Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1702
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 4, 2012, 5:20 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 85 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 4, 2012, 5:20 PM CDT (22:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 4, 2012, 6:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 85 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 60 counties
Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Marion County, AR, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Labette County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Carter County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Osage County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Washington County, OK
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 12 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 39 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 917 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -319 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1875 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
125
ACUS11 KWNS 042220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042220
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-042345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN OK/SERN KS...SRN/CNTRL MO...FAR NRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 042220Z - 042345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NERN
OK/SERN KS...SRN/CNTRL MO...AND FAR NRN AR. THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 22Z SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
FROM CNTRL IL INTO SWRN MO AND NRN OK. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO
NEAR 110F ALONG THE OK PORTION OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION...WHICH HAS FAVORED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER DURING THE LAST HR OR TWO. FARTHER E OVER SRN
MO AND FAR NRN AR...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING
CUMULUS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE HOTTER/DRIER AIRMASS TO THE W AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER/MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO THE E. SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CUMULUS WILL EVOLVE INTO THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS...AND THEN SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER DURING THE NIGHT.
GIVEN SURFACE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES FROM
90-100F...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ESTIMATES OF MLCAPE EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER THE ERN HALF OF
SRN/CNTRL MO. THE LARGE BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 30 KT WILL FAVOR STRONG TO SVR MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS POSING A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MEANWHILE...STORMS
OCCURRING OVER FAR NERN OK/SERN KS AND SWRN MO MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A HOT AND MORE
STRONGLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
..GARNER/HART.. 08/04/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37009600 38729238 38869049 36909060 36129177 36129455
36449607 37009600SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 3:08 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Cooper, Howard, Lincoln and 7 more | 2 hr |
| Aug 4, 10:26 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Clark, Grundy, Knox, Lewis, Marion and 5 more | 49 min |
| Aug 4, 1:09 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark | 66 min |
| Aug 4, 6:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barry, Barton, Camden, Cedar, Christian, Crawford and 39 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.