Storm Warning 61, NWS Anchorage, AK

963 
FZAK61 PAFC 071250
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080300-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE ONSHORE TONIGHT. A 957
MB LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT
MOVES TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

622 
FZAK61 PAFC 072355
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081500-
400 PM AKST THU MAR 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT. A 960 MB LOW JUST 
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN TO 977 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-081500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
TO 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-081500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
350 PM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A VERY ACTIVE WAVE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN
TODAY...WITH A CLOSED BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA IS A POWERFUL
CYCLONE DEEPENING NEAR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR.
TO THE EAST IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
AND SHARPEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA AS A VIGOROUS
OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SURGES
INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AKPEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
KUSKOKWIM COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH BOTH THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN AND THE STORM CURRENTLY DEEPENING SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN...EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 960 HPA THURSDAY
MORNING. THE 12Z NAM WAS THE BIGGEST OUTLIER WITH A DEEPER AND
FARTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT THE 18Z NAM HAS SINCE CORRECTED
EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. INITIALIZATION WAS GOOD AMONG
ALL THE MODELS...WITH THE DIFFERENCES LIKELY ARISING DUE TO HOW THEY
SIMULATE THE STRONG MOIST FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE ELONGATED WARM
FRONT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. THESE SITUATIONS TEND TO FORM A COMPACT
LOW...BUT NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP BENT BACK OCCLUSION AS THE 12Z NAM
SUGGESTS. THE 12Z GFS DIVERGED FROM EARLIER RUNS WITH AN UNREALISTIC
FAST AND BROAD LOW...AND WAS ALSO DISCOUNTED. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z
ECMWF WAS FAVORED ACROSS BOTH SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
BERING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z CANADIAN AND UKMET.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
REMNANT MOISTURE BEHIND A DEPARTING AND WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS
TRANSLATING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE KENAI COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEVELOPING DOWN INLET FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE INTERIOR LARGELY DRY THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE
AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEP PACIFIC LOW WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE WARM FRONT REACHING KODIAK
ISLAND BY NOON AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY EARLY EVENING. COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL RAPIDLY TURN TO ALL RAIN AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
INLAND LOW ELEVATION AREAS MIXING WITH RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN
PWS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW EVENING  AS
THE FRONT LIFTS INLAND...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THOMPSON PASS. ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL...STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
FLOW WILL KEEP THE TYPICAL DOWNWIND LOCATIONS LARGELY DRY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE STRONG ESE WINDS
ACCELERATING DOWN TURNAGAIN ARM AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TREND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
LOW TRACK...HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY MEET LOW END WARNING
CRITERIA. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL INTO THE MAT-SU VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION AS THE RAGGED REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LOW PASS THROUGH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/PENINSULA...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH BRISTOL
BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LAGGING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE
FAR WESTERN AKPEN SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF COLD BAY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NET RESULT WILL BE VERY STRONG GAP WINDS
ACCELERATING THROUGH FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...AND
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM PORT HEIDEN TO
KING SALMON. WHILE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA MAY SEE
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
WARMING WILL RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR A MIX BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...SLIGHTLY COLDER LOW
LEVEL AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE INTERIOR WILL FAVOR MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WITH A FAVORABLE LOW TRACK EAST OF
THE PRIBILOFS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
BEGINNING NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
STRONG SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OVER THE WESTERN AKPEN
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE LOW
TRACK EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BY LATE TONIGHT TO STORM FORCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA. THE FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE PRIBILOFS...HOWEVER...WITH NEAR
CONTINUOUS SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS LEADING TO
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...BRIEF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FRONT
LIFTS OVER THIS EVENING...BUT THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY WARM UP. RAIN AND SNOW WILL TURN BACK TO ALL SNOW BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AND COLD AIR
FILTERS BACK IN. WITH UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND MAX STORM FORCE
WINDS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL ENVELOP THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FROM
LATE THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND QUIESCENT WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SLIDE EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW OVER ALASKA WILL
WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD...LEAVING LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
BERING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING
SNOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE AKPEN...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TRACK. THEREAFTER...BOTH THE
GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DEVELOP A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BERING SEA TO
GREENLAND. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A COLDER AND LARGELY DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN FOR MAINLAND ALASKA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131 155 185 195.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101 161.
MARINE...GALES 120 125 136 137 140 141 165 180 185.
         STORMS 130 132 138 150 155 160 170 171 172 179 351 352 412
                413 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AHSENMACHER MAR 13