Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1572
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 24, 2012, 3:46 PM EDT for 46 counties in North Carolina; 7 counties in South Carolina; 34 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 24, 2012, 3:46 PM EDT (19:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 24, 2012, 5:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 87 counties
Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Camden County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Pender County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Florence County, SC, Horry County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, Accomack County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Charles City County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, York County, VA
The radar
The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1601 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -80 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 888 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 199 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 232 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
158
ACUS11 KWNS 241946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241946
VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-SCZ000-242115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC...FAR NERN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241946Z - 242115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AND FILL
IN OVER SERN VA...ERN NC AND PERHAPS NERN SC. A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITHIN THE HOUR.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WLY SURGE INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS FROM RIC SWWD INTO CNTRL NC. VIGOROUS
STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER NC...WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT NOW INTO SERN VA. STRONG INSTABILITY/HIGH
PWAT...SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/LONG LIVED SEVERE AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL THREAT WITH THESE STORMS UNTIL THEY EXIT THE COAST.
..JEWELL/HART.. 07/24/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...
LAT...LON 33337877 33667987 34137998 34867994 35797896 36817795
37467735 37907642 37967536 37087572 36237561 35687529
35127536 34927600 34537644 33337877SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 1:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alleghany, Ashe, Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry and 3 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 24, 1:12 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Anson, Avery, Buncombe, Burke and 37 more | 93 min |
| Jul 24, 1:42 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Halifax and 8 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 24, 2:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Anson, Avery, Buncombe, Burke and 53 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 24, 4:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret and 24 more | 4 hr |
| Jul 24, 6:46 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calhoun, Clarendon, Lee, Lexington, Richland, Saluda and 1 more | 89 min |
| Jul 24, 11:43 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buchanan, Dickenson, Wise, City of Norton | 62 min |
| Jul 24, 11:48 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Frederick and 22 more | 87 min |
| Jul 24, 12:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Buchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington and 3 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 24, 1:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buchanan, Dickenson, Wise, City of Norton | 53 min |
| Jul 24, 3:25 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth and 5 more | 95 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.