Small Craft Advisory 208, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR ALASKA CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT AS AN
ALEUTIAN LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.  A
WEAKENING RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
YUKON TERRITORY OF CANADA. THIS IS PRODUCING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING HIGH WINDS TO AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY. A FRONT FROM
THE ALEUTIAN LOW IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
AS IT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THEY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH THE ALEUTIAN LOW AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. WE CURRENTLY PREFER THE EC
SOLUTION FOR THE WEAKENING LOW...WHICH KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA...RATHER THAN THE NAM/GFS WHICH QUICKLY
MOVES IT INTO EASTERN SIBERIA. THE GFS IS ALSO THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH CREATING A WEAK SECONDARY LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT...AND AS A RESULT HAS A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGES AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE LOW POSITION OFFER
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL SNOWFALL CHANCE
THIS WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THERE IS NOW HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST
ANCHORAGE AND THE LOWER HILLSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A TRAPPED
MOUNTAIN WAVE. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER EAST
ANCHORAGE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING TO LATE THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF.

SOUTHWEST...THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HIGH WINDS ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST TODAY. THE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL ALSO
CREATE DOWNSLOPING FROM KING SALMON TO ILIAMNA...THEREFORE THEY
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY TODAY OTHER THAN A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. ON
THE OTHER HAND...AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY FROM DILLINGHAM WESTWARD WILL
REMAIN IN STEADY RAIN AND SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE NEXT
CONCERN FOR THIS AREA IS WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW. BECAUSE OF THIS A
BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WESTWARD WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW SLOWLY RIDES UP THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ONCE THE ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
WEEK...THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS PROGRESS
THROUGH THE STATE AND INTO THE GULF. THEN THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT A RIDGE WILL SET UP FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE
INTERIOR. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA CLEAR AND DRY
WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 161
         BLIZZARD WARNING 131 155 185 195
         BLIZZARD WATCH 181
MARINE...STORM 130 132 136 137 160 170 172 179
         GALE 120 125 138 140 141 150 155 165 180 171 176 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK MAR 13

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>