Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS La Crosse, WI

451 
WGUS73 KARX 230224
FFSARX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
924 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

MNC169-WIC011-121-230630-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-130623T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINONA MN-BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
924 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN TREMPEALEAU...
SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO AND NORTHERN WINONA COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

ABOUT 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA.
SOME AREA ROADS ARE STARTING TO GET UNDER WATER...ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE WHITEWATER STATE PARK AREA IN WESTERN WINONA COUNTY MINNESOTA.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE 
NEXT FEW HOURS THAT COULD KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GOING.
STAY ON HIGH GROUND AND REMAIN ALERT FOR WATER COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF 
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO 
FLOODING.

FLOODING IS HARDER TO SPOT AT NIGHT.

&&

LAT...LON 4419 9207 4419 9187 4420 9187 4422 9153
      4419 9116 4408 9115 4409 9120 4406 9122
      4407 9126 4407 9131 4402 9134 4399 9132
      4398 9142 4393 9139 4394 9208

$$

SHEA

621 
WGUS73 KARX 230328
FFSARX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1028 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

MNC169-WIC011-121-230630-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-130623T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINONA MN-BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
1028 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN TREMPEALEAU...
SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO AND NORTHERN WINONA COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM...

RAINFALL HAS BEEN MUCH LIGHTER OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE WARNED AREA 
BUT THERE STILL COULD BE LASTING IMPACT FROM THE EARLIER ROUNDS OF
STORMS. ALLOW WATER TO RECEDE A BIT MORE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN 
ALERT FOR FLOODED OR DAMAGED ROADS.

THERE ARE STORMS FORMING BACK TO THE WEST THAT COULD MOVE IN...
BUT IF THEY REMAIN SOUTH OF THERE...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE 
CANCELLED EARLY.

LAT...LON 4419 9207 4419 9187 4420 9187 4422 9153
      4419 9116 4408 9115 4409 9120 4406 9122
      4407 9126 4407 9131 4402 9134 4399 9132
      4398 9142 4393 9139 4394 9208

$$


SHEA

174 
WGUS73 KARX 230600
FFSARX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

MNC169-WIC011-121-230630-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-130623T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINONA MN-BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN TREMPEALEAU...
SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO AND NORTHERN WINONA COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

MORE HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING THROUGH WINONA COUNTY MINNESOTA AS OF 
1250 AM. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING AS THIS NEXT 
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS 
TO SPOT AT NIGHT SO USE CAUTION IF YOU ARE TRAVELING OVERNIGHT.

ROADS COULD BE DAMAGED OVERNIGHT MAKING MORNING DRIVING DANGEROUS AS 
WELL.

LAT...LON 4419 9207 4419 9187 4420 9187 4422 9153
      4419 9116 4408 9115 4409 9120 4406 9122
      4407 9126 4407 9131 4402 9134 4399 9132
      4398 9142 4393 9139 4394 9208

$$


SHEA

761 
WGUS73 KARX 230628
FFSARX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
128 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

MNC169-WIC011-121-230642-
/O.EXP.KARX.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-130623T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINONA MN-BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
128 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN 
TREMPEALEAU...SOUTH BUFFALO AND WINONA COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 130 AM...

ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING 
THROUGH THE AREA...IT DOES NOT APPEAR RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN 
HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION THOUGH WHEN TRAVELING AROUND THE REGION 
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WERE MUDSLIDES EARLIER WHICH COULD PROVE 
DANGEROUS DURING NIGHTFALL.

LAT...LON 4419 9207 4419 9187 4420 9187 4422 9153
      4419 9116 4408 9115 4409 9120 4406 9122
      4407 9126 4407 9131 4402 9134 4399 9132
      4398 9142 4393 9139 4394 9208

$$

SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
631 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

