Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 891
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2012, 5:11 PM CDT for 28 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 24, 2012, 5:11 PM CDT (22:11 UTC)
- Expired
- May 24, 2012, 7:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 28 counties
Adair County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 226 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 432 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -440 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1178 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 252 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 283 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
866
ACUS11 KWNS 242211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242211
MOZ000-KSZ000-250015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 242211Z - 250015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MO. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING COVERAGE BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
FAR NRN MO. INITIATION FARTHER S IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOA 10 DEG C AT 700 MB/ AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE 700 MB IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS STORM COVERAGE
MINIMAL ACROSS THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLEARING TRENDS AHEAD OF FRONT...WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE IS HIGH BUT PORTIONS
OF THIS AREA MAY NEED A WW IF COVERAGE INCREASES.
..MOSIER/HART.. 05/24/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...
LAT...LON 40189425 40439388 40509320 40469224 40309157 40019149
39739156 39289185 38789298 38809388 38919461 39289469
39989438 40189425SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 3:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gentry, Harrison, Mercer, Worth | 114 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.