Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 916

May 26, 20125 counties in Minnesota; 16 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2012, 7:56 PM CDT for 5 counties in Minnesota; 16 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 26, 2012, 7:56 PM CDT (00:56 UTC)
Expired: May 26, 2012, 10:00 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 21 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Pine County, MN, Ashland County, WI, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Iron County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 517 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 442 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 539 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

282 
ACUS11 KWNS 270056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270056 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-270300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MN...NWRN/CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 270056Z - 270300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E-CNTRL MN AND NWRN/CNTRL WI WITH THE ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HAIL. ISOLATED/BRIEF NATURE OF THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN/SLIGHTLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY RELATED TO WAA ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET. MPX 00Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ROOTED AROUND 6-7 KFT WITH APPROXIMATELY 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ABOVE
THAT LEVEL. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS HIGH / 500+ M2/S2 OF 0-3 KM
SRH/...EFFECTIVE SHEAR UTILIZED BY THE ELEVATED PARCEL IS MUCH LOWER
AND LIKELY LESS THAN 30 KTS. AS A RESULT...MOST LIKELY STORM MODE IS
BRIEFLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. WEAK INVERSION NOTED ON THE 00Z MPX
SOUNDING WILL LIMIT THE WIND THREAT DESPITE THE FAST STORM MOTION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LOW-END SEVERE HAIL BUT THE
BREVITY/ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/HART.. 05/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   47399204 46829062 46769055 46289003 45668971 45108973
            44609035 44429082 44389158 45369213 46649443 47569357
            47399204

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 26, 11:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Benton, Clay, Crow Wing, Douglas, Grant and 12 more	93 min
May 27, 2:58 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cottonwood, Jackson, Martin, Murray, Nobles, Rock	62 min
May 27, 3:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brown, Cottonwood, Jackson, Lincoln, Lyon, Martin and 6 more	8 hr
May 27, 3:49 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Benton, Chisago, Crow Wing, Douglas, Grant and 19 more	56 min
May 27, 6:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Aitkin, Anoka, Benton, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver and 40 more	7 hr
May 27, 6:55 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blue Earth, Cottonwood, Jackson, Martin, Murray, Nobles and 3 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.