUT CLOSE
TO FREEZING SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING
COLDER...AND NOW SHOWS SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE RGEM HAS VERIFIED MUCH BETTER THAN THE NAM
IN THIS EVENT SO FAR. GIVEN THIS...HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM
WATCH TO AN ICE STORM WARNING...GENERALLY FOCUSING NORTH OF I-90
FROM BUF-ROC. ALSO ISSUED ADVISORIES FOR ICE JUST SOUTH OF
THIS...SINCE SOME ICING IS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS. EXPECT
ICING TO VARY CONSIDERABLY...WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. SOME AREAS IN THE WARNING MAY NOT GET VERY MUCH
ICING...WHILE OTHERS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ICE ON TREES AND OTHER
VEGETATION. TERRAIN WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE...WITH ICING A BIT MORE
LIKELY ACROSS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN 10 TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF THE
LAKESHORE. THIS REMAINS A DIFFICULT FORECAST...GIVEN THAT ONLY A ONE
OR TWO DEGREE ERROR IN TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN HUGE DIFFERENCE
IN IMPACT. VARIABILITY ASIDE...ICE ON TREES CAN CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT IN TERMS OF DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES.

OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...
WHICH WILL BRING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT. GIVEN
THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMIC LIFT...MODEL QPF GUIDANCE IS RATHER CLOSELY
CLUSTERED WITH STORM TOTALS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 1.50 TO 2.50 INCH
RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL FALL TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN. RAIN COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS WHICH ARE DISCUSSED IN FURTHER
DETAIL IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN ONGOING FREEZING
RAIN/ICE STORM...WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHILE A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT AND FALLING RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE REALIZED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS
POSSIBLY OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS.

TO START SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND FROM THE BOSTON HILLS TO THE BRISTOL HILLS LIKELY STARTING THE
DAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY A MUCH
DIFFERENT STORY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. WILL BEGIN THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE...BUT
QUICKLY TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE ACROSS WNY...AND LATER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
TENTHS TO THE WEST AND UPWARDS TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION.

FOR THE ICE CONCERNS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...

A NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
POURING A SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF AIR ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. STILL FEEL THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT
CAPTURING THIS WELL...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDEST MODEL...THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN...WHICH ALSO HAS HAD A HISTORY OF DOING WELL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CENTER THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR FROM ROUGHLY MONROE COUNTY WESTWARD ACROSS
ORLEANS AND NIAGARA COUNTY...AND INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE AND
GENESEE COUNTIES. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ICING WILL CONTINUE FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMER AIR SURGES
NORTHWARD...COMBINED WITH WARMER AIR (+10C/925 HPA) BROUGHT DOWN
WITH THE FALLING RAIN. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE SCOURED OUT LATEST
FROM THE NIAGARA ESCARPMENT NORTHWARD...WITH THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT LASTING THE LONGEST HERE. THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN AS FAR INLAND AS NORTHERN WYOMING...LIVINGSTON AND
WAYNE AND ONTARIO COUNTIES.

FOR THE ICE CONCERNS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

A SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH A COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA POURING A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SUB FREEZING AIR
WILL LIKELY BE LOCKED INTO THE VALLEY...WITH THE COLD LAYER ONLY
BEING ERODED FROM TOP TO BOTTOM THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
SURFACES BELOW FREEZING ALLOWING FOR FREEZING RAIN TO LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...AND EVEN POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF QPF SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE UPWARDS TO AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICING...ON TOP
OF THE ICE ALREADY FORMING FROM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
COULD BRING TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES
WHICH WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. THE COLDER AIR WITHIN THE
VALLEY WILL MAKE FOR A MORE EFFICIENT ICE ACCUMULATION PROCESS.

