Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129

Issued

Apr 2, 2012, 3:37 PM CDT (20:37 UTC)

Expired

Apr 2, 2012, 11:00 PM CDT

In force

7 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

3 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 165 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

70%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

60%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

80%

• Mesoscale Discussion 415Apr 2, 3:00 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 421Apr 2, 6:51 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 422Apr 2, 7:17 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 423Apr 2, 9:12 PM CDT

807 
WWUS20 KWNS 022044
SEL9
SPC WW 022044
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-030400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       SOUTHWEST KANSAS
       WESTERN OKLAHOMA
       NORTHWEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 126...WW 127...WW 128...

DISCUSSION...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ALONG STATIONARY FRONT OVER SWRN KS INTO THE NRN TX PNHDL...AS
WELL AS ALONG DRYLINE INTO W-CNTRL TX.  AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME
STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000-3500
J/KG WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AREA
VAD/PROFILER DATA AND MODEL FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER/ IS
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  WHEN COUPLED WITH RATHER LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
BY 03/00-03Z...BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITH
STORMS THAT REMAIN MORE DISCRETE.  THUS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH LATER THIS
EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 20025.


...MEAD

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.