Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 148

February 23, 201242 counties in Kentucky; 11 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 23, 2012, 9:46 PM CST for 42 counties in Kentucky; 11 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 23, 2012, 9:46 PM CST (03:46 UTC)
Expired
Feb 23, 2012, 11:15 PM CST
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 53 counties

Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Russell County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Todd County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Macon County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2012-02-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 18 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2012-02-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 263 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
18 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-30 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2239 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
263 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
471 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

639 
ACUS11 KWNS 240346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240346 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-240515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-SRN KY/NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 240346Z - 240515Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL-SRN KY AND NRN TN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
ALTHOUGH WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...A WATCH WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE NECESSARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY ALONG A LING FROM NEAR
LOUISVILLE SSWWD TO NEAR HOPKINSVILLE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A 994
MB SFC LOW. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF A POCKET OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WCNTRL KY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
MUCAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 70 TO 80 KT/ SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE HAIL THREAT MARGINAL. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ISOLATED
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS
ASSUMING THE CELLS CAN BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED.

..BROYLES.. 02/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36218708 36078586 36318520 37748408 38188421 38378493
            38348579 37918631 37608660 37248691 36908723 36528735
            36218708

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 23, 6:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bath, Boone, Bourbon, Bracken, Campbell and 33 more92 min
Feb 24, 1:00 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Breathitt, Clay, Elliott, Floyd, Harlan and 20 more2 hr
Feb 24, 8:05 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlount, Carter, Cocke, Grainger, Greene, Hamblen and 9 more25 min
Feb 24, 11:00 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Cocke, Greene, Johnson, Sullivan, Unicoi and 1 more60 min
Feb 24, 2:24 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Cocke, Greene, Johnson, Sullivan, Unicoi and 1 more66 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.