THE OTHER MAJOR CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE RISING CREEK AND RIVER
LEVELS. THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS OF THE
GEFS/NAEFS AND SREF ALL HIGHLIGHT THE RIVERS AND CREEKS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SOME OF THE FASTER RISERS PEAKING THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. WILL DISCUSS THIS POTENTIAL MORE IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA ONLY COOL DOWN TOWARDS AROUND
-4 TO -6C BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...STILL TOO WARM TO START TO
GENERATE LAKE SNOWS. WE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN CLOUDY...AND
BRISK AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS
AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY/FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A
FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG WITH A
BRISK WIND...BUT THE TRUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BUILDS IN THE DEEPENING COLD
AIR AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES TUESDAY AND INTO PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
REGION. COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
SURFACE HIGHS ONLY INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE VERY COLD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY...BEFORE
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR BRINGS A CHANCE FOR MORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE DETERIORATING TO IFR AS A SLUG
OF RAINFALL IS CROSSING THE REGION. THIS RAINFALL IS FOUND ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE AT ANY GIVEN SPOT DEPENDING UPON
THE  LOCATION RELATIVE TO THIS BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE...WITH FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
EXTENDING FROM AROUND OR JUST NORTH OF KART NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND LOWER GENESEE VALLEY
INCLUDING THE KIAG/KBUF AND KROC AIRFIELDS. PLAIN RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE KJHW TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2-3 KFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF
CYCLE. THEN AGAIN THIS JET WILL LOWER AND BRING SOME LLWS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH FZRA VCNTY KART. SOME
FZRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/LOCALIZED
IFR/MVFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SE OF
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY ON LAKE ERIE AND
NORTHEASTERLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD A
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING NE FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD...ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. WILL HOIST THE SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS IN THE NE FLOW...AND HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR LAKE ERIE IN THE SW FLOW LATE SUNDAY. AFTER THIS...A
FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH MID-WEEK IN A GENERALLY
NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE REGION WILL LIKELY GET BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...DIVIDING COOL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH
WARMER AND MOIST AIR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...THE DEEP SNOWPACK WILL TEND TO ABSORB AT LEAST SOME
OF THE RAINFALL AND KEEP RUNOFF MANAGEABLE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL INCREASE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

UTILIZING MMEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS. THE 03Z SREF IS
PARTICULARLY OMINOUS...SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST MODERATE FLOODING IN SOME BUFFALO CREEK BASINS. WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE HEADWATERS FOR BUFFALO/CAZENOVIA/CAYUGA/CATTARAUGUS
CREEKS GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES. BECAUSE THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF FORECAST...AND THAT THESE BASINS
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...HAVE ISSUED FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE BASINS. EXPECT AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING ON THESE
CREEKS...WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IF QPF EXCEEDS
FORECAST VALUES EVEN SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THESE BASINS HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL YEARS.

THE RISK IS SLIGHTLY LESS FOR THE GENESEE AND ALLEGHENY
BASINS...BUT THERE STILL IS A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FOR
THESE BASINS AS WELL. IN GENERAL...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS A BIT
LESS FOR THESE BASINS...AND QPF DROPS OFF TO THE SOUTH. THEN NORTH
ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER...WITH SOME PRECIPITATION EVEN FORECAST TO
FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THESE FACTORS WOULD SLOW RUN OFF...EVEN
SO...MMEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL ADDITIONAL FORECAST POINTS IN
THESE BASINS MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.

THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIPITATION MOSTLY FROZEN FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
STILL LIKELY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND...WITH SWE 3 TO 5 INCHES ON THE TUG HILL. IT WOULD
ONLY TAKE A SMALL SHIFT IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT FOR THE BLACK
RIVER BASIN TO FLOOD.

IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WILL BRING A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS AND IN LOW-
LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. ALSO...GAGES SUGGEST THAT ICE IS
BREAKING UP ON SOME CREEKS...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN MINOR ICE JAM
ISSUES UNTIL HIGHER FLOWS WASH OUT THE ICE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD BEGIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING. THE RISK WOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
VARIOUS BASINS RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. ISSUES COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY FOR SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ004-012>014.
     ICE STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

NYZ007-008-220845-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST SUNDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   ICE STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   ICE STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005-006-019>021-085-220845-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-012>014-220845-
WAYNE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-010-011-220845-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   ICE STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   ICE STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-220845-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
344 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

THOMAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
917 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

NYZ007-211630-
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
917 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WATERTOWN TO
FORT DRUM. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 11 AM. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE
ON TREES...POWERLINES...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THIS WILL BRING TREE
BRANCHES DOWN AND RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. IN ADDITION...SLICK
ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN
AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. BE AWARE OF SLICK
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1050 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

NYZ007-211815-
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
1050 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

FREEZING RAIN HAS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER WILL INTENSIFY AGAIN
THROUGH THE NOON OUR...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WATERTOWN TO FORT DRUM. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 PM. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCUMULATE ON TREES...POWERLINES...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THIS WILL
BRING TREE BRANCHES DOWN AND RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. IN
ADDITION...SLICK ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION. BE AWARE OF SLICK ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.