River Flood Watch 7, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
550 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA/HEAVY RAINS/SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS
WITH A TROUGH NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER. A COUPLE OF
BOUNDARIES/WEAKER TROUGHS EXTENDED EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND
WI/IL BORDER AND FROM NEAR KFSD TO NORTHWEST WI. THESE LAST TWO
LIKELY ARTIFACTS OF BOTH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THAT FROM LAST
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN IA BOUNDARY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING TSRA ACROSS EASTERN SD TO SOUTHERN WI.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WI WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT
NIGHT.

NO LARGE...GLARING ERRORS NOTED WITH 23.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...
THOUGH PLENTY OF SMALLER/MESO-SCALE DIFFERENCES IN THE 850-500MB
FIELDS. MUCH MORE THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHEN THE FCST AND
SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES ARE KEYED TO THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 23.00Z SHOWED THE MODEL RUNS OF 21.00Z
AND 22.00Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC...AT LEAST WITH
THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES. ALL EARLIER RUNS LOOKED TOO WEAK WITH
THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM MN/WI TO TX/CO.
EVEN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AT THE START...AT LEAST AT 500MB MODELS
QUITE SIMILAR FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MAN/WESTERN ONT. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TROUGH/LOW AT 12Z MON ONCE IT IS IN MAN/ONT BUT THIS WELL NORTH
OF THE FCST AREA. MODELS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR WITH A SMALL SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE TO BE APPROACHING/CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY. CHECK OF
OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED MOST WERE A BIT WEAK WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NEB AND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN
IA. MOST WERE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MOISTURE
PLUME OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. PER WV IMAGERY AND REGIONAL
RADAR REFLECTIVITY...ECMWF LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE DETAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS AGAIN GENERALLY
STRUGGLING WITH THE 00-06Z PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME BETTER IN
AREAS THAN OTHERS BUT OVERALL NO ONE MODEL LOOKED BETTER THAN THE
OTHERS. FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HEADED BY THE LOCAL
REGIONAL WRF MODELS...WHICH WERE BETTER AT DEPICTING THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE MESO-SCALE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.

PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...FORCING FOR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING LOOKS TO WANE AS THE SD SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO MN. THIS
INCREASES THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND TAKES MORE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH IT...PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. ANY BREAK FROM THE
CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY IT PUSHES THE SFC-700MB TROUGH BACK TO THE
EAST/SOUTH ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE. AS THIS TROUGHING APPROACHES SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG IT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PW VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 3.5 TO 4KM...ANY TSRA WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH THE THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. GIVEN THE PAST 2 NIGHTS OF HEAVY RAINS AND NO
ROOM TO PUT ANY MORE WATER...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
BUT CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM MON
MORNING. TRENDED RAIN CHANCES TOWARD 70 PERCENT WITH THE APPROACH/
PASSAGE OF THE SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ML CAPES IN THE 2K-3K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHEAR
IS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER AT 15-30KTS. THIS WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...FAVORABLE FORCING AND LOWER LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WITH MORE ORGANIZED TSRA. SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS.

APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER BREAK LATER TONIGHT/MON MORNING WITH THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHED EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA...
BUT NOT BY FAR. IF MODEL CONSENSUS IS CORRECT WITH ANOTHER
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MON...LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ARE AGAIN POINTED AT THE
FCST AREA FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WITH ML CAPES OF 2K TO 4K
J/KG AND PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS. RAISED
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MON AFTERNOON BUT MORE OF THIS MAY BE INTO
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE WAY THINGS HAVE BEEN GOING...ITS LIKELY
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR MON NIGHT.

USED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS TODAY THRU MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

MODEL CONSENSUS TREND FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT IS STRONGER WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO COME OUT OF THE ROCKIES MON NIGHT AND
END UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WED MORNING. HOWEVER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ON THIS FEATURE NOT THAT GOOD. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PERIOD AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED/
WET STRETCH OF DAYS. THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLES THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE REGION AND
ONE OR MORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA INITIATED MON AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT. AFTER THIS ONE CLEARS THE AREA/
DIMINISHES TUE MORNING...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO QUICKLY RELOAD. WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD THE AREA...YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WITH THE THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAINS LOOKS TO DEVELOP MOVE ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF IA/MN/WI. DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BY TUE/TUE
NIGHT SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WOULD BE. DUE TO THE CONVECTION UNKNOWNS...FOR NOW USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF LOWS/HIGHS MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN
TRANSITION IN THE WED-SAT PERIOD. INCREASING SIGNAL FOR RIDGING TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN DECENT BETWEEN MODEL AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD
AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WED-SAT TRENDING TO BE A DRIER/COOLER PERIOD AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO THE NORTHWEST. APPEARS TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING MAY BE THE LAST OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/HEAVY RAIN THREATS. FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY
WESTERLY/ZONAL WED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVING EAST
OF THE REGION. THIS CHANGE PUSHES THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OUT OF THE
AREA. SHRA/TSRA STILL POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF
THE SFC LOW WED THEN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES WED NIGHT INTO
SAT. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA THESE WOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE /ESPECIALLY BY THU/...HAVE LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH AND BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SMALLER MODEL CONSENSUS
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE WED-SAT PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR THIS PERIOD
LOOK GOOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...IMPACTING KRST IN THE 12-14Z TIMEFRAME...THEN
MARCHING EAST AND IMPACTING KLSE IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. THE
STORMS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING TO THE TAF
SITES ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING
THEN MORE STORMS WILL FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN ON STORMS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18 AND 20 Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WI. THIS BEING COVERED BY FLASH FLOOD AND AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS.
DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...SATURATED SOILS AND
THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN...LOCALLY 2
INCHES OR MORE IN REPEATING TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM MONDAY.

TRIBUTARY RIVERS LIKE THE KICAKPOO...BLACK...UPPER IOWA AND TURKEY
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE AND REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH RUNOFF PERCENTAGES WILL ONLY CREATE MORE
PROBLEMS WITH THESE LARGER RIVERS...ESPECIALLY AS THIS PERIOD OF
STORMY WEATHER AND THREAT OF MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT TERM WATER CONCERNS...THERE IS A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA...WINONA...AND LA CROSSE.
WATER FROM THE TRIBUTARY RIVERS...AND RIVERS NORTH OF THE FCST AREA
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MS RIVER...WITH THE MS RIVER
AT THESE LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND OR
AFTER THE 1ST OF JULY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RRS

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