Alert archive / West Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2076
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 18, 2012, 3:07 PM EDT for Pike County, Kentucky; Greene County, Pennsylvania; 25 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 83 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 18, 2012, 3:07 PM EDT (19:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 18, 2012, 4:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 83 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 27 counties
Pike County, KY, Greene County, PA, Barbour County, WV, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Logan County, WV, Marion County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Preston County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wyoming County, WV
The radar
The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 197 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 671 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 222 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 233 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
870
ACUS11 KWNS 181907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181907
MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-182030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL APPALACHIANS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181907Z - 182030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WRN VA...NWD ACROSS WV
INTO EXTREME SWRN PA. PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED
SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG THIS AXIS
WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE SURGE ALONG WEST
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS A RESULT A FEW ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED...A FEW EXHIBITING WEAK
ROTATION/SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST ORGANIZED LONGER LIVED
UPDRAFTS...CURRENT THINKING IS NARROW/WEAK CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT SEVERITY OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH HAIL MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 10/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...
LAT...LON 37488255 38758130 39958039 39747940 38607991 37228144
37488255SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 8:35 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Carlisle, Fulton, Hickman | 85 min |
| Oct 17, 8:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Caldwell, Calloway, Christian, Crittenden, Daviess, Henderson and 10 more | 75 min |
| Oct 17, 9:07 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calloway | 53 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.