Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS La Crosse, WI

614 
WGUS73 KARX 230517
FFSARX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1217 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

IAC089-131-MNC045-055-099-230730-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130623T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MITCHELL IA-HOWARD IA-FILLMORE MN-HOUSTON MN-MOWER MN-
1217 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOWER...
NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON...FILLMORE...HOWARD AND MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL
230 AM CDT...

WAVE AFTER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT HAVE DROPPED 2 TO 3 INCHES 
OF RAIN FROM NEAR OSAGE IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SATURDAY 
EVENING. FLOODING WAS STARTING TO BE REPORTED IN THIS AREA AS 
ADDITIONAL STORMS ROLL THROUGH.

SMALLER ROADS OUTSIDE OF HOUSTON MINNESOTA WERE BECOMING FLOODED AND 
MANY AREA CREEKS WERE RISING VERY QUICKLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4367 9281 4385 9244 4384 9173 4374 9125
      4350 9173 4350 9208 4321 9208 4322 9303
      4350 9303

$$


SHEA

914 
WGUS73 KARX 230614
FFSARX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
114 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

IAC089-131-MNC045-055-099-230730-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130623T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MITCHELL IA-HOWARD IA-FILLMORE MN-HOUSTON MN-MOWER MN-
114 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOWER...
NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON...FILLMORE...HOWARD AND MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL
230 AM CDT...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WERE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA 
AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS HITTING 
FILLMORE AND HOUSTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THE HARDEST AT 
110 AM.

THE FILLMORE COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT REPORTED FLOODING IN MABEL 
AND WATER OVER PARTS OF HIGHWAY 250 NORTH OF LANESBORO.

IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT 
THE FLOOD THREAT MAY LINGER UNTIL ALL RUNOFF OCCURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4367 9281 4385 9244 4384 9173 4374 9125
      4350 9173 4350 9208 4321 9208 4322 9303
      4350 9303

$$

SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
631 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

AT 3 PM...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR
AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN IOWA. AS THE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES /LOWER 80S/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST IOWA TO GRADUALLY
UPSCALE AS IT MOVES INTO BETTER CAPES AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH
0-3 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS...THINKING THAT THE STORMS
BECOME MORE COLD POOL DOMINATED THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BOW ECHOS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WITH 1000 TO 1200 J/KG DCAPES THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUDS
DEPTHS BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE VERY
EFFECTIVE RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER WITH THIS SAID...WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH
URBANIZED AREAS WHERE JUST AN INCH OF RAIN AN HOUR CAN RESULT IN
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE 23.12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THEY HAVE SHOWED THIS FOR THE
PAST 6 MODEL CYCLES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES...AND THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS FALL INTO THE 3.5 TO 4 KM RANGE. THIS IS IDEA
THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN WANING OVERNIGHT IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 23.07Z AND 23.09Z.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS
BEEN POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMB ABOVE 4 KM...AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST TRAINING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING. CERTAINTY ON THE SPEED AND LOCATION
OF THIS FRONT WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. IT MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME DRYING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THIS...THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WHICH MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...SO JUST WENT WITH THE ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WOULD PLACE THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT CLEAR AS THERE WILL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KFBL TO NEAR KMFI WITH ANOTHER
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...BETWEEN KMCW AND KAUM...INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN NEAR KLNR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVE PAST KRST AND WITH
NOTHING DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO START THEM WITH VCTS AND
TEMPO A SHORT PERIOD OF A STORM AT THE AIRPORT EARLY THIS EVENING.
WILL ALSO START KLSE WITH VCTS BUT CARRY A TEMPO A LITTLE LONGER
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. AFTER
THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING...UNCLEAR ON WHERE THE STORMS WILL BE
DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH THE
BOUNDARIES. STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARIES TO BE IN THE AREA BUT
MOVING NORTH...SO HAVE LEFT VCTS IN AND PLAN TO UPDATE IF A STORM
LOOKS TO THREATEN ONE OF THE AIRPORTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE BOUNDARIES WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANY CONVECTION ALSO NORTH
OF THE AREA. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE MORE STORMS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS...WILL PLAN TO ADDRESS
THIS WITH THE NEXT SET OF FORECASTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

HYDRO CONCERNS LINGER ACROSS TURKEY...UPPER IOWA...SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE KICKAPOO...BLACK...AND TURTLE CREEK. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL
STREAMS ACROSS ALLAMAKEE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
AND CRAWFORD AND GRANT COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF MOST OF THESE BASINS. HOWEVER THERE IS
CONCERN ON SUNDAY THAT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT CLEAR.

IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT TERM WATER CONCERNS...THERE IS A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA...WINONA...AND
LA CROSSE. THESE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL
AFTER JULY 1ST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-231100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA
CROSSE-MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
VERNON-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1210 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON MONDAY.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SEVERE RISKS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
HEAVY RAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY POSE A
SEVERE THREAT.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ARE LIKELY EACH DAY. AS THE HEAT
INDICES INCREASE...SO DOES THE CONCERN FOR HEAT-RELATED ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED.

RRS/BOYNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1032 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OSAGE                   43.28N 92.81W
06/22/2013  M1.90 INCH       MITCHELL           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ZT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1036 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW LYNXVILLE          43.23N 91.08W
06/22/2013                   CRAWFORD           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MUD SLIDE ONTO HIGHWAY 35

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1052 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE RICHLAND CENTER    43.30N 90.33W
06/22/2013                   RICHLAND           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            MUD SLIDES AND MORE WATER COMING OVER COUNTY ROADS.

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1104 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHASEBURG               43.65N 91.10W
06/22/2013                   VERNON             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADS ALONG HIGHWAY 162.

1104 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BOSCOBEL                43.14N 90.70W
06/22/2013  M2.60 INCH       GRANT              WI   ASOS

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1108 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1106 PM     HEAVY RAIN       RICHLAND CENTER         43.34N 90.38W
06/22/2013  M2.64 INCH       RICHLAND           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT EOC

1106 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE MUSCODA            43.21N 90.41W
06/22/2013                   RICHLAND           WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUDSLIDES HAVE CLOSED PARTS OF HIGHWAY 60 BETWEEN MUSCODA
            AND GOTHAM.

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW GOTHAM             43.24N 90.34W
06/22/2013                   RICHLAND           WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUDSLIDES ALONG COUNTY ROAD 0

1107 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GILLINGHAM              43.43N 90.45W
06/22/2013                   RICHLAND           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER OVER SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY 56

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1116 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE RICHLAND CENTER   43.27N 90.35W
06/22/2013                   RICHLAND           WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROADS O AND OO.
            IMPASSABLE.

&&

SHEA