Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1966
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 18, 2012, 2:10 PM EDT for 12 counties in New York. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 18, 2012, 2:10 PM EDT (18:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 18, 2012, 3:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Clinton County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -126 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 572 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 251 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 226 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
743
ACUS11 KWNS 181810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181810
NYZ000-181945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181810Z - 181945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...AND THE ISSUANCE OF
A TORNADO WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS
HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW...LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO S-CNTRL NY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIMITING THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
DESTABILIZATION...CONTINUED NWD TRANSPORT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
THE LINE. AND WITH 52 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR PER BURLINGTON VERMONT
VWP DATA...WHICH ALSO INDICATE A LARGE/CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH...EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES/LEWP STRUCTURES WITH SVR WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE OF CONCERN. AS SUCH...THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR THE POTENTIAL DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE
SUPPORTING THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH.
..COHEN/MEAD.. 09/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43187342 42907400 43007458 43417486 43447561 43527613
43927626 44247596 44607537 44867487 44917363 44187346
43187342SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 11:14 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange and 5 more | 91 min |
| Sep 18, 11:19 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Broome, Chenango, Delaware, Fulton, Greene and 8 more | 86 min |
| Sep 18, 12:10 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bronx, Kings, New York, Orange, Queens, Richmond and 2 more | 9 hr |
| Sep 18, 12:57 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland and 11 more | 93 min |
| Sep 18, 1:21 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Madison, Oneida and 4 more | 5 hr |
| Sep 18, 1:56 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kings, New York, Orange, Richmond, Rockland | 64 min |
| Sep 18, 3:26 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and 11 more | 34 min |
| Sep 18, 3:38 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Fulton, Greene, Hamilton and 13 more | 8 hr |
| Sep 18, 4:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Bronx, Chenango, Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess and 24 more | 114 min |
| Sep 18, 6:08 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, Richmond | 67 min |
| Sep 18, 7:42 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Kings, Nassau, Putnam, Queens, Suffolk and 1 more | 63 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.