Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 535

April 14, 201213 counties in Kansas; Alfalfa County, Grant County, Major County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 14, 2012, 7:15 PM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas; Alfalfa County, Grant County, Major County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 14, 2012, 7:15 PM CDT (00:15 UTC)
Expired: Apr 14, 2012, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Geary County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Marion County, KS, Morris County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Grant County, OK, Major County, OK

The radar

The Wichita radar (KICT), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2195 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -11 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 863 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 335 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 436 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 5.9
Supercell composite: 19.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

783 
ACUS11 KWNS 150016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150015
KSZ000-OKZ000-150115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NW AND N CNTRL OK INTO NE KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...

VALID 150015Z - 150115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.

LONG-LIVED...MODESTLY FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING.

SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 30
KT...THROUGH THE OPEN WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
REMAINS WEAK/UNCERTAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...AND INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME WITH SURFACE COOLING.  HOWEVER...BENEATH
DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...STORM-SCALE
DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY INTO AT LEAST THE
02-04Z TIME FRAME.  CELLS APPEAR GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS /50-70 KT AT 850 MB/...WHERE
ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL SUPPORT
THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

THE HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE WITH CELLS DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...NEAR/SOUTH OF WICHITA...ASSOCIATED WITH INFLOW OF AT LEAST
A BIT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR THAN CELLS FARTHER NORTH.

OTHERWISE...NW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE BACK TO THE WEST
ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
RETREATED WESTWARD SOME THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.

..KERR.. 04/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36589878 37919790 39239719 39889605 39339580 36969720
            36159847 36199879 36589878

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 14, 10:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Butler, Chase, Clay, Coffey, Dickinson, Douglas and 19 more	83 min
Apr 14, 11:48 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Coffey, Douglas, Franklin, Johnson, Leavenworth, Lyon and 2 more	87 min
Apr 15, 1:37 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Atchison, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Coffey and 26 more	5 hr
Apr 15, 4:32 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Coffey and 13 more	88 min
Apr 15, 6:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cherokee, Crawford, Labette	85 min
Apr 15, 6:38 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Cherokee	4 hr
Apr 14, 10:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Comanche, Cotton, Tillman	6 hr
Apr 15, 9:25 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	LeFlore, McCurtain	95 min
Apr 15, 10:51 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	LeFlore	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.