Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1564
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 24, 2012, 11:43 AM EDT for 32 counties in Kentucky; 4 counties in Virginia; 6 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 62 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 24, 2012, 11:43 AM EDT (15:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 24, 2012, 12:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 62 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 42 counties
Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Carter County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Buchanan County, VA, City of Norton, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Wise County, VA, Boone County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Wayne County, WV
The radar
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1858 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -130 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1124 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 187 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 154 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 1.7
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
281
ACUS11 KWNS 241543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241543
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-241645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...FAR SRN OH...WRN/SRN WV...SWRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241543Z - 241645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM OF
WW 508 WITHIN THE HOUR.
DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE WITH A HISTORY OF DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS
W-CNTRL OH AND ERN IND WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SEWD/SSEWD AT 60-65
MPH INTO A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH STRONG
DEEP SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY...THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WILL
POTENTIALLY OFFER A LONG-LIVED THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND GUSTS
AS THE LINE CROSSES PARTS OF KY/WV/VA.
..COHEN/HART.. 07/24/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 38438438 38558333 38558205 37888143 36998202 36838321
37188419 38438438SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 10:35 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Kenton, Lewis, Mason and 2 more | 3 hr |
| Jul 24, 11:59 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Greenup, Kenton, Lewis and 3 more | 61 min |
| Jul 24, 12:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Anderson, Bath, Bell, Bourbon, Boyd and 61 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 24, 1:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bath, Bourbon, Boyd, Boyle, Breathitt and 47 more | 53 min |
| Jul 24, 3:25 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Anderson, Bell, Bourbon, Boyle, Breathitt and 44 more | 95 min |
| Jul 24, 4:25 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Breckinridge, Butler, Caldwell, Christian, Crittenden, Daviess and 17 more | 95 min |
| Jul 24, 6:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Allen, Barren, Bell, Breckinridge, Butler and 26 more | 4 hr |
| Jul 24, 11:48 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Frederick and 22 more | 87 min |
| Jul 24, 1:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Albemarle, Alleghany, Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Arlington and 89 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 24, 1:42 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Accomack, Amelia, Brunswick, Caroline, Charles City, Charlotte and 48 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 24, 3:46 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Accomack, Brunswick, Charles City, Dinwiddie, Gloucester, Greensville and 28 more | 89 min |
| Jul 24, 4:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Accomack, Brunswick, Dinwiddie, Gloucester, Greensville, Isle of Wight and 20 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.