AT 3 PM...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR
AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN IOWA. AS THE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES /LOWER 80S/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST IOWA TO GRADUALLY
UPSCALE AS IT MOVES INTO BETTER CAPES AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH
0-3 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS...THINKING THAT THE STORMS
BECOME MORE COLD POOL DOMINATED THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BOW ECHOS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WITH 1000 TO 1200 J/KG DCAPES THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUDS
DEPTHS BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE VERY
EFFECTIVE RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER WITH THIS SAID...WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH
URBANIZED AREAS WHERE JUST AN INCH OF RAIN AN HOUR CAN RESULT IN
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE 23.12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THEY HAVE SHOWED THIS FOR THE
PAST 6 MODEL CYCLES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES...AND THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS FALL INTO THE 3.5 TO 4 KM RANGE. THIS IS IDEA
THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN WANING OVERNIGHT IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 23.07Z AND 23.09Z.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS
BEEN POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMB ABOVE 4 KM...AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST TRAINING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING. CERTAINTY ON THE SPEED AND LOCATION
OF THIS FRONT WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. IT MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME DRYING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THIS...THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WHICH MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...SO JUST WENT WITH THE ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WOULD PLACE THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT CLEAR AS THERE WILL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KFBL TO NEAR KMFI WITH ANOTHER
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...BETWEEN KMCW AND KAUM...INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN NEAR KLNR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVE PAST KRST AND WITH
NOTHING DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO START THEM WITH VCTS AND
TEMPO A SHORT PERIOD OF A STORM AT THE AIRPORT EARLY THIS EVENING.
WILL ALSO START KLSE WITH VCTS BUT CARRY A TEMPO A LITTLE LONGER
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. AFTER
THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING...UNCLEAR ON WHERE THE STORMS WILL BE
DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH THE
BOUNDARIES. STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARIES TO BE IN THE AREA BUT
MOVING NORTH...SO HAVE LEFT VCTS IN AND PLAN TO UPDATE IF A STORM
LOOKS TO THREATEN ONE OF THE AIRPORTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE BOUNDARIES WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANY CONVECTION ALSO NORTH
OF THE AREA. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE MORE STORMS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS...WILL PLAN TO ADDRESS
THIS WITH THE NEXT SET OF FORECASTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

HYDRO CONCERNS LINGER ACROSS TURKEY...UPPER IOWA...SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE KICKAPOO...BLACK...AND TURTLE CREEK. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL
STREAMS ACROSS ALLAMAKEE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
AND CRAWFORD AND GRANT COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF MOST OF THESE BASINS. HOWEVER THERE IS
CONCERN ON SUNDAY THAT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT CLEAR.

IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT TERM WATER CONCERNS...THERE IS A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA...WINONA...AND
LA CROSSE. THESE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL
AFTER JULY 1ST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-231100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA
CROSSE-MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
VERNON-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1210 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON MONDAY.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SEVERE RISKS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
HEAVY RAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY POSE A
SEVERE THREAT.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ARE LIKELY EACH DAY. AS THE HEAT
INDICES INCREASE...SO DOES THE CONCERN FOR HEAT-RELATED ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED.

RRS/BOYNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             ROCHESTER               44.01N 92.48W
06/22/2013  M0.25 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ZT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
619 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

MNZ079-WIZ032-230015-
BUFFALO-WABASHA-
619 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BUFFALO AND WABASHA COUNTIES...

AT 613 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WABASHA COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
KRUGER CAMPGROUND...RATTLESNAKE RIDGE...WABASHA...KELLOGG...NELSON...
PIONEER CAMPGROUND...HIGHWAYS 37 AND 35 AND ALMA.

ZT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
636 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             DECORAH                 43.31N 91.79W
06/22/2013  M0.25 INCH       WINNESHIEK         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ZT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
652 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

0615 PM     HAIL             2 SW ROCHESTER          43.99N 92.50W
06/22/2013  M1.50 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

            VIA TWITTER REPORT WITH A PICTURE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
717 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RIDGEWAY                43.30N 91.99W
06/22/2013                   WINNESHIEK         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEPUTY SHERIFF REPORTED NEW FLASH FLOODING
            PROBLEMS FROM RIDGEWAY OVER TO CASTALIA.
            PRIMARILY WATER OVER ROADS BUT NO SPECIFICS
            AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
739 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

0735 PM     FLOOD            WINONA                  44.05N 91.66W
06/22/2013                   WINONA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN WINONA.