Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 146

February 23, 2012Jefferson County, Ohio County, Switzerland County, Indiana; 39 counties in Kentucky; Adams County, Brown County, Clermont County, Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 23, 2012, 7:28 PM EST for Jefferson County, Ohio County, Switzerland County, Indiana; 39 counties in Kentucky; Adams County, Brown County, Clermont County, Ohio. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 23, 2012, 7:28 PM EST (00:28 UTC)
Expired
Feb 23, 2012, 9:00 PM EST
In force
92 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 45 counties

Jefferson County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Anderson County, KY, Bath County, KY, Boone County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Carter County, KY, Clark County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Madison County, KY, Mason County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Powell County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Clermont County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 121 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2012-02-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2012-02-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 556 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1094 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
86 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
556 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
1028 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

441 
ACUS11 KWNS 240029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240028
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-240200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KY...FAR SRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240028Z - 240200Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NE KY AND FAR SRN
OH. A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
FAR SRN IND ENEWD ACROSS NRN KY INTO WV. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL
KY AS SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 75 TO 80 KT EVIDENCED ON WSR-88D VWPS...COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. IF A CLUSTER OF SFC-BASED STORMS CAN
INITIATE ACROSS NCNTRL KY AND PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALONG WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S F AND MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500
J/KG. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MARGINAL FOR A SUSTAINED
SEVERE THREAT AND ANY THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 02/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   39018320 39188443 38938542 38348577 37948547 37688495
            37698397 37828320 38348285 39018320

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 23, 10:46 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boyle, Breckinridge and 36 more89 min
Feb 24, 2:00 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Breathitt, Clay, Elliott, Floyd, Harlan and 20 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.