Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1697

August 4, 20127 counties in Illinois; 13 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 4, 2012, 3:08 AM CDT for 7 counties in Illinois; 13 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 4, 2012, 3:08 AM CDT (08:08 UTC)
Expired
Aug 4, 2012, 5:15 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Bond County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cooper County, MO, Howard County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Pike County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Warren County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 239 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2012-08-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 449 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2012-08-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -8 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
449 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-40 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1801 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
49 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

596 
ACUS11 KWNS 040808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040808 
ILZ000-MOZ000-041015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CDT SAT AUG 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO THROUGH SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 040808Z - 041015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL MO AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN
IL MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. AT THIS TIME OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IL THROUGH
CNTRL MO AND SERN KS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESULTING FROM STRENGTHENING
SWLY LLJ HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. RESERVOIR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS ECNTRL MO INTO SRN IL WITH 1000-1500 CAPE
FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 800 MB. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 7
C/KM 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITH ELEVATED MULTICELL STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 08/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39459035 39078913 38478946 38519099 38609319 39279311
            39459035

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 4, 10:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Boone, Brown, Bureau, Carroll, Cass and 46 more49 min
Aug 4, 10:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBureau, Carroll, Fulton, Hancock, Henderson, Henry and 16 more5 hr
Aug 4, 1:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, DuPage, Fulton and 28 more66 min
Aug 4, 1:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Ford, Grundy and 12 more4 hr
Aug 4, 3:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCook, Lake63 min
Aug 4, 6:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCMadison, Monroe, Randolph, Saint Clair6 hr
Aug 4, 5:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Barton, Camden, Carter, Cedar, Christian and 38 more85 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.