River Flood Warning 54, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
631 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

AT 3 PM...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR
AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN IOWA. AS THE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES /LOWER 80S/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST IOWA TO GRADUALLY
UPSCALE AS IT MOVES INTO BETTER CAPES AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH
0-3 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS...THINKING THAT THE STORMS
BECOME MORE COLD POOL DOMINATED THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BOW ECHOS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WITH 1000 TO 1200 J/KG DCAPES THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUDS
DEPTHS BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE VERY
EFFECTIVE RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER WITH THIS SAID...WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH
URBANIZED AREAS WHERE JUST AN INCH OF RAIN AN HOUR CAN RESULT IN
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE 23.12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THEY HAVE SHOWED THIS FOR THE
PAST 6 MODEL CYCLES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES...AND THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS FALL INTO THE 3.5 TO 4 KM RANGE. THIS IS IDEA
THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN WANING OVERNIGHT IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 23.07Z AND 23.09Z.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS
BEEN POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMB ABOVE 4 KM...AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST TRAINING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING. CERTAINTY ON THE SPEED AND LOCATION
OF THIS FRONT WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. IT MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME DRYING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THIS...THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WHICH MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...SO JUST WENT WITH THE ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WOULD PLACE THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT CLEAR AS THERE WILL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KFBL TO NEAR KMFI WITH ANOTHER
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...BETWEEN KMCW AND KAUM...INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN NEAR KLNR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVE PAST KRST AND WITH
NOTHING DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO START THEM WITH VCTS AND
TEMPO A SHORT PERIOD OF A STORM AT THE AIRPORT EARLY THIS EVENING.
WILL ALSO START KLSE WITH VCTS BUT CARRY A TEMPO A LITTLE LONGER
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. AFTER
THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING...UNCLEAR ON WHERE THE STORMS WILL BE
DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH THE
BOUNDARIES. STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARIES TO BE IN THE AREA BUT
MOVING NORTH...SO HAVE LEFT VCTS IN AND PLAN TO UPDATE IF A STORM
LOOKS TO THREATEN ONE OF THE AIRPORTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE BOUNDARIES WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANY CONVECTION ALSO NORTH
OF THE AREA. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE MORE STORMS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS...WILL PLAN TO ADDRESS
THIS WITH THE NEXT SET OF FORECASTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

HYDRO CONCERNS LINGER ACROSS TURKEY...UPPER IOWA...SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE KICKAPOO...BLACK...AND TURTLE CREEK. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL
STREAMS ACROSS ALLAMAKEE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
AND CRAWFORD AND GRANT COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF MOST OF THESE BASINS. HOWEVER THERE IS
CONCERN ON SUNDAY THAT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT CLEAR.

IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT TERM WATER CONCERNS...THERE IS A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA...WINONA...AND
LA CROSSE. THESE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL
AFTER JULY 1ST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-231100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA
CROSSE-MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
VERNON-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1210 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON MONDAY.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SEVERE RISKS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
HEAVY RAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY POSE A
SEVERE THREAT.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ARE LIKELY EACH DAY. AS THE HEAT
INDICES INCREASE...SO DOES THE CONCERN FOR HEAT-RELATED ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED.

RRS/BOYNE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1155 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DE SOTO                 43.43N 91.20W
06/22/2013  M1.20 INCH       VERNON             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ZT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

IAZ008-009-018-MNZ094-095-230600-
FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-
1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FILLMORE...FLOYD...
HOWARD...MITCHELL AND MOWER COUNTIES...

AT 1157 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AUSTIN MINNESOTA TO NEAR MASON CITY IOWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING SO
USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1203 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E DECORAH             43.31N 91.75W
06/23/2013  M2.49 INCH       WINNESHIEK         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1204 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S BLUE RIVER          43.13N 90.57W
06/23/2013  M5.20 INCH       GRANT              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ZT