Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
946 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY HOT
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE VA
MOUNTAINS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL NC. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD
A HARD TIME MAINTAINING THEIR INTENSITY ONCE THEY MOVE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER THEY HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING FURTHER IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF I-40
THROUGH 06Z. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN THE STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT DESPITE SOME NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS DEPICT A DISTURBANCE ON THE PV15 ANALYSIS...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT STORMS LASTING A BIT LONGER. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BECOMING SEVERE. OTHERWISE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF WE DO NOT SEE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW TEMPS
COULD BE A CATEGORY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. SOME OF THE MORE RURAL
LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE PRECIP MAY SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY.  -KC

FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER GA/SC DURING THE DAY WITH THE LEE TROUGH HOLDING OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD STILL BE TO OUR NORTH BUT
EXPECTED TO EASE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC REGION LATE...
DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES RESULTING IN A SLIGHT DEEPENING OF
THE TROUGH AND DROP IN HEIGHTS OF A DOZEN OR SO METERS ALOFT OVER NC
AS THE WESTERLIES GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER. THE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS COUPLED WITH AN UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE DEW
POINT AS WELL AS COLUMN PRECIP WATER WILL GENERATE AT LEAST MODERATE
IF NOT STRONG INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THE
INCREASING WNW MID LEVEL FLOW AND RISING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (TO 25-30
KTS 0-6 KM) SETS THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE... SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST
STORM COVERAGE WITH THE NAM BRINGING STORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS FAVORS AN EVENING TO NIGHTTIME EVENT.
SREF PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETERS SEEM
TO SUPPORT NEITHER OPERATIONAL MODEL... SUGGESTING A FAVORED TIME
FRAME OF 21Z-06Z FOCUSED ON AREAS EAST OF RALEIGH. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND FOCUS TIMING ON THIS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
RANGE... BUT PEOPLE ARE URGED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST
CONDITIONS TOMORROW... PARTICULARLY IF OUTDOOR PLANS ARE INVOLVED.
WITH THE INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH A FAIRLY POTENT CONTRIBUTION
FROM DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE FORM OF MID LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER WINDS JUST TO OUR
NORTH... WE'LL HAVE A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... WITH
DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY THREAT AND HAIL AS THE LESSER THREAT.
WHILE TEMPS SUNDAY MAY TOP OUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FRIDAY OR TODAY
(AND THIS WILL DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON CONVECTION TIMING AND ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS)... WE SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS... WHICH SHOULD MAKE ANY DROP IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARLY
NEGLIGIBLE. SINCE SUCCESSIVE DAYS OF THIS KIND OF HEAT WITH SCANT
LITTLE RELIEF AT NIGHT HAVE BEEN SHOWN TO EXACERBATE THE RISKS OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES... HAVE OPTED TO HOLD THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY... AS THE LIKELY SMALL SLIP IN
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL DO LITTLE TO AMELIORATE THE ADVERSE IMPACTS OF
THIS HEAT WAVE. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD THE EXISTING HEAT WARNING IN
PLACE AS IS... AS WE DO NOT WANT FOLKS TO BECOME COMPLACENT... BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE IT TO AN ADVISORY IF WE END UP
SEEING MORE CLOUDS AND/OR A COOLER TREND TO TEMPS. HIGHS 99-104 AND
LOWS 69-76. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

MIND-UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE TAKES A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE WILL
SLOWLY ABATE AND THAT CENTRAL NC SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MONDAY STILL A GOOD 20-25M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN VICINITY OF THE CENTURY MARK.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR 105
DEGREES NW AND 107-110 IN THE EAST-SE. SINCE THIS WILL BE THE FOURTH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS...WILL GO WITH AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR MONDAY. PREFER WATCH OVER EXTENSION OF
CURRENT WARNING AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS TO HANG AROUND MONDAY TO LIMIT INSOLATION AT TIMES.
ALSO...POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TO INITIATE
SOONER THAN LATE AFTERNOON (THOUGH TIMING OF PERTURBATIONS IN NW
FLOW SUSPECT THIS FAR OUT).

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND
UNSTABLE WITH INCREASINGLY MOST AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 30 PERCENT BUT
COULD BE PERSUADED TO RAISE POPS ANOTHER 10-20 PERCENT IN LATER
FORECAST ISSUANCE IF A TRIGGER MECHANISM CAN BE IDENTIFIED ALOFT.
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 95-99
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS OVER THE
SE U.S. (MAINLY THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE
ECMWF) WITH A WEAKER/BAGGIER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING INTO THEN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING  OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY STRONG INSOLATION SHOULD TRIGGER A 1:4 TO
1:3 THREAT OF A T-STORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING GRADUALLY EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS-LOWER OH
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS GFS
SUGGEST THICKNESSES 5-10M HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THIS SUGGEST AFTERNOON
TEMPS GRADUALLY BACKING OFF EACH DAY WITH MID 90S ANTICIPATED
WED-THU AND LOW-MID 90S FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN (SUB VFR CONDITIONS)... WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS STILL LOW TO MEDIUM. THUS... HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AND WIND GUST TO 25 KTS AT
KINT/KGSO... WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
CONVECTION MOVE INTO OUR AREA. IF THE ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS... GIVEN OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
RESULTANT COVERAGE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF OVER 50 MPH.

LOOKING BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... THE RISK OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH IN AND NEAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:

JULY 1 (SUNDAY)--
RDU: 99 (2005)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 104 (1959)

JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)

ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:

RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)

GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)

FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-O73>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KC/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCZ038-039-073-074-010630-
DAVIDSON-MONTGOMERY-RANDOLPH-STANLY-
130 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS STANLY...RANDOLPH...
MONTGOMERY AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM EDT...

AT 129 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES
WEST OF RICHFIELD...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CONCORD...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE RICHFIELD...NEW
LONDON...NEWSOM...BADIN...BADIN LAKE...ELDORADO...AND...NEW HOPE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

IF ON OR NEAR BADIN OR HIGH ROCK LAKE...SEEK HARBOR AND MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE UP TO 15 MILES
FROM THE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON'T BE
CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8029 3551 8019 3555 8022 3558 8021
      3566 8031 3567 8031 3568 8034 3569 8034
      3571 8033 3572 7991 3548 7984 3528 7994
      3539 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 272DEG 19KT 3550 8042

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCZ010-011-010745-
HALIFAX-WARREN-
255 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
WARREN AND HALIFAX COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM EDT...

AT 252 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM JOHN H. KERR DAM TO CHASE CITY...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 29 MILES NORTHEAST OF VIRGILINA TO 20
MILES NORTH OF HENDERSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WISE...MACON...LAKE
GASTON...LITTLETON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 229 AND 233.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 168 AND 173.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE GASTON...GET OFF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE UP TO 15 MILES
FROM THE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON'T BE
CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

&&

LAT...LON 3651 7788 3651 7781 3648 7776 3649 7764
      3645 7762 3641 7754 3637 7754 3635 7758
      3631 7756 3626 7760 3650 7832 3655 7832
      3655 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 0652Z 291DEG 34KT 3682 7835 3660 7839

MWS