Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 931
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 27, 2012, 7:47 PM CDT for 39 counties in Minnesota; 5 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 27, 2012, 7:47 PM CDT (00:47 UTC)
- Expired
- May 27, 2012, 9:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 44 counties
Aitkin County, MN, Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Pine County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Steele County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Wright County, MN, Burnett County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI
The radar
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1850 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -25 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1669 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 79 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 285 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.7
- Supercell composite
- 17.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
786
ACUS11 KWNS 280048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280047
WIZ000-MNZ000-280215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...MN...NWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307...
VALID 280047Z - 280215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MN WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...A
LOW TORNADO THREAT EXISTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRAIN NWD.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. 00Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACED
THE COLD FRONT ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED LINE FROM AXN TO PQN WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM PKD TO CDD. THE AIR MASS IN THE WARM
SECTION IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. 00Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG EXISTS JUST S
OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS W-CNTRL MN AND NWRN WI. PRIMARY THREAT
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA APPEARS TO BE SEVERE HAIL/WIND. WIND THREAT
MAY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
CONVECTIVE LINE/MCS IS POSSIBLE. LOW TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ACROSS
WRN MN/NWRN WI AS SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR.
..MOSIER.. 05/28/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...
LAT...LON 44559584 45559577 46729533 46879392 46539154 43759277
44559584SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 9:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blue Earth, Jackson, Martin, Nicollet, Watonwan | 84 min |
| May 27, 10:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aitkin, Anoka, Benton, Blue Earth, Brown, Carlton and 45 more | 94 min |
| May 28, 1:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anoka, Benton, Carlton, Carver, Chisago, Dakota and 17 more | 57 min |
| May 28, 2:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anoka, Benton, Carlton, Carver, Chisago, Dakota and 14 more | 6 hr |
| May 28, 3:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anoka, Benton, Carlton, Carver, Chisago, Dakota and 16 more | 92 min |
| May 28, 12:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calumet, Clark, Columbia, Crawford and 34 more | 60 min |
| May 28, 12:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calumet, Clark, Columbia, Crawford and 47 more | 7 hr |
| May 28, 6:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barron, Chippewa, Dunn, Rusk, Sawyer, Washburn | 62 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.