Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2069

October 17, 2012Calloway County, Kentucky; Alcorn County, Mississippi; 21 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 17, 2012, 8:07 PM CDT for Calloway County, Kentucky; Alcorn County, Mississippi; 21 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 17, 2012, 8:07 PM CDT (01:07 UTC)
Expired
Oct 17, 2012, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
53 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 23 counties

Calloway County, KY, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Perry County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2012-10-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2012-10-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 169 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1963 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
169 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
300 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

344 
ACUS11 KWNS 180108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180107
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-180200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 180107Z - 180200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS NOW CROSSING THE MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY POSE
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  NEW WW WILL BE
NEEDED SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING STORMS ARE CROSSING THE MS RIVER ATTM...WITH
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS ALONG THE LINE OF CONVECTION POSING TORNADO
RISK ATTM.

AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH
WITH ERN EXTENT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG FORCING -- INDICATED BY
PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG AND JUST E OF THE MS
VALLEY -- EXPECT ORGANIZED STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS MORE STABLE
AIRMASS...POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 10/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34818770 34918906 35298941 36668855 36718695 34818770

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 17, 7:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Carlisle, Fulton, Hickman85 min
Oct 17, 7:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCaldwell, Calloway, Christian, Crittenden, Daviess, Henderson and 10 more75 min
Oct 18, 2:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPike83 min
Oct 17, 7:01 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Attala, Bolivar, Carroll, Choctaw, Claiborne and 35 more8 hr
Oct 17, 8:23 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlcorn, Benton, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Itawamba, Lafayette and 8 more5 hr
Oct 17, 9:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 42 more92 min
Oct 17, 11:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAttala, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw, Choctaw, Claiborne and 31 more86 min
Oct 18, 1:09 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGeorge, Greene, Perry, Stone96 min
Oct 18, 2:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAmite, Clarke, Covington, Forrest, George, Greene and 12 more65 min
Oct 17, 8:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Cheatham, Chester, Decatur, Dickson and 14 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.