Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 890

May 24, 201244 counties in Iowa; 4 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2012, 3:06 PM CDT for 44 counties in Iowa; 4 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 24, 2012, 3:06 PM CDT (20:06 UTC)
Expired
May 24, 2012, 5:00 PM CDT
In force
114 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 52 counties

Allamakee County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Butler County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Howard County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Linn County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Gentry County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Worth County, MO, Crawford County, WI, Grant County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Richland County, WI

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 137 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2012-05-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2012-05-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 84 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1568 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

656 
ACUS11 KWNS 242006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242006 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN IA...EXTREME NRN MO...SWRN
WI...EXTREME NWRN IL -- S OF WW 295.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 242006Z - 242200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS INCREASING INVOF SFC COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL/SWRN IA AND OVER NWRN MO.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSTMS TO
EVOLVE FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS IA SW
OF WW 295.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL
ALSO POSSIBLE. WW APPEARS MORE PROBABLE IN NERN IA/SWRN WI VERSUS
ELSEWHERE IN DISCUSSION AREA.

DISCUSSION...AT 1945Z..SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED SSWWD FROM SERN MN
LOW...ACROSS BOONE COUNTY IA TO BROWN COUNTY KS.  FRONT SHOULD MOVE
EWD/SEWD ACROSS IA...IMPINGING ON WARM SECTOR THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.  CONVECTION WILL IMPINGE
ON NARROW CORRIDOR OF AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE WARM-SECTOR THETAE
OVER CENTRAL/SRN IA AND SWRN WI...SANDWICHED BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND
PLUME OF RELATIVE LOW-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER E THAT HAS BEEN INDICATED
PERSISTENTLY IN RAOB ANALYSES AND SATELLITE-DERIVED TOTAL-PW
IMAGERY.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG WITH
50-100 NM AHEAD OF FRONT...ATOP WELL-MIXED/INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE IN BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS REGIME...SET AMIDST 50-70 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND STG DEEP-LAYER WINDS ALIGNED NEARLY
PARALLEL TO FRONT...INDICATES QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.  STRONGEST MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN N OF MO THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WHILE CINH INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT.  THIS INDICATES
ANY CONVECTION S OF IA SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT
AS INTENSE AS FARTHER N.

..EDWARDS/WEISS.. 05/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   43578991 42629016 42349029 41389134 40669271 39929513
            41179413 42489337 43519301 43489122 43578991

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 23, 8:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudubon, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cass, Cherokee and 23 more94 min
May 24, 6:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Chickasaw, Clayton and 8 more57 min
May 24, 1:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Black Hawk, Bremer, Butler, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw and 10 more116 min
May 24, 3:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllamakee, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan and 39 more4 hr
May 24, 5:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Buchanan, Cedar and 24 more2 hr
May 24, 5:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton, Clay, Clinton and 22 more2 hr
May 24, 2:22 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Ashland, Barron, Bayfield, Buffalo, Chippewa and 27 more5 hr
May 24, 5:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Clark, Eau Claire, Florence, Forest, Iron and 15 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.