Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307

May 27, 201246 counties in Minnesota; 7 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 27, 2012, 6:08 PM CDT for 46 counties in Minnesota; 7 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 27, 2012, 6:08 PM CDT (23:08 UTC)
Expired
May 28, 2012, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 53 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Cass County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Pine County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Steele County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Barron County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

33 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 27, 6:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXChisago49 min
May 27, 6:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHBurnett58 min
May 27, 6:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHPine27 min
May 27, 6:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXLe Sueur, Rice, Scott48 min
May 27, 7:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHPine38 min
May 27, 7:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXCarver, Scott60 min
May 27, 7:18 PM CDTTornado WarningMPXPolk27 min
May 27, 7:21 PM CDTTornado WarningDLHBurnett54 min
May 27, 7:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXCarver, Hennepin, Scott48 min
May 27, 7:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBlue Earth, Brown, Nicollet, Sibley, Watonwan60 min
May 27, 7:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXKandiyohi, Meeker, Stearns61 min
May 27, 7:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXAnoka, Hennepin45 min
May 27, 7:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCarlton, Pine23 min
May 27, 7:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBlue Earth, Le Sueur, Nicollet, Waseca55 min
May 27, 7:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHPine36 min
May 27, 7:55 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMPXChisago5 hr
May 27, 8:02 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDLHBurnett6 hr
May 27, 8:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXKandiyohi, Meeker, Renville53 min
May 27, 8:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXAnoka, Ramsey34 min
May 27, 8:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHBurnett44 min
May 27, 8:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXCarver, Hennepin, McLeod, Scott, Wright51 min
May 27, 8:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXAnoka, Isanti46 min
May 27, 8:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXKandiyohi, Meeker57 min
May 27, 8:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXAnoka, Chisago, Isanti, Kanabec62 min
May 27, 9:27 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMPXBlue Earth, Brown, Hennepin, McLeod, Meeker, Nicollet and 4 more6 hr
May 27, 9:28 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDLHCarlton, Pine6 hr
May 27, 9:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBenton, Morrison, Sherburne, Stearns62 min
May 27, 9:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Pine41 min
May 27, 9:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBenton, Isanti, Kanabec, Mille Lacs62 min
May 27, 9:46 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMPXAnoka, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Hennepin, Isanti and 2 more6 hr
May 27, 9:53 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMPXBenton, Mille Lacs, Sherburne, Stearns4 hr
May 27, 9:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Carlton, Crow Wing, Pine52 min
May 27, 11:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDakota, Goodhue29 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2012-05-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 845 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2012-05-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 380 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
845 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-438 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
662 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
380 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
375 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

975 
WWUS20 KWNS 272307
SEL7
SPC WW 272307
MNZ000-WIZ000-280600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
       WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANKATO MINNESOTA TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRAINERD MINNESOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 304...WW 305...WW 306...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN...WHILE SEVERAL INTENSE STORMS
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.  AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 26, 7:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Carlton, Crow Wing, Itasca, Pine2 hr
May 26, 11:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Benton, Clay, Crow Wing, Douglas, Grant and 12 more93 min
May 27, 2:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCottonwood, Jackson, Martin, Murray, Nobles, Rock62 min
May 27, 3:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Cottonwood, Jackson, Lincoln, Lyon, Martin and 6 more8 hr
May 27, 3:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Benton, Chisago, Crow Wing, Douglas, Grant and 19 more56 min
May 27, 6:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Cottonwood, Jackson, Martin, Murray, Nobles and 3 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.