Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 837
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 19, 2012, 12:37 PM MDT for 7 counties in Colorado; 15 counties in Kansas; 5 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 19, 2012, 12:37 PM MDT (18:37 UTC)
- Expired
- May 19, 2012, 2:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 27 counties
Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Gove County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Logan County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Chase County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Red Willow County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 216 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -35 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 820 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -128 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -51 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
716
ACUS11 KWNS 191838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191837
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND SWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191837Z - 192030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING FROM SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND SWRN NEB.
DUE TO THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE EVENTS...A WW WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB
SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAPID REFRESH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX OVER
ERN CO WHICH IS AUGMENTING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME WHERE 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS. POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE STORMS ARE ROOTED NEAR 800 MB...BUT
EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS TRENDS
BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40990110 40380040 39040029 37830104 37120259 37160415
37930427 38970237 40630167 40990110SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 1:36 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Dickinson and 30 more | 84 min |
| May 19, 2:25 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay and 32 more | 7 hr |
| May 19, 4:41 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Geary and 14 more | 64 min |
| May 18, 11:51 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Keya Paha | 84 min |
| May 19, 5:52 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dakota | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.