Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1986
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 25, 2012, 4:47 PM CDT for 22 counties in Kansas; 22 counties in Missouri; 13 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 25, 2012, 4:47 PM CDT (21:47 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 25, 2012, 6:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 57 counties
Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Barber County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Alfalfa County, OK, Craig County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK, Noble County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Washington County, OK, Woods County, OK
The radar
The Wichita radar (KICT), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 805 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -327 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1911 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 13 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 196 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 404 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
295
ACUS11 KWNS 252147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252147
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-252315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...S-CNTRL/SERN KS...W-CNTRL/SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252147Z - 252315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM NWRN OK E-NEWD ACROSS SERN KS INTO
W-CNTRL/SWRN MO. STRONG TO SVR MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSING
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 21Z SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RESIDING INVOF THE OK PANHANDLE...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
E-NEWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO W-CNTRL MO. SURFACE HEATING S OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 80S AND 90S...HAS AIDED IN
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH CINH FALLING TO NEAR
ZERO. IN ADDITION...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE MLCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS OF 2143Z...WITH GREATER STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY EVENING. MODEST MIDLEVEL
SWLYS OVERSPREADING LOW-LEVEL S-SWLY FLOW IS YIELDING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SVR
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 09/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36649899 37199901 38009710 38709350 38029210 36569343
36139782 36649899SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 3:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Comanche, Harper | 53 min |
| Sep 25, 5:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 8 more | 4 hr |
| Sep 25, 12:51 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Boone, Caldwell, Callaway, Carroll and 26 more | 114 min |
| Sep 25, 12:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Dent, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson, Lincoln and 13 more | 61 min |
| Sep 25, 5:05 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Boone, Callaway, Cole, Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade and 11 more | 6 hr |
| Sep 25, 6:57 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Jefferson, Saint Charles, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Louis and 3 more | 93 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.